The Eclipse Conspiracy

Makes it all the more astounding that they could predict these things 2k yrs ago.Speaking of conspiracies, why is science good enough to predict an eclipse but not good enough to predict global warming?

Because of the butterfly effect. No butterflies are flapping their wings and creating chaos in orbit.

The solar system is also chaotic; but the timescales on which small changes in initial conditions matter are a lot longer.Thanks for all responses. In conclusion, I need to plan a trip at some point.

We are all going to visit Jar in 2024. He is close to the optimal location.

Road trip! I'm in!

Almost total in 2023 as well.Eclipses visible in McAllen, Texas, USA — Oct 14, 2023 Solar EclipseEclipses visible in McAllen, Texas, USA — Apr 8, 2024 Solar Eclipse

Another case where "almost" just doesn't cut it!

Some solar eclipses are more predictable than others. There is a Saros cycle under which a series of eclipses repeats every 18 years 11 days and 8 hours. Because of the fraction days + fraction, the earth rotates between those cycles so that the path of totality rotates. Every 3 Saros cycles there is another eclipse on the same side of the earth on a roughly parallel path.So eclipses of a given Saros cycle are predictable. But there are more than one saros cycles in operation at a given time[1], so if you are only looking at eclipses on a single Saros cycle you will miss many eclipses. But the first predictions were of subsequent eclipses from the same Saros cycle.A single human is able to observe several repeats of the same Saros cycle, so it is possible for a single human to pick up the pattern during his lifetime.[1] Active Saros cycles for 20 and 21st-century http://members.bitstream.net/bunlion/bpi/ActSaros.html

There are also the 56 Aubrey holes around Stonehenge. These are suspected by some to mark the lunar eclipse cycle. 56 = 19 + 19 + 18, approximating the 18.61 cycle 3 times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_holes

I was going to complain about the math, but I won't.The Wikipedia article indicates that this particular "hole" theory does not work.

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More recent examination, notably by Richard Atkinson, has proved Hawkins largely wrong as it is now established that the different features at the monument that he tried to incorporate into many of his alignment theories were in use at different times and could not have worked alone, the lateness of the installation of the Heel Stone being the final nail in the coffin. Furthermore, the 56-year period is not in fact a reliable method of predicting eclipses and it is now accepted that they never repeat their date and position over three consecutive 18.61-year-long lunar cycles.

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NoNukes writes: Exactly why I used the word "some". I remember watching Dawkins' show back then and being excited that it was possibly being used as a calculator back then.

Yeah, me too. I remember getting excited about some earlier presentations about Stonehenge as an astronomical calculator, but to date, most of the hypotheses that involve the moon have been debunked.In particular, though, the Saros cycle is 18 years 11.3 days. Not 18.61 years. The Saros cycle does work for predicting eclipses.

Greetings,Here we go again . . .I am lucky to live in the path (western New York) of next monday's solar eclipse. I experienced the last partial eclipse in 2017, but it was only 50%-70%. I am greatly excited that this time will be 100% totality for about four minutes!I hope to take some bracketed photos for a minute of the total eclipse, but even if appearing unsuccessful, I will try to just watch and experience the rest of the event sans camera.The only thing left to do is pray to the sun god, the god above all gods, Ra, source of all life and all power, and hope He blesses us with good weather. (Ra, did I ever tell you that your were my most favorite god. Errrm, nice tie you got there, been working out? It shows)Anybody else in the path of the eclipse?

We're a bit north and east of Utica. We'll drive an hour or two northwest to get about 3:30 minutes of totality.We saw a total eclipse in ?89/90 by driving from Boston to New Hampshire. My favorite Irish bartender in the whole world called that morning: Hey man, you want some totality? He drove us up in his madcap Irish fashion to a state park thronged with watchers with excellent scopes and filters. Since he had that world class charming accent, we were invited to share those views.Nothing compares. When the moon shadow sweeps in and the birds and insects hush in the dark, you can feel astronomy in your bones.

I am on the road right now to Indiana to watch the eclipde, On the Road Again.