The Eclipse Conspiracy

Here is a really good interactive animation. Obviously not to scale.Given that the fastest way to get a correct answer is to give an incorrect answer I will posit that it has to do with the orbit of the moon being slightly elliptical and off the plain of the earth's orbit and so the shadow usually misses us altogether. I would guess that over a long enough span of time the distribution would be equal.

Makes it all the more astounding that they could predict these things 2k yrs ago.Speaking of conspiracies, why is science good enough to predict an eclipse but not good enough to predict global warming?