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Author Topic:   Will Trump fail to build "The Wall" if all 7 border Republican Reps oppose funding?
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 60 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 46 of 62 (807451)
05-03-2017 8:17 AM
Reply to: Message 45 by NoNukes
05-03-2017 4:28 AM


Re: On the issue of Faith and what she feels about the future.
I was commenting on the immigration issue.

Marc said that Democrats were more moral during the upheavals of the 50s and 60s.

Faith said that she hates the immigration views of people here.

Those were my response issues.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 4:28 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 47 of 62 (807478)
05-03-2017 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 36 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2017 8:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
That is indeed the unscientific claim we hear often and I honestly think that you are just teeing up an examination as opposed to expressing your actual conclusion.

Well, I also pointed out the Ecological Fallacy.

But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. Also, voting for Trump wasn't a publicly popular position, so I could see why Trump voters would have been keeping their mouths shut - which just adds weight to my opinion.

I haven't analyzed the data, and I'm not saying that the results of the polls are certainly wrong. I'm saying that you haven't presented the analysis either, and that we cannot assume that they are correct - plus I doubt they're accurate because of the reasons above.

So, as it stands, that you have two numbers that are both 51% appears to be merely a coincidence.

Maybe it's not, but you haven't shown that.

Hypothesis Number One

Donald J. Trump has voters that generally refuse to speak to Exit Poll questioners so they get left out from the surveys and thus the field data for the Exit Polls are wrong and thus the networks place weight on misleading and flat out wrong voter turnout opinion.

The final vote talley will be different from what the Exit Polls showed voters opposed and/or supported and Donald Trump will generally perform better in the actual vote on election day than the election day exit polls showed.

(I personally think this hypothesis will be null once we look at all the states data )

Yeah, that'd be cool to see. I eagerly await you supporting your argument.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2017 8:40 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 48 of 62 (807526)
05-03-2017 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 10:35 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole.

What is that "conclusion" based on? And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 10:35 AM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM NoNukes has replied

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 49 of 62 (807527)
05-03-2017 3:47 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by NoNukes
05-03-2017 3:40 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole.

What is that "conclusion" based on?

Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value.

Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type.

Given those two, I think it's fair to say that we can't assume the number accurately represents the whole.

And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position?

By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".


This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by NoNukes, posted 05-03-2017 3:40 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Dr Adequate, posted 05-03-2017 3:58 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM New Cat's Eye has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 373 days)
Posts: 16112
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 50 of 62 (807528)
05-03-2017 3:58 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 3:47 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type.

They certainly seem like shy retiring types who are coy and diffident about expressing their opinions.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 51 of 62 (807591)
05-04-2017 8:26 AM
Reply to: Message 49 by New Cat's Eye
05-03-2017 3:47 PM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value.

Just how many folks do you think show up in most national polls? If you were sampling a city for air quality, what percentage of the city air would you try to run through your equipment?

Statistically, what percentage of 63 million people is required to have a reasonable sample?

By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".

If you did not mean to base your statement on "types", then how are you concluding that they did not participate when clearly some did? You are saying that Trump supporters seem like the kind of folks that "didn't take them?" How can you conclude that?

Your logic is pretty bad here.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-03-2017 3:47 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-04-2017 9:34 AM NoNukes has replied

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 52 of 62 (807601)
05-04-2017 9:34 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by NoNukes
05-04-2017 8:26 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Your logic is pretty bad here.

Not as bad as your comprehension...


This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2017 8:26 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by NoNukes, posted 05-05-2017 11:22 AM New Cat's Eye has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 53 of 62 (807767)
05-05-2017 11:22 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by New Cat's Eye
05-04-2017 9:34 AM


Re: Exit polls showed lots of actual voters answering specific policy questions.
Not as bad as your comprehension...

What I do comprehend is that your attempt to paint the sampling of Trump voters as somehow harder than taking any other sample is without basis.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by New Cat's Eye, posted 05-04-2017 9:34 AM New Cat's Eye has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 60 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 54 of 62 (890333)
01-01-2022 4:24 PM


New poll: 51% of Texas voters support border wall, 45% oppose.
85% of Republicans support it, while 14% oppose.

86% of Democrats oppose it, while 10% oppose

Independents are split 48-48.

I suspect that the opposition to the wall, would be in the majority, if not for the shameful support from so many prominent white Democrats.

Texas is a conservative state, but the support is still about at the marginal level.

In the 2022 Governor's race, Abbott leads O'Rourke 52 to 37.

(Abott crushed the pro-abortion Dennese Richards among Hispanic voters, in 2014. Richard's only "regret" was not opposing gun-rights, as she was essentially neutral on the issue, in 2014. She endorsed Hillary Clinton, in 2016, due to her "progressive" record on guns, verses Sanders)

O'Rourke should apologize for the disgraceful white Democratic support for the wall ( he seems to support removing the El Paso wall, or he used to)


Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-01-2022 5:40 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 60 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 55 of 62 (890334)
01-01-2022 5:40 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by LamarkNewAge
01-01-2022 4:24 PM


Re: New poll: 51% of Texas voters support border wall, 45% oppose.
The exact same poll has Gregg Abbott at a 52% favorable rating with 42% disapproval.

Beto is 36% positive and 47% negative.

Biden is 32% positive and 64% negative.

But the wall is 45% opposed, with just 51% of registered Texas voters supporting.

(A national Quinnipiac poll, from a few months ago, had more registered voters opposing the wall, than supporting it)

So go shove the wall up your butts, you white-partisan Democratic wall-supporters!


This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-01-2022 4:24 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
vimesey
Member
Posts: 1332
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 56 of 62 (894397)
05-15-2022 7:54 AM


Buffalo shooting
Another tragedy, and yet more evidence that the gun lobby's argument that everyone being armed would prevent such tragedies, is a load of shit. (A retired cop shot at the gunman and ended up not stopping him one bit, instead being shot dead himself).
I would be interested to see how much the racist right wing press in America will try to defend the killer. Do they feel there's enough groundswell of racist support to be able to finally fully come out and openly espouse racism.

Edited by vimesey, : (Wrong thread - sorry)


Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by jar, posted 05-15-2022 8:12 AM vimesey has replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 57 of 62 (894399)
05-15-2022 8:12 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by vimesey
05-15-2022 7:54 AM


Re: Buffalo shooting
Except no one is claiming that more guns would prevent such tragedies. The issue is not the guns but rather the root cause of such behavior.

My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by vimesey, posted 05-15-2022 7:54 AM vimesey has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by vimesey, posted 05-15-2022 8:31 AM jar has replied

  
vimesey
Member
Posts: 1332
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 58 of 62 (894400)
05-15-2022 8:31 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by jar
05-15-2022 8:12 AM


Re: Buffalo shooting
I was referencing the NRA's rhetoric about it. Here's an extract from an article in Time about what Wayne LaPierre once said:
The notion that a “good guy with a gun” can prevent a mass shooting gained traction after the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., when NRA then-Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre said, “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun” during a defiant press conference amid rising calls for gun control. Many states have taken that advice to heart in the years since. In states where Republicans have control, laws that loosen gun restrictions increased by 75% in the wake of mass shootings, according to a 2019 Harvard Business School report.

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by jar, posted 05-15-2022 8:12 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 59 by jar, posted 05-15-2022 8:52 AM vimesey has not replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 59 of 62 (894401)
05-15-2022 8:52 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by vimesey
05-15-2022 8:31 AM


Re: Buffalo shooting
Yup, the NRA and Wayne as well as ALL of the current suits are simply grifters. The NRA has long lost any valued purpose.
There are other firearm organizations including the Liberal Gun Club that emphasizes the need for root cause mitigation.

My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by vimesey, posted 05-15-2022 8:31 AM vimesey has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20989
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 60 of 62 (894402)
05-15-2022 9:41 AM


Odd thread choice for this.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by vimesey, posted 05-15-2022 11:58 AM Percy has replied

  
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