Phat Unplugged

That actually looks like a reasonably fair report, although I am not familiar with that web site. Conservative evangelical Christianity is based on exploiting fear. Liberal versions of Christianity are closer to what the gospels teach, although some of them may go too far in the other direction. Theodoric is absolutely right about that.

How about merely supporting truth? Countries south of our border are not sending their criminals and drug addicts across our border. Will you support someone who lies about that? The southern border is not open. Will you support someone who lies about that? The 2020 election was not stolen? Will you support someone who lies about that? Tariffs are not paid for by the exporting country. Will you support someone who lies about that?How about just supporting whoever tells the truth?--Percy

I'm not going to do it, but you might explore what Warren Buffet (just realized the "name in common") thinks about investing in gold. My guess is that any WB gold investment is in gold mining companies stock.Moose

Money does grow in the treasury. Almost sounds like the same thing.It's good to hear that you have come over the Light side of the Force. There are still things that are worth worrying about, but fear mongering is not the way to go. The best way to quash a problem is to solve it, not scare people with it.

Gold HAS to work. It HAS to serve as a store of value or the value will be lost in the masses and redistributed. The gold itself is not the currency. The gold serves only to back the currency (stock, T-bill, whatever) so that he who has the gold can make the rules. Otherwise we have unfettered globalism. [/rant]

Oh I forgot your wishful thinking overrules reality. if the gold backs the currency then the amount of currency is limited by the amount of gold. You can't have $6 worth of currency backed by $3 worth of gold. This is what Percy is saying.

Dont you see how you are wording that? $3.00 *worth*??!! Worth is value. The dollars worth is what is being called into question. Explain to me why a dollar in 1945 is equivalent to as much as $100.00 today? The *worth* of a dollar isnt even stable relative to itself.Granted the critics will say that the dollar is stable and superior relative to other currencies...but that isnt the issue. The issue is precisely what accounts for value, worth and stability? You guys are arguing that the value of anything is ultimately determined by fiat. I call bullshit. Hard assets determine the value of fiat. Fiat never actually determines the value of hard assets.

Yep, it's obvious. The value is stamped right there on every atom of gold.Please tell us the value of an ounce of gold.

So Phat, explain this: Chat GPTThe total value of all the gold on Earth depends on the current gold price and the estimated amount of gold that has been mined.Amount of Gold: According to the World Gold Council, approximately 201,300 metric tons of gold have been mined throughout human history as of 2021. This number is continually updated as more gold is mined annually.Current Price of Gold: As of October 2024, the price of gold is around $1,800 per troy ounce (though this can fluctuate depending on the market). One metric ton equals 32,150.7 troy ounces.Calculation:
Total gold in troy ounces = 201,300 metric tons × 32,150.7 troy ounces per metric ton = 6.47 billion troy ounces.
Value = 6.47 billion troy ounces × $1,800 per troy ounce = approximately $11.65 trillion.And:The total amount of currency in circulation worldwide can be broken down into physical currency (cash: banknotes and coins) and broader money (which includes deposits and other liquid assets). Here's an overview:1. Physical Currency
As of 2024, estimates suggest that around $8 to $9 trillion of physical currency (cash in the form of banknotes and coins) is in circulation globally. This includes all major currencies like the U.S. dollar (USD), euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), and others.2. Broader Money (M2)
Broader money includes physical currency along with checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that are easily convertible to cash. When we consider broader money, often classified as M2 (money supply), the total amount is significantly larger.
The global money supply (M2) is estimated to be around $150 to $170 trillion. This includes not just physical currency but also money held in banks, savings, and short-term deposits.The figures vary depending on the source and measurement methodology, but these estimates provide a general sense of the total amount of currency in circulation worldwide. Keep in mind that these numbers fluctuate with economic conditions, central bank policies, and inflation.So Phat, the actual money in circulation could buy all the gold in the world about 15 time over. What do you think would happen to the global economy if money supply shrunk by a factor of 15 to match the value of all the available gold in the world? (Using the economic concept of all other things being equal)

OK, I did it a bit.Does Warren Buffett Invest In Gold? - Dated April 19, 2024

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The answer to whether Warren Buffett invests in gold is a simple “no.” This probably doesn’t surprise the “Oracle of Omaha” followers, as he’s been very outspoken and open regarding his investment style, strategies and ownership. He’s even spoken directly about whether he would invest in gold numerous times.

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and

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How Does Buffett Invest?

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Warren Buffett is what’s known as a value investor. He seeks to find companies trading below what he feels to be their intrinsic value, assuming that the market will reprice them at higher levels.

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and

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What Has Buffett Said About Investing in Gold?

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Fundamentally, Warren Buffett doesn’t want to own anything that can’t produce something, be it income, revenue or some type of profit. To him, gold is the “classic case” of an investment that doesn’t produce anything. The only way you make money from investing in gold is by hoping someone pays a higher price for it later.

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My "bolding".Warren Buffett’s Berkshire buys Barrick Gold shares – Resource World Magazine - Dated 4 years ago

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Barrick Gold Corp. [ABX-TSX; GOLD-NYSE] shares rallied Monday August 17 following reports that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has added shares of the world’s second largest gold miner to its portfolio.

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According to a regulatory filing, Berkshire has taken a new position in Barrick by adding 20.9 million shares or 1.2% of the company, with a current market value of US$565 million.

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The move follows a correction in the price of gold and silver last week, triggered by COVID-19 vaccine hopes, better-than-expected U.S. data, a stronger dollar, and rising real yields. The yellow metal had previously been trading close to record highs and on Monday was priced at US$1,983.70/oz, up US$51.25 on the day.

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Buffett, billionaire Berkshire Chairman, has previously been cautious about investing directly in gold. So, this investment is viewed as an endorsement of an industry where producers are benefiting from the surging bullion price. That in turn is providing a boost to bottom line profits after costs in the industry have steadied in recent years.

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Seems to agree with my previous message.Moose

I dunno where chatGPT gets its data but you are way off.
As of this morning, Gold is at 2,675.30. That's $1000.00 more than you say. And the forecast is for that to continue going up.This from Yahoo Finance.
Middle East Crisis: Is the US Dollar Ultimate Beneficiary or Gold?
The article suggests that Gold is the real winner.

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The gold spot price has gained around 49% in the last 52 weeks. However, the Dollar Index has seen a loss of around 6% in the same period.(...)After COVID-led strong inflation, central banks adapted to tightening policy, which attracted investors to yields and bonds. However, the Russia-Ukraine war and then the Middle East crisis hit the market. Investors fled safe-haven assets, and gold remained the top asset during risk-averse times.

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Now, the Fed has aggressively cut rates and hinted at another 50 bps cut in the coming two meetings. The ECB, BoE, and SNB have already started reducing borrowing costs. Moreover, central banks have been buying gold. Hence, gold’s demand has risen sharply.

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The coming week is important for gold as Israel has aggressively responded to Lebanon and Iran along with Hamas. Escalation may result in further risk-off sentiment.
Bottom line

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Gold has been the top priority for investors in a risk-averse environment. Moreover, the US dollar has struggled to find ground since August 2024 due to the Fed’s easing policy until mid-2025. Hence, the gold’s uptrend remains intact given the escalated Israel’s conflict in the Middle East.

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You already know that Gold is a safe haven asset, and the market volatility should continue upward with a few profit-taking corrections along the way. One question that I ask is why Central Banks have been so bullish on Gold even as the US Debt spirals upward even faster than gold's rise. Of course you will see less sensationalistic data than I present, largely to calm the public rather than spook them.Note: The Fib is a Fibonacci technical analysis term. The method is beyond my understanding, but it is the support argument used by this Yahoo columnist. Saqib Iqbal Ahmed is a technical analyst...one of many worldwide.I could say that your argument presents another point of view. Nobody knows how global markets will ultimately behave, but people like you want investors who support the dollar. (Never mind how strong it appears! ) Taq has presented a case for the dollar's continued hegemony while other technical analysts have other views. One of my favorite technical analysts is a man named Chris Vermeulen. FYI I am not wealthy. I understand that any of these technical analysts are earning a living like the rest of us. I am a contrarian to the US Dollar "Club", and I believe that the US is heading towards a major correction financially and in general.

Critics would say I am a Doom and Gloomer, but I actually would like my lifestyle (and yours) to continue for twenty more years. I believe that it won't.A few years ago I read a book by Hedge Fund billionaire Ray Dalio which we discussed in the Book Nook. Message 1 The topic sputtered after Theo did one of his infamous reserach rebuttals into Dalio. Message 300 I have since read many biits of news which seem to validate Dalios book rather than disprove it.
Granted Dalio worships money. My basic argument is that we wont grow our way out of debt nor will we reduce it. Once the world loses trust in the US (and its dollar) the dominoes will fall quite rapidly. We may have ten years at best. I can only tell you one thing with any confidance. The gold will never become worthless. The dollar might.

ChatGPT has no connection to the Internet and so does not know current prices. That means Tangle's estimates of gold's total value and of the value of all world currencies is off. If you plug in the current values, which is 244,00 metric tons of gold worldwide at $2,675.40/ounce you get, and You've been asked this question over and over and never answer: how is a mere $23 trillion in gold going to back values ten to twenty times greater?About the rest of your message, you keep giving us names instead of evidence and arguments. You're still looking for that guy who understands what's happening and knows where things are going. Such people don't exist, but plenty of people will tell you that they're your guy. You're just a con job waiting to happen.--Percy

You missed the entire point of the post and failed to answer the question.Plug in any values you think are most up to date, then answer how the total value of all the gold in the world can hold up the total value of all the money in circulation in the world when it's several orders of magnitude less.[I see Percy has updated the sums for you.]

Since you provide us with NFI ("no fucking idea") what that's supposed to be, I'll say a few things about the Fibonacci sequence which I can only assume is what whatever that thing is supposed to be based on.Italian mathematician Fibonacci described it in 1202, but it was also described in India in 200 BCE. Basically, you start with the numbers 0 and 1 and then generate each new number by adding the previous two; therefore:

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0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ...

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Fibonacci sequences show up often and in unexpected places, including in biological systems:

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They also appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruit sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts, though they do not occur in all species.

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We were also taught that unconstrained population growth pretty much follows a Fibonacci sequence -- emphasis on unconstrained, for example when you release a pair of rabbits in Australia where they have no natural predators.That is the kind of population growth used by creationists in their classic PRATT: Human Population Growth. You know, where they claim a constant rate of population growth such that if humans had really been around for a few millions of years then the inner solar system would be packed solid with people -- they quite seriously have made that claim, though some push it out to the orbit of Pluto.  I would love to see creationists demonstrate that by filling a square meter with creationists starting three deep and observe them live and reproduce and create an ever higher pile of humans. Of course, we all know full well (even though it goes right over the creationists' heads which is why only they would be stupid enough to volunteer for the experiment) that everybody beneath the top layer would die from asphyxiation not being able to breathe under the weight of bodies above them. They would die long before they could reproduce and yet this stupid claim itself refuses to die.A more accurate population growth model would be what my source (Michael Olnick, An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences, 1978, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.) called the Logistics Model; as I presented it in my 1990 page on the population claim, The Bunny Blunder:

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Olnick applies this in the Logistic Model, in which the rate of population growth depends on the size of the population and on the ability of the environment to support that population. The Logistic Model postulates a maximum population size that the environment can support, called its "carrying capacity," such that the exponential rate of population growth decreases (i.e. slows down) as the population approaches the carrying capacity of the environment, eventually leveling off to zero-growth at the carrying capacity. This is a much more realistic model and fits the U.S. population curve from 1790 to 1950 quite well.

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So the human population, like the rabbit population, can indeed be millions of years old and still be no larger than we find it at present; we need but acknowledge the effects of its environment's low carrying capacity for most of its history. Our population's explosive growth these past few centuries can be attributed to the sudden increase of the carrying capacity due mainly to applied technology, such as agriculture and, more recently, sanitation and medicine.

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Hence, using Fibonacci to describe growth can only be valid when that growth is not constrained. That is not true of the market.Who knows WTF your source was trying to do with it?