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Author Topic:   Phat Unplugged
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9011
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 421 of 520 (920203)
09-12-2024 8:32 AM
Reply to: Message 416 by Phat
09-10-2024 10:59 PM


Financial Future
As I noted earlier. There are many economists (who actually know stuff) who agree with you about the US (and other's) financial future.
Here is a bit from "The Economist" this week:
It is safe to say that neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump will win November’s presidential election by pledging fiscal prudence. The deficit and debt are afterthoughts for most Americans these days. And proposals from both candidates for cleaning up the country’s finances are fundamentally unserious. Mr Trump has talked about using cryptocurrency or drilling for oil in order to pay off the national debt—ideas that amount to utter nonsense. Although Ms Harris has vowed to reduce the deficit, she has declined to offer any substantive plan for doing so.
Still, there comes a time in an election campaign when the candidates have aired enough policy ideas that budget wonks can start to work out who would preside over a bigger deficit. One such estimate, released on August 26th by the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a non-partisan research group, seems to leave little doubt that Ms Harris would be far more fiscally responsible than Mr Trump. According to its calculations, Mr Trump’s economic agenda would increase federal deficits by $5.8trn over the next decade, nearly five times as much as Ms Harris’s platform, which would add $1.2trn to the deficit during the same period.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 416 by Phat, posted 09-10-2024 10:59 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 422 by Percy, posted 09-12-2024 1:56 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22850
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 422 of 520 (920206)
09-12-2024 1:56 PM
Reply to: Message 421 by NosyNed
09-12-2024 8:32 AM


Re: Financial Future
NosyNed writes:
It is safe to say that neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump will win November’s presidential election by pledging fiscal prudence. The deficit and debt are afterthoughts for most Americans these days. And proposals from both candidates for cleaning up the country’s finances are fundamentally unserious. Mr Trump has talked about using cryptocurrency or drilling for oil in order to pay off the national debt—ideas that amount to utter nonsense. Although Ms Harris has vowed to reduce the deficit, she has declined to offer any substantive plan for doing so.
Complaints like these have been the constant refrain of economists for literally centuries. The British caused the Revolutionary War by trying to tax the colonists to help pay down the incredible national debt they had incurred from their wars with the French.
By and large, the national debts of countries are not typically paid off. Rather, national debts gradually become smaller and smaller percentages of GPD by growing the economy. A healthy economy is how a national debt is "paid down," not by running surpluses. Surpluses are one way that recessions happen, and they can send a country into a whirlpool of cycles of diminishing national income followed by diminishing tax income followed by increasing national debt that eventually suck a country into default.
We had to do what we had to do to get through covid, which meant running huge deficits. Now a period of fiscal responsibility combined with stimulative economic policies are required so that we can gradually grow ourselves out of debt.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 421 by NosyNed, posted 09-12-2024 8:32 AM NosyNed has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 423 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-12-2024 6:28 PM Percy has replied
 Message 425 by Taq, posted 09-13-2024 11:05 AM Percy has not replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3962
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 423 of 520 (920211)
09-12-2024 6:28 PM
Reply to: Message 422 by Percy
09-12-2024 1:56 PM


Re: Financial Future
Rather, national debts gradually become smaller and smaller percentages of GPD(sic) by growing the economy. A healthy economy is how a national debt is "paid down," not by running surpluses.
I got to "sic" Percy! Or perhaps that's the French version of GDP.
The above quoted is probably true, but it kind of sounds like a Ponzi scheme to me.
A growing economy seems to require a growing population and especially a growing use of resources. To keep thing going, we need to ever produce more crap. Somewhere down the road there's going to be an implosion???
Moose

"IF YOU DON'T WANT POLITICS GETTING INTO CRIMINAL TRIALS, DON'T LET CRIMINALS GET INTO POLITICS" - Moose
Professor, geology, Whatsamatta U
Evolution - Changes in the environment, caused by the interactions of the components of the environment.

"Do not meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer." - Bruce Graham

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith

"Yesterday on Fox News, commentator Glenn Beck said that he believes President Obama is a racist. To be fair, every time you watch Glenn Beck, it does get a little easier to hate white people." - Conan O'Brien

"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable." - John Kenneth Galbraith

It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. - Paul Krugman (as stolen from Chiroptera's signature)

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes" - Ronald Reagan (1984)

"I know a little about a lot of things, and a lot about a few things, but I'm highly ignorant about everything." - Moose


This message is a reply to:
 Message 422 by Percy, posted 09-12-2024 1:56 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 424 by Percy, posted 09-13-2024 7:49 AM Minnemooseus has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22850
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 424 of 520 (920212)
09-13-2024 7:49 AM
Reply to: Message 423 by Minnemooseus
09-12-2024 6:28 PM


Re: Financial Future
Minnemooseus writes in Message 423:
A growing economy seems to require a growing population and especially a growing use of resources.
The fact that population growth averages less than 1% per year while GDP growth averages around 3% per year (it of course varies widely) means that population growth is only one contributor to GDP. The other key contributor, and a more significant one, is productivity. Here's a graph of U.S. productivity from 1950 to 2015:
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 423 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-12-2024 6:28 PM Minnemooseus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 426 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-13-2024 10:50 PM Percy has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10255
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 7.5


Message 425 of 520 (920213)
09-13-2024 11:05 AM
Reply to: Message 422 by Percy
09-12-2024 1:56 PM


Re: Financial Future
Percy writes:
By and large, the national debts of countries are not typically paid off. Rather, national debts gradually become smaller and smaller percentages of GPD by growing the economy. A healthy economy is how a national debt is "paid down," not by running surpluses.
Japan could be an interesting example. The Japanese economy has been stagnant for decades now, and they have one of the highest debt to GDP ratios among developed nations, somewhere around 250%. For the doom-and-gloomers, That's about 2.5 times larger than the US debt, and Japan does not have the de facto global currency. Japan isn't on fire right now. Their future certainly looks challenging given their demographics, but Japan doesn't look anything like a post-apocalyptic landscape.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 422 by Percy, posted 09-12-2024 1:56 PM Percy has not replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3962
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 8.7


(3)
Message 426 of 520 (920215)
09-13-2024 10:50 PM
Reply to: Message 424 by Percy
09-13-2024 7:49 AM


The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
Minnemooseus writes in Message 423:
A growing economy seems to require a growing population and ESPECIALLY a growing use of resources.
You didn't respond to the part that I've now "bolded".
So the per capita GDP is also growing. Which means the that per capita GDConsumption is also growing. So the economy is based on ever growing use of resources to support ever growing production and consumption (and waste disposal). Over growing production and consumption. Wallowing in production and consumption far beyond practical needs.
A lot of production of what amounts to landfill bound waste.
In medicine there's a term for uncontrolled and excessive growth - CANCER. We operate in a cancer economy.
Moose

This message is a reply to:
 Message 424 by Percy, posted 09-13-2024 7:49 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 427 by Theodoric, posted 09-14-2024 7:50 AM Minnemooseus has replied
 Message 428 by Percy, posted 09-14-2024 8:01 AM Minnemooseus has seen this message but not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9471
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 6.3


Message 427 of 520 (920217)
09-14-2024 7:50 AM
Reply to: Message 426 by Minnemooseus
09-13-2024 10:50 PM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
But that is how economies work. I am not sure a moral judgement is helpful in this conversation.
Also, nations and economies are not analogous to human bodies. Your statements about cancer seem to be similar to the use of the term "social darwinisn". So removed from the original to have no meaning.
I may rewrite this. Not sure if I adequately explained.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 426 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-13-2024 10:50 PM Minnemooseus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 429 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-14-2024 10:03 PM Theodoric has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22850
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 428 of 520 (920218)
09-14-2024 8:01 AM
Reply to: Message 426 by Minnemooseus
09-13-2024 10:50 PM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
Minnemooseus writes in Message 426:
Minnemooseus writes in Message 423:
A growing economy seems to require a growing population and ESPECIALLY a growing use of resources.
You didn't respond to the part that I've now "bolded".
Had you said, "Water boils at 100°C," I wouldn't have responded to that, either.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 426 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-13-2024 10:50 PM Minnemooseus has seen this message but not replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3962
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 429 of 520 (920227)
09-14-2024 10:03 PM
Reply to: Message 427 by Theodoric
09-14-2024 7:50 AM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
But that is how economies work. I am not sure a moral judgement is helpful in this conversation.
So, thrash the Earth, if it keeps the economy working? I guess that also includes not being concerned about global warming / climate change.
Also, nations and economies are not analogous to human bodies. Your statements about cancer seem to be similar to the use of the term "social darwinisn"
But the functions of humanity does seem to be a disease inflicted upon the Earth's resources and ecology.
Maybe relevant? -
Behavioral sink - Wikipedia
This Old Experiment With Mice Led to Bleak Predictions for Humanity’s Future
Escaping the Laboratory: The Rodent Experiments of John B. Calhoun
& Their Cultural Influence
Moose

This message is a reply to:
 Message 427 by Theodoric, posted 09-14-2024 7:50 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 430 by Theodoric, posted 09-14-2024 11:36 PM Minnemooseus has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9471
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 6.3


Message 430 of 520 (920231)
09-14-2024 11:36 PM
Reply to: Message 429 by Minnemooseus
09-14-2024 10:03 PM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
o, thrash the Earth, if it keeps the economy working? I guess that also includes not being concerned about global warming / climate change.
Nice strawman. Not worth responding to.
But the functions of humanity does seem to be a disease inflicted upon the Earth's resources and ecology.
Do you have a proposal to deal with this or just going to bitch?
Nope. None of the links are relevant.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 429 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-14-2024 10:03 PM Minnemooseus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 431 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-15-2024 1:42 AM Theodoric has replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3962
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 431 of 520 (920235)
09-15-2024 1:42 AM
Reply to: Message 430 by Theodoric
09-14-2024 11:36 PM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
So, thrash the Earth, if it keeps the economy working? I guess that also includes not being concerned about global warming / climate change.
Nice strawman. Not worth responding to.
You're denying that keeping the GDP ever growing does not have a severe adverse affect on the Earth's ecology?
But the functions of humanity does seem to be a disease inflicted upon the Earth's resources and ecology.
Do you have a proposal to deal with this or just going to bitch?
I see a problem. I don't see a solution. I think the Earth's ecology is going down the toilet (aka "is fucked").
I have no children. My little branch of the human tree is not going to be involved. Thoughts and prayers to your descendants.
Moose
ADDED BY EDIT -
Quoting myself from above:
You're denying that keeping the GDP ever growing does not have a severe adverse affect on the Earth's ecology?
I now see I made a huge blunder in how I phrased that - In effect, the "denying" and "not" functioned as a double negative, making the statement to say the opposite of what I intended. It should have been:
You're denying that keeping the GDP ever growing does have a severe adverse affect on the Earth's ecology?
or
You're saying that keeping the GDP ever growing does not have a severe adverse affect on the Earth's ecology?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 430 by Theodoric, posted 09-14-2024 11:36 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 432 by Theodoric, posted 09-15-2024 9:14 AM Minnemooseus has not replied
 Message 433 by Percy, posted 09-15-2024 10:06 AM Minnemooseus has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9471
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 6.3


Message 432 of 520 (920238)
09-15-2024 9:14 AM
Reply to: Message 431 by Minnemooseus
09-15-2024 1:42 AM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
You're denying that keeping the GDP ever growing does not have a severe adverse affect on the Earth's ecology?
Nope. That is your strawman argument. There are ways to grow an economy and be environmentally conscious. Because our current economic system does not, does not preclude that possibility. Lots of people are working on that.
I see a problem. I don't see a solution. I think the Earth's ecology is going down the toilet (aka "is fucked").

I have no children. My little branch of the human tree is not going to be involved. Thoughts and prayers to your descendants.
I refuse to give up. I too will have no descendants. My kids are all adopted. My line ends with me. I am not so selfish to think that evolution has anything to do with my personal genetics. Evolution cares nothing about individuals. It works on the species level.
We will work without you. Your help is not needed. If we fail, we fail. At least we put in the effort.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 431 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-15-2024 1:42 AM Minnemooseus has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22850
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 433 of 520 (920240)
09-15-2024 10:06 AM
Reply to: Message 431 by Minnemooseus
09-15-2024 1:42 AM


Re: The Gross National Product, getting more and more gross
Though we express it differently, I think we agree. The world is already fucked. There isn't enough time or enough determination to turn things around and keep the world from passing that 1.5°C threshold. The poster-child for climate change, ironically enough politically, is going to to Florida, which in 50 years will look like this:
Most of Miami will be gone, though some will remain as an island. Fort Lauderdale will be gone, though much of Boca Raton will survive. Fort Myers, the recent target of so many storms and so much flooding, will finally be at peace with only the sound of an occasional wave breaking the silence.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 431 by Minnemooseus, posted 09-15-2024 1:42 AM Minnemooseus has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 434 by Phat, posted 09-16-2024 8:08 AM Percy has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18549
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 434 of 520 (920259)
09-16-2024 8:08 AM
Reply to: Message 433 by Percy
09-15-2024 10:06 AM


Political Ideologies Expressed
Climate change is but one area of contention in our future. My concern is for the thinking process and subsequent action of the young people who (let's face it) *will be in charge*of our future.
Of course, we need to get rid of Trump, but conservatism and conservative arguments continue to impress me when they make their case against unbridled insanity.
A Case in point: A Canadian government-sponsored think tank known as
Generation Squeeze. Per its website,
quote:
Generation Squeeze is a charitable Think and Change Tank promoting well-being for all generations. We're championing generational fairness to preserve what Canadians hold sacred—a healthy childhood, home, and planet—so we all leave a proud legacy.
I listen to a social commentator named Jay Martin. Recently, he had a column on his website titled I Steal Only What I Can't Afford In his essay, Jay describes the history of his own family and the struggles which they had to endure to preserve their own lives. He makes a valid point concerning the government-sponsored "Think Tank" which in his opinion is fostering division between the young and the mature. I tend to agree. I see conflict every day at my job and it concerns me that this latest generation is being trained up in what I consider to be bad ideology. Jay puts his argument this way:
quote:
My core issue with organizations like Generation Squeeze is that they are training people to be victims instead of training people to work hard and overcome.
They are robbing people of the opportunity to believe in themselves, instead convincing them to point the finger at the “privileged class,” who *literally* fought and died for our lives today.
This is what gets me too. Young people are taught to believe that they are victims rather than being taught to believe in themselves and be unafraid to work harder.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 433 by Percy, posted 09-15-2024 10:06 AM Percy has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 435 by Theodoric, posted 09-16-2024 12:53 PM Phat has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9471
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 6.3


(1)
Message 435 of 520 (920263)
09-16-2024 12:53 PM
Reply to: Message 434 by Phat
09-16-2024 8:08 AM


Re: Political Ideologies Expressed
bullshit. This new generation is no different from every other generation. There are hard workers and lazy POS's in every generation. A certain % of every generation thinks they are entitled. The generation following me is the first generation in our national history that does not look forward to a brighter future than their parents.
You and this idiot are just perpetuating the right wing tradition of othering other people. This is no different than JD Vance claiming Haitians are eating pets. You and this idiot are lumping all young people together so you can feel higher on your made up social pecking order. He is just another grifter pushing dubious financial advice and investments. You claim you have no money, why do you watch these shysters.
Instead of whining and bitching, why don't you use your privilege to leave them a better world than we have now.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 434 by Phat, posted 09-16-2024 8:08 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 436 by Phat, posted 09-19-2024 2:57 PM Theodoric has replied

  
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