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Author Topic:   Introduction to Genetics
JonF
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Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 152 of 236 (719811)
02-18-2014 12:13 PM
Reply to: Message 151 by Taq
02-18-2014 11:04 AM


Paradigm Clash
She doesn't think that chimps have 40 million places of damage relative to their "original ancestors".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 151 by Taq, posted 02-18-2014 11:04 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
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JonF
Member
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


(1)
Message 217 of 236 (720161)
02-20-2014 3:15 PM
Reply to: Message 215 by Faith
02-20-2014 12:15 PM


Re: Just some examples of assumptive mystification versus genuine science
Sorry, Faith, but there is no proof in any science. Just varying degrees of support and confidence. That's just a fact.
E.g. the age of the Earth is not proven but it is so well supported that there is no actual possibility that it will be disproven. It is as solid as the Sun coming up tomorrow. But it has not been proven.

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JonF
Member
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 226 of 236 (720690)
02-26-2014 2:27 PM
Reply to: Message 225 by Faith
02-26-2014 1:49 PM


Re: Mouse Genetics
.
Edited by JonF, : Submitted too soon

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 Message 225 by Faith, posted 02-26-2014 1:49 PM Faith has not replied

  
JonF
Member
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


(2)
Message 227 of 236 (720692)
02-26-2014 2:35 PM
Reply to: Message 225 by Faith
02-26-2014 1:49 PM


Re: Mouse Genetics
How did the mutant allele occur just in time to form a dark population of mice? Mutations ARE random and unpredictable aren't they? Or not?
Short answer: luck. Luck happens. People win the lottery. Most don't.
If it had not arisen mice wouldn't have moved into the black lava ecosystem. Something else might have. Or the mice might have died out completely if the black lava wiped out the brown desert. All sorts of other scenarios are possible. One scenario happened. Randomly.
Remember that the vast, vast majority of species, estimated well over 90%, did not get a beneficial mutation in time to avoid extinction.
So it pairs with an ll and could make four babies, two lls and two Dls. At best.
Yup. Or maybe four LLs or three LLs and a DL. All the DLs are dark. So what?
And what's to stop this predator that has kept the population light forever from just picking off those two little dark babies as soon as they are born?
Nothing. Luck of the draw.
And what's to stop this predator that has kept the population light forever from just picking off those two little dark babies as soon as they are born?
You have no idea what the probability of any appropriate mutation, the ones discussed or others that might have similar effects, is. Depending on how many different mutations would have the effect and other factors, the odds will still be small but still reasonably possible. Or not. It just doesn't matter. Even if the odds are minuscule, events that are astoundingly improbable happen all the time.
So for whatever reason that other gene is the one where the rare allele happened to show up in that other population. The rare naturally occurring allele, not a mutation. The odds are far more against mutation than against my scenario.
The probability of your scenario, an allele that has persisted for thousands of years against selective pressure, is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000.
The odds are against the whole scenario.
You don't have a glimmer of a clue what the odds are.
Remember, almost all species lose the evolution lottery. Winners are as rare as state lottery winners.

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