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Author Topic:   Applying Ocam's Razor To BB vs Biblical ID Creationism and EvC
ringo
Member (Idle past 430 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


(1)
Message 61 of 65 (663341)
05-23-2012 12:34 PM
Reply to: Message 57 by Buzsaw
05-23-2012 7:34 AM


Re: O.R. Supportive To. Biblical ID Creationism
Buzsaw writes:
O.R. would say that if the Jews....
You seem to be trying to say that the simplest explanation for the survival of the Jewish people and the reestablishment of the Jewish state is that God did it.
The problem with that "expanation" is that it relies on a Mystery. You can't simplify anything by adding an entity that is too complex for us to understand.
God may be the right explanation but He isn't the simplest one.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4039
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.0


Message 62 of 65 (663347)
05-23-2012 1:05 PM
Reply to: Message 57 by Buzsaw
05-23-2012 7:34 AM


Re: O.R. Supportive To. Biblical ID Creationism
Wow, Buz.
Let me give you a little help. I understand what you're trying to say...you're just not saying it very well. I don't necessarily agree (I'll expand on that at the end), but this might be a better way to communicate what you're trying to say:
In the case of a major dispersion of members of a low-population nation, the most likely result is that the culture of that small nation will be lost as its former citizens mingle with the citizens of their new homes. Their cultural identity will, over time, be lost and subsumed into the cultures of their individual destinations.
In the case of the Jews, this did not entirely happen. Many Jews kept their culture mostly intact, despite living for multiple generations in "foreign" lands. This culminated in a mass return to their ancestral homeland after WWII, when Israel was re-created as a nation.
Because this course of events was unlikely, any hypothesis that would result in a higher probability of the Jews retaining their cultural identity and returning to their ancestral nation after many generations of exile will have a probabilistic advantage over hypotheses that count that probability as low. The degree of that advantage is proportional with the degree that the retention of cultural identity was previously considered improbable.
There is one specific framework of hypotheses which predicted, in advance, that the Jews would be exiled from Israel and yet would return many generations later with their cultural identity still mostly intact.
Biblical prophecy (I'll leave inserting chapter and verse to you, Buz) predicted that this very unlikely sequence of events would occur, in advance.
Since hypotheses that correctly predict an unlikely set of observations or events have a probabilistic advantage over hypotheses that did not successfully predict those same events, this is supportive evidence (not proof) that those Biblical prophecies are based upon an accurate model - in other words, that the "Biblical record" is true. The strength of the support of this evidence is proportional to the degree of improbability of the events correctly predicted as compared to other hypotheses; other evidence must be considered independently and may shift the probability of the accuracy of the entire Biblical record up or down beyond the successful prediction of the repatriation of the Jews.
While Occam's Razor suggests that hypotheses that do not introduce extraneous terms or entities are more likely than those that do, the hypothetical framework of the Biblical record requires the existence of a deity, considered extraneous by naturalistic hypotheses.
If the Biblical record hypothetical framework is shown to be significantly more likely to accurately reflect reality than naturalism, this would then by extension provide supporting evidence for the existence of a deity; the existence of God would be included in the most parsimonious explanation for the accuracy of the Biblical record.
Does that seem to match what you're trying to say, Buz? It's not even necessarily wrong.
The problem is that I think you're overestimating the degree of unlikelihood for specific events like the retention of Jewish cultural heritage, or the reformation of the Israeli nation. Many people who emigrate to foreign countries keep their cultural heritage alive over multiple generations despite pressure to conform. This happens for several reasons, but those relevant to the Jews would likely be the formation of Jewish communities within foreign nations, racist and religious exclusion of Jews preventing integration into the surrounding culture, and the fact that the reformation of Israel was driven in large part by believers in the very prophecy you mention.
The proportional difference in likelihood between the Biblical record hypothetical framework and more naturalistic explanations for those same events is not nearly as significant as I think you believe. That being the case, I don't find the exile and return of the Jews to Israel to be particularly strong supportive evidence for the Biblical record as a whole - certainly not sufficient to overwhelm more parsimonious explanations.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity. — Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of
variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the
outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." Barash, David 1995.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by Buzsaw, posted 05-23-2012 7:34 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10021
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 63 of 65 (663348)
05-23-2012 1:05 PM
Reply to: Message 61 by ringo
05-23-2012 12:34 PM


Re: O.R. Supportive To. Biblical ID Creationism
You seem to be trying to say that the simplest explanation for the survival of the Jewish people and the reestablishment of the Jewish state is that God did it.
It appears that Buzz's mistake is even worse than that. Buzz is confusing facts and explanations. OR applies to explanations, not the facts. The facts in this case are the historical facts of the Jewish nation over the last 2,000 years. OR does not apply to these facts. OR has nothing to do with these facts. They are simply facts. OR makes no predictions on whether a nation will stay intact or disappear, as Buzz is trying to suggest.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by ringo, posted 05-23-2012 12:34 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
Alfred Maddenstein
Member (Idle past 3985 days)
Posts: 565
Joined: 04-01-2011


Message 64 of 65 (677489)
10-30-2012 8:08 AM
Reply to: Message 45 by Rahvin
05-21-2012 11:57 AM


Misplaced misconceptions.
What is that substance infinite amount of which you are talking about?
All misconceptions are entirely yours here, Rahv.
Time is but a rigid sequence. An abstraction of motion. Location after location and the memory of such. Nothing more. That line infinitely extending into the past or its projection into the future is all your imagination. Some effects accumulating as a function of that line is but your fancy idea. Time could be used as an alternative measure of distance but in that case, there is no single direction. Anywhere you look far enough is where some past is located. To think that all places at the same distance from here belong to the same past is silly. That idiocy is though the height of bigbangist wisdom.
What do you mean by energy not available any more? Not available to whom? And what do you mean by energy in the first place? Think about that.
The Universe is a closed system according to you? Closed by what? What is closed could be opened. The Universe is neither. Closed, isolated and so on does not apply here. Isolated from what? There is nothing else to be isolated from in the case of the Universe.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Admin
Director
Posts: 13014
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 1.9


(1)
Message 65 of 65 (677496)
10-30-2012 8:47 AM
Reply to: Message 64 by Alfred Maddenstein
10-30-2012 8:08 AM


Moderator Request
Hi Alfred,
As I have requested in other threads where you recently attempted to begin participation, because people are having so much trouble making sense of your posts I'd like you to restrict your participation to just a few threads. Please stop participating in this thread. Thanks.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
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