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Author Topic:   When Earth’s population was 10,000 persons
caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 142 of 194 (654244)
02-28-2012 11:10 AM
Reply to: Message 141 by goldenlightArchangel
02-27-2012 2:45 PM


Re: Population growth over the hills and far away
Knowing from real life that families formed of a few dozen people were able of supporting themselves, that's evidence that their children and the children of their children would be capable of doing the same thing for themselves.
It's evident that familes formed of only a few dozen people never needed the capability of supporting more than just themselves. For the generations to come were capable of giving the same support for their children. Observation shows that they took care of themselves and their own.
If a population of a few dozen people are capable of supporting themselves, their population with persist. And you're right - they don't need the capability to support anyone else - just their own group.
If, however, they're incapable of supporting anyone else, their population cannot grow. There's a limit to how many people an environment will support, until you develop technologies that can increase the food supply.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 141 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 02-27-2012 2:45 PM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 143 by JonF, posted 02-28-2012 11:41 AM caffeine has replied
 Message 144 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 02-28-2012 4:21 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 145 of 194 (654306)
02-29-2012 3:58 AM
Reply to: Message 143 by JonF
02-28-2012 11:41 AM


Re: Population growth over the hills and far away
A few dozen is an awfully small gene pool. Serious risk of dying out.
This few dozen people wouldn't exist in isolation. There would be gene flow between them and adjacent populations. The point being made is simply that population size doesn't increase if the enviornment lacks the capacity to support a larger population.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 146 of 194 (654307)
02-29-2012 4:09 AM
Reply to: Message 144 by goldenlightArchangel
02-28-2012 4:21 PM


Re: Population growth over the hills and far away
There have always been limits to how many people an area will support. It is only in the modern age that we have overcome many of them, to allow our population to rise to such a large level.
If you're living in a hunter-gatherer society, the amount of food available to support your population depends on how much food there is around. This is a simple and undeniable fact. If the amount of food in a given area which people are able to obtain is only enough to feed 200 people a year, then only 200 people can live in that area. If there are more, some will starve, or kill each other fighting over the scarce resources.
The carrying capacity of each area varies a lot, of course. Hunter-gatherers in the Pacific Northwest could live at much higher densities than those in the Kalahari, because there's a lot more food lying around for the pickings. But once you're eating everything available then there's nothing more to eat!
The only way you can increase the population beyond an environment's carrying capacity is to increase the carrying capacity, usually by some technological innovation. Better hunting techniques that allow you to catch more animals to eat. Or, the one you mention - the domestication of animals and crops. Before there was farming in Europe, all Europe's fertile land was already occupied; by hunter-gatherers. But there were less peopl then, than there were after farmers made this fertile land produce more available food.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 150 of 194 (654570)
03-02-2012 6:23 AM
Reply to: Message 148 by goldenlightArchangel
02-29-2012 4:24 PM


Re: Population growth over the hills and far away
The generations to come were capable of giving the same support for their children because the less technology a farmer had, the more manpower a farmer required to do the job.
And the more children a farmer had, the more labor force was available for them to increase the production of the farm.
On this, given the lack of technology in those days and the need of labor force, the population growth was a solution and not a problem.
Let's try a thought experiment. Imagine we have a volcanic island, out in the ocean miles away from anywhere. The island is approximately two acres square. The land is quite fertile, thanks to the volcanic dust, so a lot of the land can be farmed. The inhabitants have basic farming technology. Let's put 200 people on that island, and then gradually keep adding more.
As more people are added, there are more hands to work the farmland. Do you believe, then, that we could keep adding people indefinitely and that the food supply would indefinitely increase, or not?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 02-29-2012 4:24 PM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 151 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-02-2012 6:55 AM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 152 of 194 (654574)
03-02-2012 7:16 AM
Reply to: Message 151 by goldenlightArchangel
03-02-2012 6:55 AM


Re: Population growth over the hills and far away
I don't need to believe. I already know. What about turning back time to 49,000 years ago and put them on an island called England
I was using a simplified hypothetical example to make plain the fact that there are constraints on population - it doesn't simply grow magically and consistently.
But if, instead, you just want to look at an actual historical example of population, fine. These figures are for the population of Great Britain. Up till 1801, they're based on a consensus figure from the Insitute of Historical Research, of the University of London.
43: 1,000,000
410: 1,500,000
865: 1,500,000
1000: 1,500,000
1348: 3,500,000
1350: 2,250,000
1642: 6,000,000
1649: 5,700,000
1801: 10,942,646
1851: 27,368,736
1911: 45,221,615
Notice that the population did not grow at any steady or consistent rate. It was reduced by plagues (1350) and war (1649) and, for long periods, remained basically stable. The population at the time of the Norman Conquest, as estimated from archaeological remains, historical records and what we know of agricultural technology at the time, was about the same as it had been 700 years earlier at the time of the Romans.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 157 of 194 (654885)
03-05-2012 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 155 by goldenlightArchangel
03-05-2012 7:00 AM


Re: Beyond the thin red line — Population growth Model
For some reason, not shown by the natural selection theory (for the origin of the Human body), 70 thousand years ago in Europe the Human population would have reached 2,000 persons. A number that would not increase until 49 thousand years ago.
First things first. The 'natural selection theory' says nothing about the population of Europe 70 thousand years ago. This is the province of historical demography.
And from where did you pull these random figures?
. . . . . . . . . . 70 thousand years ago . . . . . . . 2,000 persons
. . . . . . . . . . 65 thousand years ago . . . . . . . ?
. . . . . . . . . . 60 thousand years ago . . . . . . . ?
. . . . . . . . . . 55 thousand years ago . . . . . . . ?
. . . . . . . . . . 50 thousand years ago . . . . . . . 2,000 persons
The people who try and figure out pre-historical populations do so by considering how many people a land can support, based on the technology they used at the time and the climate at the time.
Here's the abstract of a study from the Journal of Archaeological Science which tries and estimate the population of Europe in prehistoric times. It deals not with the time period you mentioned, but the one immediately following it. They looked at the distribution of archaelogical sites in this period, and at the climate records, and obtained a figure of around about 5,000 people between the time from 50,000 to 25,000 years ago. There's a wide margin of error included in their calculations, since this is obviously difficult to be precise about, so their 95% confidence interval puts the population between 1,700 and 37,700 people.
After this, the population would have decreased, because we know that the climate got colder and made much of the continent uninhabitable - they retreated into refuges. Once things started to warm up, the population would have increased again as people recolonised the more hospitable continent. They estimate it grew to between 11,300 and 72,600 people.
To carry on further, the basis of calculations need to change, because agriculture was introduced to Europe, allowing much greater food production and greater population growth.
That's how historical demography is done, by looking at the evidence of the real world. We don't need your back of an envelope calcuations based around numbers you pulled out of the air and which ignore the realities of technological and climatic limitations to growth.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by goldenlightArchangel, posted 03-05-2012 7:00 AM goldenlightArchangel has replied

Replies to this message:
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caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 179 of 194 (655296)
03-09-2012 8:25 AM
Reply to: Message 178 by Percy
03-09-2012 8:13 AM


Re: THE FINALS CAN BE CHANGED — and they still indicate global termination
You say your other source is the Institute of Historical Research. Can you provide a link to where at their site you're getting this information?
The figures from the Institute for Historical Research were the ones I quoted before. I believe I found them in a BBC feature on population change in Britain, but now I can't find the same page again. The figures for 1801 onwards are from the census.
I'm unclear from CrazyDiamond7's latest response if this means he's accepting these estimates, since the purpose of presenting them was to demonstrate that population growth doesn't proceed in any definite fashion, being limited by resources and affected by contingent events. One of the key points was supposed to be that the population didn't change a great deal for about 1,000 years, then increased about 40-fold over the next thousand years.
ABE: Some of the figures based on the "Evolution theory for the origin of the Human body" also appear to be from one of my posts, which were taking from this article abstract on an anthropology blog. It's an attempt to estimate the pre-agricultural population of Europe.
The figures have been misinterpreted though.1,700 - 37,700 people is the error margin for the population over the whole period from 50,000 years ago to the Last Glacial Maximum. It is not supposed to represent a beginning and end point.
I've no idea where the pre-50,000 BC figures are supposed to come from.
Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.

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 Message 178 by Percy, posted 03-09-2012 8:13 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
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caffeine
Member (Idle past 456 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 188 of 194 (655848)
03-14-2012 6:01 AM
Reply to: Message 187 by goldenlightArchangel
03-13-2012 5:01 PM


Re: DIAGNOSING THE PROBLEM the three intervals anomaly
If pandas were more Humans than they often are, would they have such a high society charming style of being worried with colors when the entire chronological basis of the Evolution theory [ in regards to the origin of the Human body ] is falling apart, perhaps literally sinking ?
I'm not sure how many more ways to try and explain this.
You say that, taking two points in history and looking at the population, there is always a 'multiplication rate' between the two.
If, by this, you mean that population has always increased between two points, this is clearly not true.
Sometimes, the population has decreased between two points.
Sometimes, it has remained static.
You keep demanding us to invent models of population growth. Here's an invented model which could explain the fact that the population of Britain didn't change significantly during the medieval period:
Each pair of breeding adults has, on average, six offspring.
On average, three of these die as children. Of those who survive, again on average, one doesn't have any children due to dying, or being sterlie, or horrendously unnatractive, or joining a nunnery, or whatever other reason you'd like.
This produces a population growth rate of 0. Problem solved.

This message is a reply to:
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