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Author Topic:   Inflation: The Basics
DBlevins
Member (Idle past 3807 days)
Posts: 652
From: Puyallup, WA.
Joined: 02-04-2003


Message 14 of 47 (588422)
10-25-2010 2:52 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Nij
10-25-2010 1:47 AM


Inflation and population
I wonder, is demand linked to the size of population by any "known" relationship? Obviously more people means needing more stuff, but what exactly if any is the link.
Declining populations have quite a few things to be worried about, from an economic point of view. As population rates decline, the demographic profile starts to shift toward the grayer or older part of the spectrum, which puts an added burden on the ecomony:
less input to pension and entitlement systems and more withdrawals, which will cause a shift to those still in the workforce paying higher premiums.
Increased pressures on the healthcare system.
Less creativity and adaptability within the workforce.
decline in markets leading to less investments adversely affecting economic growth.
Effectively lower savings rates.
If as crash says, inflation is necessary to keep the amount of money available fair to the number of people alive to use it (inflation required to match demand) does that mean countries/economies with decreasing populations should have a significantly lower or inverted rate of inflation to account for the lower number of people?
The above is by all means not a comprehensive list, and there can be argued that there are positive aspects to a declining population (Ex. A decrease in energy consumption) but I am not sure you could say that declining birthrates would have much impact on inflation rates.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Nij, posted 10-25-2010 1:47 AM Nij has not replied

  
DBlevins
Member (Idle past 3807 days)
Posts: 652
From: Puyallup, WA.
Joined: 02-04-2003


Message 15 of 47 (588424)
10-25-2010 3:11 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Jon
10-25-2010 9:49 AM


Re: Things Not Accounted For
When inflation occurs, deflation is the quickest fix.
Is the system inflated or deflated? If you believe it inflated, then you should adopt my solution above. If you believe it deflated, then an alternate solution is required. If you believe it inflated, but continue charging more and more for the same output each successive day, then the system will fail.
Deflation is the last resort of a severly impacted economy. Mainstream economies will first resort to disinflationary policies. I can't believe that you are advocating a total restructuring of an economies currency, a la Zimbabwe, in order to correct an inflated system.
You are totally out of your rockers here!
Don't confuse disinflation with deflation!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Jon, posted 10-25-2010 9:49 AM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by Jon, posted 10-25-2010 5:04 PM DBlevins has replied

  
DBlevins
Member (Idle past 3807 days)
Posts: 652
From: Puyallup, WA.
Joined: 02-04-2003


Message 19 of 47 (588438)
10-25-2010 5:47 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Jon
10-24-2010 2:38 PM


Re: Reply to DBlevins
I had been assuming WWII, but you replied to me by talking about the 90's, and so I thought maybe I had guessed the wrong war. Since we now understand that it was WWII you were talking about, I think a reply to my question is in order.
You misunderstand. I was talking about the top marginal tax rate that was IN the 90 percentile range during one of the most properous eras after the end of ww2. I said nothing about the 1990's in that reply.
In any case I answered your question, albeit with a question of my own.
Indeed; but to keep it from having an impact on the amount of money in circulation, we'd have to prevent every single person who receives a check from spending any of that money.
M just doesn't increase or decrease in a vacuum. Your caricature of an economy doesn't take into account rising or declining interest rates, productivity increases, debts, wage demands, and any number of significant impacts on a REAL economy. Jesus, how dense do you have to be to not get it?
This is unlikely, and so these government checks are undoubtedly going to impact the amount of money in circulation. With that cleared up, perhaps now you can answer the question: What is the impact of these government checks on the amount of money in circulation?
The inflationary pressure due to the amount of money in circulation is going to be mitigated by the fact that, you were entering a possible deflationary period, and/or the productivity gains due to increased demand and thus will lessen any inflationary pressures. You also have the role of government in controlling interest rates which can effectively add or take money out of the system. Ultimately, though an increase in the money supply can lead to inflation in the long run, it doesn't always because of the net effects of changes in supply, productivity, and government controls.
Productivity where?
In the broader economy. Where else?
If my earnings do not increase, then I have the same amount of money; unless you can keep my income rising with inflation, then the overall effect is a decrease in purchasing power. You're not accounting for the affect of the labor pool.
You are not accounting for the effect that inflation has on debts.
No; your dollars are worth less than the dollars of the person who only paid $100 for the same pencil. Value of money is determined by the amount of goods/services it can buy, using a simple equation: Goods/Money. In this case, the $100 has more value than your $135, since less money is used to buy the same good (p = pencil):
1p/$100 = 0.010p/$
1p/$135 0.007p/$
That real value of money is not the number next to the $ sign. It is not the amount of goods/services for which it 'might' be exchanged. It is the amount of goods/services for which it can be and is exchanged.
No, the value of my dollars has not changed. I just gave you more because I valued your pencil greater than Jill did. The value of that dollar is not independent of its purchasing power. Just because I want to pay $135 for your pencil doesn't mean that my dollars are automatically worth less. That would be INSANE. It would only hold true if you couldn't buy more with the money than you could have with the lesser amount.
Let's say you sell me your pencil today for $135, vice the $100 you were offered yesterday. Now you buy 45 gallons of gas for our RV instead of 33.3 gallons. Has your purchasing power increased or decreased?
You're oversimplifying the real economy. It just doesn't work the way your proposing.
You are using 'value' in two different ways here, which I think is the cause of fault in most of your argument. Can you separate them before we continue?
As a medium of exchange, money has value. That is why our system works. If money had no value, you'd be seeing more people burning it to keep warm.
I think your misapprehension is in failing to distinguish moneys inherent and its real value.
Edited by DBlevins, : erased unnecessary snark.
Edited by DBlevins, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Jon, posted 10-24-2010 2:38 PM Jon has not replied

  
DBlevins
Member (Idle past 3807 days)
Posts: 652
From: Puyallup, WA.
Joined: 02-04-2003


Message 20 of 47 (588440)
10-25-2010 5:51 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Jon
10-25-2010 5:04 PM


Re: Things Not Accounted For
Slowing down inflation will not stop it; only deflation can do that.
In normal cases we do not want to see deflation. Deflation is a bad thing overall.
Remember, the goal of an economic system is stability and growth. Inflation and deflation are breakdowns in that stability. Neither is good.
Remember: Low rates of inflation are good. High rates of inflation are bad.
Edited by DBlevins, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by Jon, posted 10-25-2010 5:04 PM Jon has not replied

  
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