The first and second possibilities are in fact the same thing. Random chance is both driven and constrained by natural laws (which I take to mean F=ma, relativity, fine structure constant, QFT, etc.)
Also note that "multiplicity of possible consequences" (which is precisely the same as "number of possible outcomes") is left undefined and will vary depending upon what it takes to achieve the pre-determined result. It's bogus.
This "Specified events of small probability do not occur by chance" is also bogus. Someone won the lotto last Wednesday against 500,000,000 to 1 odds. Events of small probability happen naturally all the time. Look in the mirror. Considering the numbers of eggs, sperm and timing, against the remote possibility that your parents even met, multiplied by those same factors for your grandparents, great grandparents and back through the hundreds (actually tens of thousands and beyond) of generations and the probability of YOU is staggeringly small and yet here you naturally be naturally achieved.
Take a million decks of shuffled cards. Randomly take one card from each deck and record its value. What are the possibilities that you will re-draw all 1 million cards in the same sequence precisely as you did the first round? Staggeringly small. And yet you managed to do it quite easily the first round. All million of them. Staggeringly small possibilities happen naturally in this universe all day long.
Your rendition of Demski's "filter" is bull.