Imagine that Von Neumann stating the problems of probability and thermondynamics , miracles, highly improbable and surely he was semantically accurate being one of the great intellects in a semantically precise world and very knowledgeable of science in general.
The question is how similar to a modern living organism, or a hypothetical Von Neumann capable system, the original self-replicator needs to be.
The probability of a replicator happening de neuvo capable of the required extant accuracy or quality in performance is greater than the 10**-150 commonly used definition of impossibility. This has been accepted by your own people and is well documented in the literature.
Why not provided some references to go with those claims. As far as I am aware this has barely any profile in the scientific literature but is rather a favourite of the ID crowd especially William Dembski who has popularised the concept.
This is all just an argument from incredulity tarted up with some numbers you made up off the top of your head.
That a problem is 'mathematically intractable' has absolutely nothing to do with its likelihood of occuring. N-body problems are mathematically intractable and yet few people resort to supernatural, or intelligent if you prefer, intercession to explain how the various bodies of the solar system interact.
TTFN,
WK