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Author Topic:   The numbers game...
ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 1 of 41 (190579)
03-08-2005 7:00 AM


In the film ‘Contact’ the character Palmer Joss says I couldn’t with good conscience vote for someone who believes the other 95% of us are deluding themselves
Do numbers of adherents for any one concept prove its truth or validity? If you have 51 one people believing concept X is true and 50 believing it’s wrong does that make X true? And if one person changes their mind so that 51 now believe X is not true does that change the truthfulness of X?
What if 100 believe X to be true and 1 that it is not, what then?
--Not sure of the best froum for this--
This message has been edited by ohnhai, 08 March 2005 12:02 AM

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AdminJar
Inactive Member


Message 2 of 41 (190699)
03-08-2005 11:08 PM


Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 3 of 41 (190701)
03-08-2005 11:13 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by ohnhai
03-08-2005 7:00 AM


Before getting too far into this are you familar with the Delphi Survey Method?

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 4 of 41 (190720)
03-09-2005 4:37 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by jar
03-08-2005 11:13 PM


nope

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TheLiteralist
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 41 (190727)
03-09-2005 6:07 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by ohnhai
03-08-2005 7:00 AM


it's obvious, right?
Ohnai,
For most things (except for concepts that indeed are a matter of consensus--definitions, for instance), I would think that it is obvious that the truth of anything is quite independent of how many believe the thing to be true.
OTOH, I think you already know this, and I wonder what inspired you to ask such a question?
This is ever the common argument in the EvC debate--and it gets used on both sides--that nearly all the world stood against Galileo and Galileo was right, therefore, just because all the evolutionists (or creationists) think X is false (or right) doesn't mean X is false (or right).
[btw, ohnhai, is your avatar a baby storm trooper--like the ones in the star wars movies? ]

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TheLiteralist
Inactive Member


Message 6 of 41 (190728)
03-09-2005 6:11 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by ohnhai
03-08-2005 7:00 AM


It's a Logical Fallacy
Actually, its a well-known logical fallacy called Appeal to Popularity
Here is a link that defines it almost as you have in your OP.

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 7 of 41 (190729)
03-09-2005 6:16 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by TheLiteralist
03-09-2005 6:07 AM


avatar....
Nope it's Marvin the paranoid android from the new film version of The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy... I thought him cute enough to be avatar worthy.

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Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 8 of 41 (190730)
03-09-2005 6:19 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by ohnhai
03-08-2005 7:00 AM


In the film ‘Contact’ the character Palmer Joss says I couldn’t with good conscience vote for someone who believes the other 95% of us are deluding themselves
I don't think this quote pertains to the same thing as the rest of your post. When you vote for someone you are choosing someone to represent you; so it's not about whether disagreeing with everyone makes them right or wrong but whether that makes them a good choice for a representative of those people.

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 9 of 41 (190731)
03-09-2005 6:28 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by TheLiteralist
03-09-2005 6:11 AM


Re: It's a Logical Fallacy
that link was down here is another one

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 10 of 41 (190733)
03-09-2005 6:39 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by TheLiteralist
03-09-2005 6:07 AM


Re: it's obvious, right?
and I wonder what inspired you to ask such a question?
The many times, not necessarily here, that I’ve had the 95-98% statistic thrown in my face by believers as a reason why they are right and those who don’t believe are wrong. The good old 95% of the world believes in God, so why don’t you?
I wanted to know who here thought this a valid argument.

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TheLiteralist
Inactive Member


Message 11 of 41 (190736)
03-09-2005 7:03 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by ohnhai
03-09-2005 6:39 AM


Shoe on the Other Foot?
Ohnhai,
The many times, not necessarily here, that I’ve had the 95-98% statistic thrown in my face by believers as a reason why they are right and those who don’t believe are wrong. The good old 95% of the world believes in God, so why don’t you?
Haw!
Well, I'm a believer (in the Biblical God), but I wouldn't try to persuade an un-believer with that line of reasoning! Sounds like an overly optimistic statistic anyways. (95%!?)
I usually get it the other way around...the scientists believe the earth is 4.5 billion years old (or believe in evolution or whatever), so why don't you? But I think I had seen it used by creationists on evolutionists, too...thus I said it was used by both sides.
It is fallacious reasoning whichever side uses it and no matter the verity of the concept being discussed and no matter the intelligence of the particular majority invoked.

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TheLiteralist
Inactive Member


Message 12 of 41 (190737)
03-09-2005 7:07 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by ohnhai
03-09-2005 6:16 AM


Re: avatar....
Well, I've never seen Marvin before...but he is "avatar worthy"...I chuckle (sometimes only mentally, tho) whenever I see him...cuz he looks like a baby storm trooper.

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TheLiteralist
Inactive Member


Message 13 of 41 (190739)
03-09-2005 7:14 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Dr Jack
03-09-2005 6:19 AM


Representatives
Mr Jack,
I didn't see the movie...so I don't know the context.
quote:
In the film ‘Contact’ the character Palmer Joss says I couldn’t with good conscience vote for someone who believes the other 95% of us are deluding themselves
I don't think this quote pertains to the same thing as the rest of your post. When you vote for someone you are choosing someone to represent you; so it's not about whether disagreeing with everyone makes them right or wrong but whether that makes them a good choice for a representative of those people.
This is curious. If 95% of the people truly were deluding themselves, the best representative would be the fellow who understood this truth. But would he get elected? I doubt it. To do so he would either have to un-delude more than 45% (if its a two-party system), that's quite a job. Or he could continue the delusion (lie through his teeth) till he got in office.
AbE: And once he got there, he would likely find himself at odds with most of the government which had probably affirmed the delusion for some nefarious reasons--i.e., he'd have an "accident," die of "natural causes," or get assisinated and the media would quickly show us the "lone fruitcake" who did it (so we'd never figure out it was the government protecting the delusion).
This message has been edited by TheLiteralist, 03-09-2005 07:16 AM
This message has been edited by TheLiteralist, 03-09-2005 07:20 AM

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 14 of 41 (190741)
03-09-2005 7:28 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by TheLiteralist
03-09-2005 7:03 AM


Re: Shoe on the Other Foot?
(95%!?)
Yup. I know. There ARE people who hear 95% believe in a god [closer to 86% these days I think] and use it to mean their God and not belief in god/gods of any description

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ohnhai
Member (Idle past 5163 days)
Posts: 649
From: Melbourne, Australia
Joined: 11-17-2004


Message 15 of 41 (190744)
03-09-2005 7:58 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by TheLiteralist
03-09-2005 7:14 AM


Re: Representatives
In the movie the voting is to choose the one representative of earth to ride in this machine that earth is building from a set of plans ‘faxed’ down to us from some unknown aliens. The machine only contains the space for one occupant (thought the book had five representatives make the trip). Palmer Joss is an adviser to the Whitehouse on religious matters and also on the panel choosing the candidates. He scuppers the main characters chances of going because she is an atheist (later turns out this was just the excuse ‘cause he loves her and didn’t want to run the risk of losing her)
I used it as an example of someone justifying a position/decision based on a greater number of adherents to proposition X that they also happen to hold.

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