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Author Topic:   Election 08 (Make your prediction)
onifre
Member (Idle past 2951 days)
Posts: 4854
From: Dark Side of the Moon
Joined: 02-20-2008


Message 46 of 129 (487527)
11-01-2008 9:11 AM
Reply to: Message 43 by Buzsaw
11-01-2008 9:01 AM


Re: My Original Prediction 10/10/07
My point was that back then Obama's chances were considered slim by the pundits.
First, pundits are about as in the dark as we are. They're given a piece of paper with what to say every time they're on tv.
My assessment back then was based on the fact that a large sector of Americans, especially among are beginning to think like Germans thought during the pre-Hitler decades.
How do you know what Germans thought? This is typical right-wing bullshit. Talk about ripe for the picking, every time Jerry Falwell open his mouth the religous nut jobs follow every word like it's Gods word. Apparently Fox News has the same effect on you guys. Lol

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Buzsaw, posted 11-01-2008 9:01 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4032
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 9.2


Message 47 of 129 (487535)
11-01-2008 1:43 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by Buzsaw
11-01-2008 9:06 AM


Re: Ask The Self-Proclaimed Prophet
From organizations like Acorn and Obama's army of community organizers which he had handily organized in place in preparation for his campaign.
You're an utter imbecile, as is anyone else screaming about ACORN. ACORN is required by law to submit any any all voter registration cards, even if they have reason to beleive they are fraudulent. They simply flag the ones they believe are invalid before sending them in. Most of the registration forms McCain is whining about were pointed out in writing as likely fraudulent by ACORN themselves! And no matter how many people fill out "Micky Mouse" on a voter registration form, they still have to show up on voting day with a valid ID. That means "Micky" had better be his legal name.
There is no fraud going on from ACORN, at least not on an organizational level (individuals can by and are, as always, lazy amoral idiots), and you'd need to provide evidence of actual votes being cast fraudulently, not simply false voter registration.
Of course the irony of a Republican complaining about "stolen electoral votes" is rich. Does it hurt to be that utterly stupid and ignorant, Buz, or does it just come naturally to you to believe whatever Faux News tells you without ever finding out what voter registration organizations are required by law to do when they're handed a likely fraudulent registration form?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by Buzsaw, posted 11-01-2008 9:06 AM Buzsaw has replied

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Buzsaw
Inactive Member


Message 48 of 129 (487538)
11-01-2008 5:55 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Rahvin
11-01-2008 1:43 PM


Re: Ask The Self-Proclaimed Prophet
Rahvin writes:
You're an utter imbecile, as is anyone else screaming about ACORN. ACORN is required by law to submit any any all voter registration cards, even if they have reason to believe they are fraudulent. They simply flag the ones they believe are invalid before sending them in. Most of the registration forms McCain is whining about were pointed out in writing as likely fraudulent by ACORN themselves! And no matter how many people fill out "Micky Mouse" on a voter registration form, they still have to show up on voting day with a valid ID. That means "Micky" had better be his legal name.
There is no fraud going on from ACORN, at least not on an organizational level (individuals can by and are, as always, lazy amoral idiots), and you'd need to provide evidence of actual votes being cast fraudulently, not simply false voter registration.
Of course the irony of a Republican complaining about "stolen electoral votes" is rich. Does it hurt to be that utterly stupid and ignorant, Buz, or does it just come naturally to you to believe whatever Faux News tells you without ever finding out what voter registration organizations are required by law to do when they're handed a likely fraudulent registration form?
Rahvin, I've emboldened segments of your message which you shouldn't be proud of and emboldened segments of a reliable national business weekly editorial which supports my integrity and understanding relative to my position. That we do not agree is by no means indicative that either of us is an imbecile. Why is it that whenever we disagree that you think you need to go on a personal attack?
Investors Business Daily writes:
It's a legitimate question to raise now that the FBI has raided the offices of the nonprofit Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now in Nevada and North Carolina, two states where Obama and John McCain are running neck-and-neck. ACORN has registered bogus voters in both states.
The group's voter-registration fraud is rampant, and authorities plan a nationwide sweep of ACORN offices to collect records.
In Nevada, state officials say the fraudulent registrations included forms for the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys football team, including quarterback Tony Romo.
"Romo is not registered to vote in the state of Nevada," Secretary of State Ross Miller said, "and anybody trying to pose as Terrell Owens won't be able to cast a ballot on Nov. 4."
While those names will be flagged on Election Day, felonious voters may have better luck using other cutouts. Nevada, along with several other key battleground states, requires no ID to vote.
In North Carolina, where Obama has been running nonstop ads, ACORN has registered a record number of new voters, many of them suspicious. Statewide, Democrats are doing better than the GOP in new converts ” even in traditionally Republican counties.
There have been 218,749 newly registered Democrats in North Carolina since January ” more than five times the 38,337 new Republicans, state records show.
The numbers show a startlingly close political battle even in Republican-dominated Union County, with 4,233 new voters registering as Democrats and 4,362 as Republicans. In previous election years, new Republicans have outnumbered Democrats 2-to-1 in the fast-growing Charlotte-area county.
In Missouri, one ACORN registrant named Monica Rays showed up on no less than eight forms, all bearing the same signature.
Suspicious election officials sent letters to some 5,000 ACORN registrants in St. Louis, asking the letter recipients to contact them.
Fewer than 40 responded.
In Kansas City, 15,000 registrations have been questioned, and last year four ACORN employees were indicted for fraud.
In addition, ACORN officials have also been indicted in Wisconsin and Colorado. Investigations against others are active in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
ACORN has also been registering convicted felons ” including inmates ” in Florida and other battleground states. ACORN boasts registering a record 1.5 million new voters so far this election.
What does all this have to do with Obama, besides the fact that he'd be the beneficiary of most, if not all, of these new votes?
For starters, Obama paid ACORN, which has endorsed him for president, $800,000 to register new voters, payments his campaign failed to accurately report. (They were disguised in his FEC disclosure as payments to a front group called Citizen Services Inc. for "advance work.")
What's more, Obama worked as executive director of ACORN's voter-registration arm, Project Vote, in 1992. Joined by two other community organizers on Chicago's South Side, Obama conducted the voter-registration drive that helped elect Carol Moseley-Braun to the Senate that year.
The next year, 1993, Obama joined the civil-rights law firm Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland, where he sued the state of Illinois on behalf of ACORN to implement the federal "Motor Voter" law, which the GOP governor at the time refused to do. Then-Gov. Jim Edgar argued, presciently, that the Clinton law would invite voter fraud.
Obama downplays his ties to ACORN, and his campaign denies coordinating with ACORN to register voters.
Meantime, New Orleans-based ACORN maintains that it has no control over volunteers who are falsifying application forms, that they're like employees who steal from the store.
But the fraud is widespread and not isolated. It also turns out that some ACORN execs allegedly are involved in a $1 million embezzlement cover-up at their headquarters. Representing them in the case is none other than Michelle Obama's old law firm in Chicago.
ACORN's corruption is not just out in the field, as they claim. There's a pattern of corruption from the top down.
McCain would be wise to start preparing a challenge to voter registration rolls should he lose the race in a close contest. He'd be crazy not to contest the results in light of these events.

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 49 of 129 (487542)
11-01-2008 7:54 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by Buzsaw
11-01-2008 9:06 AM


Buzsaw writes:
quote:
From organizations like Acorn
What, precisely, is ACORN up to?
It sounds like you don't really know the processes ACORN uses and the legal framework that exists regarding organizations that seek to register people to vote.
  1. ACORN does pay its workers, but it pays an hourly wage, not by the number of forms signed. This is to help prevent fraud. Since a worker will not be paid by the number of forms, there is no incentive to turn in falsified documents.
  2. Of the forms turned in, ACORN contacts the person listed on the form three times to validate the information on the form. This is to prevent fraud. A fake form will most likely have illegitimate information.
  3. By law in most jurisdictions, all forms collected by registration agencies such as ACORN must be turned in. This is to prevent fraud. If a group with malicious tendencies collects forms but wishes to suppress the vote by not turning in the forms of those whom it deems unworthy, that is disenfranchisement. Even in jurisdictions where this is not required (and they are very few), ACORN turns in all forms in order to prevent disenfranchisement.
  4. ACORN examines the forms that are turned in to look for other signs of fraud such as multiple forms being written in the same handwriting. This is to prevent fraud.
  5. Because ACORN turns over all registration forms (as is usually required by law), ACORN flags every suspicious form it finds when turning them over. This is to prevent fraud. By informing the registrar of suspicious forms, they can be more easily scrutinized and deleted by election officials.
  6. Should there be a finding that the forms turned in by specific workers are fraudulent, that worker is fired from ACORN. ACORN then works with the election officials to prosecute the person who submitted fraudulent documents. In every single instance of an ACORN worker being prosecuted for submitting false voter registration documents, said worker was turned in by ACORN.
Could you please outline how this process is flawed? I should point out that in the past 3 years, there have been only 70 cases of fraud connected to an election found in the entire country. Of those 70, only 18 were involving a voter and of those 18, not a single one involved a false registration form.
So please tell us, Buzsaw, exactly where is your evidence that ACORN is a source of trouble regarding elections? This is nothing more than the latest example of fake outrage over non-existent problems.
quote:
Obama's army of community organizers which he had handily organized in place in preparation for his campaign.
And is there a reason for your sneering over the phrase "community organizers"? Given that you were apparently quite ignorant regarding the reality of ACORN, exactly what is your problem with people getting involved in their community with regard to government? Are you upset that these groups are doing out in the open what churches try to do in private?
I trust you are just as upset over the actions of church groups to provide rides to their congregation to the polling place, right? Such "community organizers" are necessarily corrupt, right?

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by Buzsaw, posted 11-01-2008 9:06 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 50 of 129 (487543)
11-01-2008 8:04 PM
Reply to: Message 43 by Buzsaw
11-01-2008 9:01 AM


Buzsaw writes:
quote:
My assessment back then was based on the fact that a large sector of Americans, especially among are beginning to think like Germans thought during the pre-Hitler decades.
BZZZZT!
Godwin's Law. I'm so sorry, Buzsaw. Thanks for playing.
First person to mention the Nazis automatically loses the debate. To think that the best example to compare your argument to is the Holocaust is to prove that you understand neither the Holocaust nor your own argument.
quote:
They are ripe for the picking by the likes of Obama.
Right...and the McCain's campaign of declaring Obama to be tantamount to a terrorist has nothing to do with invoking fear.

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Buzsaw, posted 11-01-2008 9:01 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Monk
Member (Idle past 3924 days)
Posts: 782
From: Kansas, USA
Joined: 02-25-2005


Message 51 of 129 (487544)
11-01-2008 8:05 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by fallacycop
10-30-2008 6:59 PM


The Backlash Cometh
Obama 290
McCain 248
Closer than expected given media bias, poor economy, Bush, difficulty of three term-same party, Obama $$$, and the pathetic campaign run by McCain. The Socialism angle would have worked for McCain but was too little, too late.
Prediction:
In late 2009-10, the economy gets really bad. Pelosi, Obama, Reid trifecta continue to push liberal agenda regardless of economic conditions. Carter style foreign policy appeasement does not work. Media turns on Obama.
All of this leads to a mid-term backlash reminiscent of 1994.
Republicans take control of congress in 2010

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by fallacycop, posted 10-30-2008 6:59 PM fallacycop has replied

Replies to this message:
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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 52 of 129 (487547)
11-01-2008 8:32 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by Buzsaw
11-01-2008 5:55 PM


Buzsaw quotes the Investor's Business Daily:
quote:
ACORN has registered bogus voters in both states.
Incorrect. ACORN turned over registration forms that had bogus information on them. They are required to do so by law. And they flag every single form that appears to be fraudulent in order to assist election officials weed them out.
In short, IBD lied to you.
quote:
In Missouri, one ACORN registrant named Monica Rays showed up on no less than eight forms, all bearing the same signature.
And they were all flagged by ACORN as suspicious. Since ACORN is required by law to turn in every single form they get in order to prevent disenfranchisement, they look through them for suspicious forms such as duplicate entries in the same handwriting and flag them so that election officials can more easily determine where the problems are.
They then volunteer to turn over information to election officials in order to help prosecute those who turned in fraudulent forms. Every single ACORN worker that has ever been prosecuted for filing false election documents has been turned over by ACORN.
Is there a reason why IBD didn't mention this fact?
quote:
Suspicious election officials sent letters to some 5,000 ACORN registrants in St. Louis, asking the letter recipients to contact them.
Fewer than 40 responded.
And this is a problem why? Again, ACORN contacts the people they sign up before they turn the forms over in order to prevent fraud. Those who don't respond are flagged before they are turned over as required by law. If the person has already been contacted by ACORN, they may think they have already done what needs to be done to verify their registration.
But on a more basic level, since when was it a requirement to respond to government letter in order to be registered to vote? This is a fake claim.
quote:
In Kansas City, 15,000 registrations have been questioned, and last year four ACORN employees were indicted for fraud.
In addition, ACORN officials have also been indicted in Wisconsin and Colorado. Investigations against others are active in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
And every single one of them was turned in by ACORN.
Every single one.
Is there a reason why IBD didn't mention this fact?
quote:
ACORN has also been registering convicted felons ” including inmates ” in Florida and other battleground states.
And all of them were flagged before being turned over so that the election officials knew which ones were the problem. Since ACORN is required by law to turn in every single form it receives, it is not in any position to throw out forms it knows are bad. So, it flags them as suspicious and then assists election officials in prosecuting those who turned them in.
Every single ACORN worker that has ever been prosecuted for fraud was turned in by ACORN.
quote:
For starters, Obama paid ACORN, which has endorsed him for president, $800,000 to register new voters, payments his campaign failed to accurately report. (They were disguised in his FEC disclosure as payments to a front group called Citizen Services Inc. for "advance work.")
Incomplete:
Even before Friday’s conference call, Republicans had made much of an $832,598 payment made in February by the Obama campaign to Citizens Services Inc., a consulting firm affiliated with Acorn.
“This organization is not just related to but deeply ingrained in the Acorn organization, a front group for Acorn,” Mr. Davis said.
The Obama campaign initially reported that the payment was for “staging, sound, lighting” and other advance work when it reported its expenditures with the Federal Election Commission. It filed amended reports in August and September to reflect that those payments were for get-out-the-vote efforts.
Mr. Davis contended that the original filing was an effort to “hide the fact” that money was paid to Acorn. But F.E.C. officials have said such amended filings are common.
Citizens Services typically contracts with Acorn and its affiliates for work like that done for the Obama campaign. Mr. Goldberg, the Acorn spokesman, said that less than $80,000 of the Obama campaign’s payment to Citizens Services went to Acorn. Jeff Robinson, executive vice president of Citizens Services, did not return a call inquiring how the rest of the money was spent.
-- On Obama, Acorn and Voter Registration, Stephanie Strom, New York Times, October 10, 2008
Is there a reason that IBD decided not to report on the fact that the Obama campaign amended the filing and that such amendments are hardly uncommon?
quote:
But the fraud is widespread and not isolated. It also turns out that some ACORN execs allegedly are involved in a $1 million embezzlement cover-up at their headquarters. Representing them in the case is none other than Michelle Obama's old law firm in Chicago.
Again, incomplete:
The lawsuit accuses ACORN founder and former chief organizer Wade Rathke of either concealing or failing to properly report that his brother Dale misappropriated $948,000 from New Orleans-based ACORN and affiliated charitable organizations in 1999 and 2000.
In the suit, board members Karen Inman and Marcel Reid claimed a small group of ACORN executives allowed the Rathke family to repay the embezzled money instead of reporting the allegations to law-enforcement authorities.
-- ACORN board: No lawsuit over embezzlement claim, Michael Kunzelman, Associated Press, October 22, 2008
Why does the IBD refuse to provide the complete details?
And by the way, the suit was dropped:
The board of a national activist group embroiled in controversy over its voter registration practices has decided to withdraw an unrelated lawsuit over claims that the founder's brother embezzled nearly $1 million, a spokesman said Monday.
Two of 51 board members of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now sued for access to the group's financial records. But the full ACORN board voted to withdraw the lawsuit during a weekend meeting in New Orleans, ACORN spokesman Charles Jackson said.
-- ACORN board: No lawsuit over embezzlement claim, Michael Kunzelman, Associated Press, October 22, 2008
Is there a reason why you didn't mention this fact?
You have been lied to, Buzsaw. What are you going to do now that you know this?

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Buzsaw, posted 11-01-2008 5:55 PM Buzsaw has not replied

  
fallacycop
Member (Idle past 5520 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 53 of 129 (487556)
11-01-2008 9:50 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by Monk
11-01-2008 8:05 PM


Re: The Backlash Cometh
Closer than expected given media bias,
What media bias?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Monk, posted 11-01-2008 8:05 PM Monk has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by Monk, posted 11-02-2008 9:07 AM fallacycop has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18262
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 54 of 129 (487565)
11-02-2008 3:38 AM


My Theory
Here is how I will vote. Both New York and California will go to Obama. The rest of the electoral votes will split just about down the middle.
Now what does that add up to?

Replies to this message:
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fallacycop
Member (Idle past 5520 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 55 of 129 (487571)
11-02-2008 8:15 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by Phat
11-02-2008 3:38 AM


Re: My Theory
I'll chalk you down for
Obama :312
McCain :226

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 Message 54 by Phat, posted 11-02-2008 3:38 AM Phat has not replied

  
Monk
Member (Idle past 3924 days)
Posts: 782
From: Kansas, USA
Joined: 02-25-2005


Message 56 of 129 (487576)
11-02-2008 9:07 AM
Reply to: Message 53 by fallacycop
11-01-2008 9:50 PM


Re: The Backlash Cometh
C'mon...you know...unless you're an Obot.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by fallacycop, posted 11-01-2008 9:50 PM fallacycop has replied

Replies to this message:
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AnswersInGenitals
Member (Idle past 151 days)
Posts: 673
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 57 of 129 (487582)
11-02-2008 10:41 AM


Was McCain stabbed in the back?
I think it is appropriate to interject an additional question. Assuming Obama wins (and if he wins big, i. e., with a large enough popular vote to be considered to have a mandate), I believe there will be a lot of post election discussion of why the McCain/Palin campaign was such a mess, often bordering on ineptitude. The republicans are almost always able to draw much more money than the democrats, including massive infusions from corporate PACs. What happened this time? The republicans have always had strong and effective national and local campaign organizations that won them five of the last seven presidential elections and the majority of the congressional and gubernatorial elections. What happened this time? Did the GOP just sit back on its laurels and get complacent?
I believe that to a large extent McCain was stabbed in the back by his own party. The republican 'king makers' don't want a maverick. They don't want a "new blood" Washington outsider for vice president. And they particularly don't want a president who isn't a dogmatic Reaganite. So McCain was pretty much left to twist in the wind. His campaign was ill advised. Tactics were tried helter-skelter and quickly abandoned, making McCain look desperate, as though he himself thought that he was a loser. Of course, having a sitting president that is deservedly so unpopular that he dared not campaign for McCain was no help. But, if McCain loses, I think he will have lost because the GOP party insiders had no interest in his winning.
Any thoughts?

Replies to this message:
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Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 58 of 129 (487591)
11-02-2008 11:32 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by AnswersInGenitals
11-02-2008 10:41 AM


Re: Was McCain stabbed in the back?
The republican 'king makers' don't want a maverick. They don't want a "new blood" Washington outsider for vice president.
Except that they didn't get a maverick, and they got a typical Republican Washington insider. McCain's status as a "maverick" is a myth perpetuated by the media. The only difference between McCain and the rest of the contemporary Republican Party is that McCain hasn't had a tradition of pandering to the Religious Right, which, too, has now changed, as his choice of Palin as running mate shows.
The problem is that the "moderates" in the Republican Party (that is, the traditional conservatives) have been marginalized, and leaving the extreme right in control. But their policies have been abject failures, and they neither know how to handle this, nor have they really come to admit that large numbers of former supporters don't have patience with their monkey-boy antics any more.
A lot of big name conservatives and neo-cons have now come out in support of Obama. Most seem to use Palin as an excuse, but Fukuyama, for example, has admitted that by and large the Republican Party's policies have failed and failure shouldn't be rewarded by being given another term in office.

Speaking personally, I find few things more awesome than contemplating this vast and majestic process of evolution, the ebb and flow of successive biotas through geological time. Creationists and others who cannot for ideological or religious reasons accept the fact of evolution miss out a great deal, and are left with a claustrophobic little universe in which nothing happens and nothing changes.
-- M. Alan Kazlev

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Taz
Member (Idle past 3292 days)
Posts: 5069
From: Zerus
Joined: 07-18-2006


Message 59 of 129 (487597)
11-02-2008 12:02 PM


I know I said before that I'm not going to vote this election. I still stand by this. I really am not going to vote because I don't like either candidate. However, I do hope McCain wins. This gives Clinton another shot in 4 years. Let's face it. McCain is a 1 term president no matter what.

Replies to this message:
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Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 60 of 129 (487611)
11-02-2008 5:58 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by fallacycop
10-30-2008 6:59 PM


Obama: 344
Mccain: 194
Yeah, I'm shooting high.

This message is a reply to:
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