To our members in the Caribbean hunker down; if in Florida head north..

Stay safe. Ride out, don't ride one out.

I'm in Orlando and the latest track seems to be up the East coast of Florida. If it sticks to that track I may only have tropical storm force winds. When it was coming right up the center, heading North seemed to be the prudent thing to do!Jar, if I remember correctly, you live near Brownsville Texas. Did you get much impact from Harvey ?Edited by kjsimons, : No reason given.

quote:

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With a tightly defined eye, high maximum winds and gusts of up to 195 knots or 225 mph Irma has left weather forecasters flabbergasted.

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"I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery," NHC scientist Taylor Trogdon said Tuesday night, reacting to images of the storm's tight and powerful spiral.

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Jose is next, although preliminary forecasts have that tropical storm spinning out to sea.

I was fine through Harvey but my niece and many friends had a rougher time. Fortunately all family and friends though are okay.

On pictures such as this, can anyone clarify for me what the blue outline area is supposed to mean?My first guess:
1 - This is the average-range for possible course trajectories of the centre of the hurricane.
That is, in this provided picture, projections are unsure if it will go up the west side or east side of Florida or anywhere in between.
Although the black line provided is the "most likely" with the information provided by this picture.My second guess:
2 - The path of the hurricane within the blue area is more-or-less known (the black line), and the blue area is a "range of affected places" and possibly even showing the hurricane's projected growth along it's projected path?Just wondering.Edited by Stile, : Just adding more thoughts.

It depends on how far out. If looking a day or so then it is a close approximation of the track. Beyond about a day it is a cone of possible center tracks, the center of the storm could be anywhere within the cone.

I live just northeast of Orlando. Keeping an eye on the track now. As it stands, it looks like hunkering down is the option at this time if it skirts up the coastline. I'll definitely feel it, but the eye will be east of me.The scary thing I see now is the potential impact to Miami and Key Largo if the track holds.

And Georgia and South Carolina.

That's a very almighty storm. Hope it misses you!

It's likely Irma will stay away from me and it looks like Katia will be well south of me too.

Good. I can't even try to imagine evc without jar.

Irma is compiling records for hurricanes.

quote:

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Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through
September 6 at 11pm EDT)

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Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date

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Intensity Measures
- 185 mph lifetime max winds — tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. (Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980)

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- 185 mph lifetime max winds — making it the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands, defined as 15-19N, 65-60W for this calculation.
Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were previous strongest at 160
mph

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- 185 mph lifetime max winds — the strongest storm to exist outside of the
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record

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- 185 mph max winds for 33 hours — the longest any cyclone around the globe has
maintained that intensity on record. The previous record was Haiyan in the NW
Pacific at 24 hours

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- 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure — lowest since Dean (2007) and 10th
lowest in satellite era (since 1966)
- 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure — lowest pressure by an Atlantic
hurricane outside of the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record

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- First Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Matthew (2016) and first
Category 5 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20N, 60-20W) since Hugo
(1989)
- 1.75 days as a Category 5 hurricane — tied with David (1979), Mitch (1998) and
Isabel (2003) for 4th most Category 5 hurricane days on record

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Integrated Measures

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- Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy by a tropical cyclone on
record in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20N, 60-20W)

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That would be ajar?

If you leave EvC ajar, the inmates might escape.

There is a pretty cool website that shows the current and future winds and other weather events. It's using the European model (the most accurate it appears).
Windy