|
Register | Sign In |
|
QuickSearch
Thread ▼ Details |
Member (Idle past 1659 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
|
Thread Info
|
|
|
Author | Topic: Dendrochronology Fact and Creationist Fraud | |||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1659 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Dendrochronology is the study of time and climate through the evidence of tree-rings and related data. There are several thousand dendrochronologies currently being used and expanded in the world, some of these are "floating" chronologies (where the end dates are not know) and some are absolute. At first blush one would not think that young earth creationists (YEC) would have a problem with something that doesn't measure ages in the billions of years.
However the YEC problem is that the chronological age of several tree-ring dendrochronologies are older than their model for the age of the earth. Two continuous absolute dendrochronologies make the concept of a world wide flood invalid for any time in the last 8,000 years. Creationists often refer to what I call "creatortionista" sites without realizing that what they are using is invalid. I define "creatortionista" as people and sites are that intentionally misrepresent the truth to delude a gullible public. Let's look at an example of what I mean. Don Batten wrote "Tree ring dating (dendrochronology)" attempting to discredit the whole field of dendrochronology in order to maintain a delusion in a young earth, and in that article he says: http://www.creationontheweb.com/content/view/2441 (9)
quote: Nothing like being up-front with your presuppositions and pre-denial of evidence. Rule out any conclusion that could invalidate your concept before you actually look at the data? He is talking here about the "Methuselah" tree[2], with an estimated germination date of 2,832 years BCE, while ignoring the slightly older "Prometheus" tree that was cut down in 1964. "Prometheus," also known as specimen WPM-114, was 4,844 years old at the time of cutting for an estimated germination date of 2,880 BCE)[8]; this not only duplicates the age shown by the "Methuselah" tree, but extends it a bit further. Nor does he address the issue of all the other trees used to build the Bristlecone Pine chronology, ones from other areas, that confirm the information from these two trees: dendrochronologies are built from many overlapping specimens, not from single trees. Notice two things: first is the intentional mis-direction to a completely different species that grows in a different environment (with the implication that they are the same - the hallmark of a scam and a con), and second is that he knows that there were "up to five rings per year" (emphasis mine) of false rings produced in the specimens he sampled. We'll look at both these issues in greater detail: Misdirection and Misinformation The intentional mis-direction is to a completely different species - in a different subgenus and that grows in a different environment - with the stated implication that they are the same. This is the hallmark of a scam, a con and a fraud. The genus Pinus - which includes all pine trees - includes some 115 different species in three subgenus divisions: Strobus (white or soft pines), Ducampopinus (pinyon, lacebark and bristlecone pines) and Pinus (yellow or hard pines)[6]. The Monterey Pine is in the subgenus Pinus[4], while the Bristlecone Pines are in the subgenus Ducampopinus. Now let's look into his claim of using a "similar" species. First the Monterey Pine: http://www.fs.fed.us/...ase/feis/plants/tree/pinrad/all.html (10)
quote: See an image of the Monterey Pine, Pinus radiata (3).
quote: The Bristlecone Pine chronology does not rely on just one species, but uses two closely related species for a cross-reference: Bristlecone Growth (14)
quote: Description of the Rocky Mountain Bristlecone Pine: http://www.fs.fed.us/...ase/feis/plants/tree/pinari/all.html (11)
quote: See an image of the Rocky Mountain Bristlecone pine, Pinus aristata (1).
quote: Description of the Great Basin Bristlecone Pine: http://www.fs.fed.us/...ase/feis/plants/tree/pinlon/all.html (12)
quote: See an image of the Great Basin Bristlecone pine, Pinus longaeva (14). The two Bristlecone Pine species have been separated for thousands of years, the Monterey Pine has been separated for much longer, especially considering the differences between the needles. What is certain is that he is comparing a very distantly related, coastal species with two high altitude species and saying they are the same - species that grows in an entirely {different habitat\ecology}. Perhaps he intentionally chose a species cultivated for rapid growth (for the timber industry), living in an entirely different seasonal growth environment where he can intentionally take samples from trees that are known to frequently have false rings. Certainly Dr. Batten is not telling the truth when he says these species are comparable in the way they grow. Dr. Batten is also not telling the full truth when he mentions the microscope, as that is not the only tool used, either by himself to identify the false rings, or by dendrochronologists that do honest work. He knows his maximum error found occurred in a single year, not just an average error based on the total life of the tree - which is the only information he would have if he were totally unable to distinguish false rings from real ones. False Ring Identification That Dr. Batten knows that there were "up to five rings per year" (emphasis mine) of false rings produced in the specimens he sampled shows that he could indeed find, measure, locate, distinguish and identify them in spite of any claims to the contrary. The only way anyone can count the number of false rings that occurred in one year is to have been able to distinguish the false rings from real ones. He does this in the same way that dendrochronologists employ to identify false rings in order to account for them in the data and make the necessary corrections. Nor does he tell you how many times false rings were found during normal growth, what the distribution of error was, or what the average error was, he just reports the maximum rate he was able to find with the implication that amount this is common in all trees all the time. Is this a 1% error or a 10% error in the life of the tree? Dr. Batten is mum on that issue. Nobody has claimed that there are trees that produce no false rings, or no missing rings either - another common problem that makes the trees appear younger than they really are (and which Dr. Batten in all his "honesty" fails to mention). The difference is that dendrochronologists know how to find the evidence of false rings - as does Dr. Batten when he notes "up to five rings per year" of false rings - but they use this information to correct the chronology. Both the species of Bristlecone Pine would not have the same numbers of false rings and missing rings, as they grow in different locations and environments, and yet the chronology that is built from their evidence is consistent from one to the other. Consistent because false rings and missing rings have been accounted for by the honest scientists. So how do the scientists deal with these problems? Here is information from an on-line slide show on dendrochronology - pay particular attention to slide 6 on false rings and how they are distinguished from true annual rings, slide 7 on partial or locally absent rings, slide 8 on sampling techniques, slide 16 on bristlecone pine, and slide 17 on correlation of rings to days of precipitation: Paleoclimatology | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (5) Pay particular attention to slide 6 on false rings and how they are distinguished from true annual rings, slide 7 on partial or locally absent rings, slide 8 on sampling techniques, slide 16 on bristlecone pine, and slide 17 on correlation of rings to days of precipitation.
quote: Ponderosa Pines, for the record, are in the same subgenus - Pinus - as the Moneterey Pine(7). Of particular note is the cause of false rings with specific reference to the type of environmental conditions that would prevail in certain locations with the Monterey Pine, Pinus radiata, used by Dr. Batten. By contrast the conditions that prevail for the Bristlecone pine, Pinus longaeva, are more likely to produce missing or micro rings, a condition that would make the trees appear younger than they really are. This "issue" of false rings and missing rings also would mean that there should be noticeable differences between the two different Bristlecone Pines, the European Oaks and the German Pines, for there is no reason for these trees to have same pattern of climate with age if the cause of the patterns seen is false and missing rings. What is not mentioned by Dr. Batten in his listing of problems with accuracy is the degree of accuracy that the scientists are looking for and the amount of error that was involved. The implication is that they are big problems and big errors. The European Oak Dendrochronology and IntCal04 The field of dendrochronology does not rest on one species, as there are many dendrochronologies. Nor is the Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology the longest absolute chronology. Thus we can check the validity of the Bristlecone Pine chronology by comparing it - and the climate information - to the longer chronology of the European Oak: Useful Tree Species for Tree-Ring Dating (13)
quote: Notice that the European Oak also arrives at the same dates for the same climates based on the ring data, a deciduous species as opposed to an evergreen species, one where the issue of false rings is much smaller due to the difference in growth patterns of these types of trees but that there is also a source of error that is not present in pine trees. These trees are so different from Bristlecone Pines - much greater than the difference between the Bristlecone Pine and the Monterey Pine - that the pattern of false rings, missing rings and other sources of error should produce an entirely different annual pattern of climate if the problem of false rings, missing rings was anywere near as significant as Dr. Batten claims. That this is not the case invalidates his claim. The issue of accuracy of the dendrochronologies is discussed in the paper on the latest calibration curve for carbon-14 levels: Not Found (15)
quote: Notice three things: first that the German chronology was originally excluded from IntCal98 because the error from the other data was 41 years ... in a span of 9,147 years, or an error of ~0.4%, second that it is now included due to resolution of errors due to bugs, and third that the Bristlecone Pines are now excluded from the calibration data due to an error of 37 years .... in a span of 7,600 years, or an error of ~0.5%. This is the sum total amount of error that Dr. Batten implies "cast doubt" on the "clear-cut, objective dating method despite the extravagant claims of some of its advocates." The problem for Dr. Batten and the YEC crowd is that these errors can be added together and multiplied by a factor of 10 and there still would have been no world wide flood (that would have killed all trees and broken the chronology) for 12,410 - 9% = 11,293 years. As the Bristlecone Pines were included before the 41 year shift, this indicates that these errors do not add, but rather they represent the same error, ~0.5%, and the minimum age of continual tree growth is 12,410 - 0.5% = 12,348 years, older than all YEC models for the age of the earth. False rings, missing rings and other sources of error are relatively rare and random in the growth patterns of trees, even though some species have higher susceptibility than others. Dendrochronologists use the tree species with the fewest known sources of errors, and they work to eliminate all sources of errors. They cross-check the data with other species and other locations. If dendrochronology depended on one lone species, Dr. Batten might have an argument: it doesn't.That all the different dendrochronologies correlate with each other also refutes Dr. Batten's implication of this being a problem that science somehow has not dealt with already. If Dr. Batten really is a scientist in this field ("As a tree physiologist"), then he is aware of - and used - the techniques used by scientists for identifying false rings. That he doesn't say anything about this speaks to his "honesty" again - his willingness to misrepresent the truth is evident. It is curious that Dr. Batten wants to be seen as a scientist on this topic, but he doesn't include any information on his methodology or his results in the paper discussed. What is he hiding other than the truth? Conclusions Multiple sources of data and multiple different chronologies confirm the dates and seasonal patterns that are observed in these chronologies. The dendrochronologies extend to an age of 12,410 with an accuracy of +/-0.5% years BP. A minimum chronological age of 12,348 years invalidates the YEC models for the age of the earth. The issue of false rings does not invalidate the existing dendrochronologies, as false rings - and other problems - can, and have been, identified by the scientists. They have been accounted for by cross-reference and by duplication of climate and chronological results in different species. Even Dr. Batten was able to distinguish false rings in his samples and thus would be able to account for them in constructing a chronology from his choice of species if he were so inclined. Dr. Batten is a fraud, a scam and a con, pretending to tell the truth to gullible people who want to believe a delusion, when in fact he is hiding the truth, misdirecting the issues and misrepresenting evidence. Enjoy. References
Where possible, I have tried to follow the standard academic procedure for citing online publications, where if you last accessed this page on January 30, 2007, and used version 1, you would cite this as: Smith, Paul "Dendrochronolgy Fact and Creationist Fraud" EvC Forum. Ver 1 updated 27 Jan 2007 accessed 30 Jan 2007 http://EvC Forum: Dendrochronology Fact and Creationist Fraud -->EvC Forum: Dendrochronology Fact and Creationist Fraud Here is a link to formal MLA style referencing. Edited by RAZD, : Ending not done when posted before, Subtitle Edited by RAZD, : see http://razd.evcforum.net/dendrochronology.html for updates Edited by RAZD, : updated Edited by RAZD, : last url Edited by RAZD, : Correcting P&M tree ages compare Fiocruz Genome and fight Muscular Dystrophy with Team EvC! (click) we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Adminnemooseus Inactive Administrator |
this something you intended for your mega-topic? Come to think of it, haven't I already seen a fair chunk of this in that topic?
It would seem to belong there, and not as an independent topic. Adminnemooseus Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Added a bit. New Members should start HERE to get an understanding of what makes great posts.
Comments on moderation procedures (or wish to respond to admin messages)? - Go to:
General discussion of moderation procedures Thread Reopen Requests Considerations of topic promotions from the "Proposed New Topics" forum Other useful links:
Forum Guidelines, [thread=-19,-112], [thread=-17,-45], [thread=-19,-337], [thread=-14,-1073]
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1659 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
It is too long to include in the "mega" post and likely to cause off-topic issues. I want to refer to the full issue here, then reference it from the mega-topic so that
(1) mega topic more about just correlations(2) discussions of the fraud issue can be addressed here This would also mean much shorter Message 5 on mega-topic I think this would also make it better column material this way compare Fiocruz Genome and fight Muscular Dystrophy with Team EvC! (click) we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Admin Director Posts: 13107 From: EvC Forum Joined: |
A discussion board is the wrong format for what you're doing, which you're very good at. You *like* getting down and dirty with the data, finding it, sifting through it, analyzing it, organizing it, presenting it. You should be producing a website that includes your detailed rebuttals, and it would probably prove to be a valuable Internet resource. These rebuttals would be reference sources for discussion boards like this one, as well as for articles by other authors.
You have a website here. Do you need help with it? Is it that your site isn't indexed by Google? We may be able to fix that.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1659 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
ok
I'm indexed: age correlations razd - Google Search may just need to work on my keywords thanks Edited by RAZD, : subtitle compare Fiocruz Genome and fight Muscular Dystrophy with Team EvC! (click) we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Adminnemooseus Inactive Administrator |
RAZD - You should put your homepage link in your "signature".
Percy - Should there be a homepage button at the bottom of individual messages? Adminnemooseus New Members should start HERE to get an understanding of what makes great posts.
Comments on moderation procedures (or wish to respond to admin messages)? - Go to:
General discussion of moderation procedures Thread Reopen Requests Considerations of topic promotions from the "Proposed New Topics" forum Other useful links:
Forum Guidelines, [thread=-19,-112], [thread=-17,-45], [thread=-19,-337], [thread=-14,-1073]
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1659 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
ok
compare Fiocruz Genome and fight Muscular Dystrophy with Team EvC! (click) we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share.
|
|
|
Do Nothing Button
Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved
Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024