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Author Topic:   2024 US Presidential Election
Percy
Member
Posts: 22608
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 1 of 1053 (911476)
07-09-2023 11:11 AM


The 2024 US Presidential Election is already underway. These are the declared Republican candidates so far:
  • Donald Trump. The elephant in the room. Mr. Narcissist. Never met a lie he couldn't tell.
  • Ron DeSantis. Feels like the Darth Vader of the pack. No one crueler.
  • Chris Christie. One of two Republicans talking honest sense. He'll take some great jabs at Trump, but he hasn't got a chance.
  • Asa Huthinson. The other Republican talking honest sense. No chance.
  • Nikki Haley. She used to be a nice person, but then she learned to play politics.
  • Mike Pence. I think he held elected office once.
  • Tim Scott. Mr. Happy Boy. Ignorance is bliss.
  • Ryn Binkley. Has a nice ring to it: "President Binkley."
  • Doug Burgum. Who?
  • Larry Elder. Again, who?
  • Will Hurd. Yet again, who?
  • Perry Johnson. Where are they finding these guys?
  • Vivek Ramaswamy. Killed the most trees so far, we're getting tons of his mailings.
  • Francis Suarez. Mayor of Miami.
With the exception of Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, no Republican candidate dares criticize Trump because they know he'll come after them and that will kill their chances to pick up votes from Trump supporters. How do you win a race against someone you won't actually campaign against?
I expected that by now Chris Christie would be regularly making the news with pithy verbal takedowns of Trump, but either I'm reading the wrong news or he's been silent. He's even been to my own state of New Hampshire, but I didn't hear a peep about him.
Right now I can't see a Republican path to victory in 2024. Unless Trump drowns in his legal troubles he's got the Republican nomination locked up, but with all his legal baggage there seems no path to victory for him in the general election.
I can't see how Trump could fail to win the nomination as long as he has the support of most Republican politicians, but if he didn't then who could win? DeSantis seems a bit of a very hatable Nixonian figure, and I don't give him a chance. Pence hasn't gotten even a bit of traction so far, and I don't see that changing. Nikki Halley might be electable if when speaking at the national level she stops reciting the scary hateful parts of her platform. Happy Boy Tim Scott might have a chance.
If the Republican party does finally turn on Donald Trump (which seems impossible), then Chris Christie's the guy. He's smart, he's informed, he's entertaining, he's quotable, and he knows how to lead.
These are the declared Democratic candidates:
  • Joe Biden. A sitting president is almost never denied the nomination. Even weakened and beseiged by the Iranian hostage crisis and high inflation, Jimmy Carter tidily beat Ted Kennedy in the primaries. Joe Biden will be the Democratic nomineee.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Sounds familiar. I think I supported him in 1968.
  • Marianne Williamson. Not a chance.
2024 will come down to a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and given all his baggage Donald Trump doesn't have even a puncher's chance.
But the Republicans must see this, too, and just as in 2016 we're imagining conversations in Republican back rooms about how to prevent a Trump candidacy. But they couldn't prevent it in 2016, and I don't think they can prevent it now. They're doomed.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by nwr, posted 07-09-2023 11:23 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 3 by DrJones*, posted 07-09-2023 12:25 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 6 by Omnivorous, posted 07-09-2023 2:11 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 250 by BMG, posted 09-01-2023 2:04 PM Percy has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6419
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


(1)
Message 2 of 1053 (911477)
07-09-2023 11:23 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-09-2023 11:11 AM


I mostly agree with this.
I'm pretty sure that Christie and Hutchinson both know that they haven't a chance of actually winning. I take their real goal to be an attempt to return their party to sanity.

--> -->Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity <-- <--

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Percy, posted 07-09-2023 11:11 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
DrJones*
Member
Posts: 2293
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004
Member Rating: 5.9


Message 3 of 1053 (911478)
07-09-2023 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-09-2023 11:11 AM


... and given all his baggage Donald Trump doesn't have even a puncher's chance.
That's what they said in 2016. Never underestimate the republican's ability to hold their nose and vote for an odious candidate just to avoid voting for a dem.

It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds
soon I discovered that this rock thing was true
Jerry Lee Lewis was the devil
Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet
All of a sudden i found myself in love with the world
And so there was only one thing I could do
Was ding a ding dang my dang along ling long - Jesus Built my Hotrod Ministry
Live every week like it's Shark Week! - Tracey Jordan
Just a monkey in a long line of kings. - Matthew Good
If "elitist" just means "not the dumbest motherfucker in the room", I'll be an elitist! - Get Your War On
*not an actual doctor

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Percy, posted 07-09-2023 11:11 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

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Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 4 of 1053 (911479)
07-09-2023 1:29 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by DrJones*
07-09-2023 12:25 PM


Two old men
If Trump or Biden were my only options I wouldn't vote at all.
RFK Jr has name appeal but I would have to study his positions as well as Christie, should I swing that way.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17838
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 4.1


(2)
Message 5 of 1053 (911480)
07-09-2023 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Phat
07-09-2023 1:29 PM


Re: Two old men
quote:
RFK Jr has name appeal but I would have to study his positions
His position is best described as anti-vax nutcase.

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Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 4001
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


(3)
Message 6 of 1053 (911482)
07-09-2023 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-09-2023 11:11 AM


That pretty much covers the ground on candidates, no quibbles.
There are other headwinds against the GOP. In addition to candidate weakness and toxicity, Reps will be running with a Supreme albatross around their necks; inflation is cooling, and the economy is perking right along. The legislation Biden got through a divided Congress invests trillions into infrastructure and new industrial plant: this is starting to sink in, even across red states. Also, as you suggested, Republicans seem incapable of swearing off nuttery and thuggery. They just sound pig-eye mean.
Given all that, as well as the ongoing background demographic changes -- more young voters, more college educated voters, perhaps even the increased mortality in red states (because duh) -- I see a good chance for a Democrat trifecta.
Barring intervening black swans, definitely looks like Biden v. Trump again, ageing sanity and competence v. ageing psychopathy and incompetence.. Biden will beat him like a drum.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Percy, posted 07-09-2023 11:11 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Phat, posted 07-09-2023 2:32 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 7 of 1053 (911483)
07-09-2023 2:32 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Omnivorous
07-09-2023 2:11 PM


2024 Elections
Phat writes:
RFK Jr has name appeal but I would have to study his positions
PK writes:
His position is best described as anti-vax nutcase.
I googled his platform.(RFK Jr.)
PRO: He dislikes Fauci, as do I. However, as you say, the anti-vax stuff is/was excessive.
CONCLUSION: Not a good enough candidate.
Omni writes:
Reps will be running with a Supreme albatross around their necks; inflation is cooling, and the economy is perking right along. The legislation Biden got through a divided Congress invests trillions into infrastructure and new industrial plant: this is starting to sink in, even across red states.
In my opinion, inflation has only paused...not "cooled" for very long. Dems seem to think that money is like a giant game of musical chairs and as long as you keep spending it wisely, it will always hold its value and be there no matter how much you raise the debt ceiling. I believe we will be in for a rude awakening and revaluation of US economic status.
Omni writes:
Barring intervening black swans, (IT) looks like Biden v. Trump again, aging sanity and competence v. aging psychopathy and incompetence... Biden will beat him like a drum.
What I fear more than Biden is the VP who will come in on his coattails. We need sane traditional values...not extremism. If Dems go with a moderate VP, I might vote for the old codger. (though now he is simply getting too old)
Omni writes:
Given all that, as well as the ongoing background demographic changes -- more young voters, more college-educated voters, perhaps even the increased mortality in red states (because duh) -- I see a good chance for a Democrat trifecta.
Hopefully, the college-educated ones are fair and balanced and are not extremists. Jerry Rubin turned from radical to Wall Street...perhaps the new generation will also contribute its fair share of market capitalists who understand money.
‚Äč

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Omnivorous, posted 07-09-2023 2:11 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Omnivorous, posted 07-09-2023 2:58 PM Phat has replied
 Message 11 by xongsmith, posted 07-09-2023 4:22 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 4001
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


(3)
Message 8 of 1053 (911484)
07-09-2023 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by Phat
07-09-2023 2:32 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
The Democratic Party is a center left party: the furthest left of them, like AOC and Sanders, are social democrats, no more alarming than the average elected politician in Europe.
Fanatical, cultish, violence-threatening extremism is all on the right. That may be the most salient fact in 2024.
GOP candidates are now toxic to both independents and Democrats -- the latter even seem to have overcome their emergent property (as a coalition party) of circular firing squadism.
I sympathize with your fears, but I'm more confident about the national future than I've been for years. Maybe you should practice saying President Harris until you don't stutter.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Phat, posted 07-09-2023 2:32 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Phat, posted 07-09-2023 3:16 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 9 of 1053 (911486)
07-09-2023 3:16 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Omnivorous
07-09-2023 2:58 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
Omni writes:
The Democratic Party is a center left party: the furthest left of them, like AOC and Sanders, are social democrats, no more alarming than the average elected politician in Europe.
Have you seen the news from France lately?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Omnivorous, posted 07-09-2023 2:58 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by Omnivorous, posted 07-09-2023 3:18 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 07-10-2023 10:48 AM Phat has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 4001
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


(2)
Message 10 of 1053 (911488)
07-09-2023 3:18 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Phat
07-09-2023 3:16 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
Should I set my hair on fire?
What do you conclude about the average elected politician in Europe based on events in France?

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Phat, posted 07-09-2023 3:16 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2600
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 4.8


(6)
Message 11 of 1053 (911492)
07-09-2023 4:22 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by Phat
07-09-2023 2:32 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
Phat opines:
What I fear more than Biden is the VP that will come in on his coattails. We need sane traditional values...not extremism.
Phat! NAME ONE (1) Extremist thing about Kamela Harris!!
I double-dog DARE TOU!
She's moderate center-of-the-road, holding sane traditional values. Don't believe any more fucking LIES from Right-Wing Youtubes!!!!
Infact, I double-dog DARE you to post any Dem extremist values. Including Bernie and AOC!

"I'm the Grim Reaper now, Mitch. Step aside."
Death to #TzarVladimirtheCondemned!
Enjoy every sandwich!

- xongsmith, 5.7dawkins scale


This message is a reply to:
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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9277
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.7


(2)
Message 12 of 1053 (911494)
07-09-2023 5:49 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by xongsmith
07-09-2023 4:22 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
He would have to link to a youtube video, so I doubt you will get much of an answer.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by xongsmith, posted 07-09-2023 4:22 PM xongsmith has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22608
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


(3)
Message 13 of 1053 (911501)
07-10-2023 10:48 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by Phat
07-09-2023 3:16 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
Phat writes:
Omni writes:
The Democratic Party is a center left party: the furthest left of them, like AOC and Sanders, are social democrats, no more alarming than the average elected politician in Europe.
Have you seen the news from France lately?
You haven't said anything meaningful. What have French riots over an egregious police murder to do with Social Democracy in France?
There was a time maybe a year or so ago when you seemed to realize you weren't making sense and actually suspended participation for a while. Your attitude then seemed to be, "I realize I'm not making sense, so I'm not going to say anything for a little while."
Your attitude now seems to be, "I'm going to ignore the fact that I'm not making sense, in fact will insist that I am to making sense and plunge ahead anyway." You seem incapable of putting together any chain of inductive/deductive logic.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Phat, posted 07-09-2023 3:16 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by Phat, posted 07-10-2023 2:49 PM Percy has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 14 of 1053 (911510)
07-10-2023 2:49 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Percy
07-10-2023 10:48 AM


Re: 2024 Elections
TBH, my blood sugar has been going back up. Maybe I DO need a rest while I work on it again.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 07-10-2023 10:48 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by dwise1, posted 07-10-2023 2:58 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 16 by Percy, posted 07-10-2023 8:10 PM Phat has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5972
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 15 of 1053 (911511)
07-10-2023 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Phat
07-10-2023 2:49 PM


Re: 2024 Elections
Does that explain your having suddenly become an "Inactive Member"? Like literally nine minutes ago.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Phat, posted 07-10-2023 2:49 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
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