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Author Topic:   The Changing World Order
Phat
Member
Posts: 17111
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 1 of 264 (902534)
11-25-2022 12:30 AM


Full Name: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
I just received(ordered“) this book on Audible and also am having a paper copy sent to me. Ray Dalio explains the modern economy and the lessons learned from observing the past 2 world orders (Dutch and British) and the up-and-coming replacement for the United States, which will be China.
He studied this subject extensively and has a firm grasp of reality regarding observable and repeatable economic trends.
Amazon says this about him:
A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times
From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.
A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.
In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.
We can discuss it more once I've finished listening to it and reading it. This man is no con.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Phat has replied
 Message 3 by ringo, posted 11-25-2022 11:43 AM Phat has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 8140
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(2)
Message 2 of 264 (902544)
11-25-2022 10:33 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
11-25-2022 12:30 AM


Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
He is a billionaire hedge fund manager. The stock market is not the economy. He is no economist. Success in the stock market does not mean any knowledge or expertise in the economy as a whole.
But seems right up your alley. More bullshit from a narcissistic billionaire.
quote:
Four years ago, Ray Dalio threw at us a great big book of windy wisdom called “Principles.” He defined the title word as “fundamental truths that serve as the foundations for behavior that gets you what you want out of life,” a definition that seemed to promise a great deal, given that the author was the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the planet’s biggest hedge fund. The book was a treatise on the means to a successful life, written by a man so accustomed to being “admired and, above all, consulted” (to cite Zola on a character from his novel “Money”) that Mr. Dalio was apparently unfazed by his lack of expertise in ethics or philosophy. Faintly absurd was the fact that “Principles” doesn’t contain a single name in its index. Given its title, you’d have expected, at least, Aristotle, the Buddha, Christ or Spinoza.
In any case, “Principles” was a resounding hit—Amazon’s No. 1 business book for 2017, prompting Mr. Dalio to produce “Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises” a year later. Now, with “Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order,” he completes his trilogy of omniscience, putting forward sweeping explanations for why some nations succeed and others fail. Again he appears to dangle before the reader the promise of self-improvement, even financial gain. His purpose in writing a book about geopolitics, he says, “is to pass along what I learned that has helped me and that I believe might help you.”
“The Changing World Order” contains some valuable insights, but these are offered alongside numerous instances of triteness and truism, not to mention a more than occasional whiff of Chauncey Gardiner, the character in the film “Being There” whose humdrum utterances are mistaken for sapience. The book kicks off with the assertion that “the times ahead will be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times in history.” (I ran this fluffy line by a college student in my household. “Safe bet” was his response.) Later Mr. Dalio tells us of “the two things about war” about which we can be most confident: “1) that it won’t go as planned and 2) that it will be far worse than imagined.” Such vapidities turn up every fifth page or so, none more worthy of what millennials call a face-palm than his telling us that populists “are much more extreme than moderates” or that countries “hadn’t been invented yet” in the year 1500. (“Instead there were big family estates called kingdoms.”)
Mr. Dalio’s doctrine is that history is cyclical, a “perpetual-motion machine.” Great nations experience Big Cycles that swing between “peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity” and “depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction.” He identifies three cycle-types as key: the cycle of good and bad finances; the cycle of order and disorder within a country; and the cycle of external order and disorder. Periods of “boom and bust and peace and war,” Mr. Dalio writes, are “like the tide coming in and out.” You can’t help thinking that there’s a certain fatalism in his belief in the ineluctable “cycles” of history...
So, do you really need to fetishize history in order to be a successful investor? Surely not, judging by the great amounts of wealth that have been made by moneymen with a less Daliolithic outlook. With his overdrawn generalizations and all-encompassing abstractions, Mr. Dalio strains much too hard to persuade us that he’s not just a wildly successful businessman. He craves recognition as a polymath who has constructed a model for how the world works and as an all-American Renaissance man in the age of Xi Jinping.
Read the whole thing. Really shows what a vapid ass Dalio is.
‘Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order’ Review: Trouble Ahead, As Usual - WSJ

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 12:30 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:08 PM Theodoric has replied
 Message 6 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:18 PM Theodoric has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 20915
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 3 of 264 (902560)
11-25-2022 11:43 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
11-25-2022 12:30 AM


... legendary investor Ray Dalio,
Wikipedia fails to mention that he is legendary.

Come all of you cowboys all over this land,
I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command:
To hold a six shooter, and never to run
As long as there's bullets in both of your guns.
-- Woody Guthrie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 12:30 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:12 PM ringo has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 17111
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 4 of 264 (902608)
11-25-2022 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 10:33 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
Read the whole thing. Really shows what a vapid ass Dalio is.
Though I doubt that you listened to his presentation. You could care less, especially once that you realized he was a wealthy investor with what you see as an ego.
But this is so like you. You lump bitcoin and gold in the same category, never having understood the idea that the US dollar never really did (nor could) replace Gold.
Theo writes:
So, do you really need to fetishize history in order to be a successful investor? Surely not, judging by the great amounts of wealth that have been made by moneymen with a less Daliolithic outlook. With his overdrawn generalizations and all-encompassing abstractions, Mr. Dalio strains much too hard to persuade us that he’s not just a wildly successful businessman. He craves recognition as a polymath who has constructed a model for how the world works and as an all-American Renaissance man in the age of Xi Jinping.
The "great amounts" of wealth that have been created will in fact vanish just as quickly. Unlike you, Dalio knows that the dollar will tank. It will be a hard lesson for many, but it has in fact happened many times in History.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:18 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 17111
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 5 of 264 (902609)
11-25-2022 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by ringo
11-25-2022 11:43 AM


A Legend In His Own Mind
Of course. Labels are applied by fans, not facts. You could be the legendary ringo of Saskatchewan in my mind, but the facts show that you are just another member of the peanut gallery. And I could be an honest and good Christian according to my own ego and my Pastor, but the facts show that I do not listen to what Jesus said in many cases.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by ringo, posted 11-25-2022 11:43 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by ringo, posted 11-26-2022 11:06 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 17111
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 6 of 264 (902612)
11-25-2022 3:18 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 10:33 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
He is no economist.
Show me one economist who actually knows what he is talking about, apart from Galbraith who was a wise man. I predict that the Federal Reserve economists will be proven historically and tragically to be wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:21 PM Phat has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 8140
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 7 of 264 (902619)
11-25-2022 4:18 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Phat
11-25-2022 3:08 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
You understand nothing about economics and monetary theory. The dollar has replaced gold. Gold is pegged to the dollar not the other way around.
Where does he state the dollar will tank? and please show us the numerous times it has in history.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:08 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by Phat, posted 11-26-2022 2:54 AM Theodoric has replied
 Message 50 by Phat, posted 11-28-2022 11:44 AM Theodoric has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 8140
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 8 of 264 (902620)
11-25-2022 4:21 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Phat
11-25-2022 3:18 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Robert Reich, Paul Krugman. The fedboard are not liberals. They also seem to be threading a good course right now. Unemployment is low and inflation seems to be tamed.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:18 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Tanypteryx, posted 11-25-2022 6:37 PM Theodoric has replied
 Message 20 by Phat, posted 11-26-2022 3:18 PM Theodoric has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3773
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.0


(1)
Message 9 of 264 (902629)
11-25-2022 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 4:21 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Unemployment is low and inflation seems to be tamed.
Plus inflation is a global rather than a national economic condition right now, caused by interrupted production and distribution of products globally because of a global pandemic. Phat is completely clueless about pretty much everything that he thinks he's an expert in like the economy, finance, government, politics, history and civilization
It is truly bizarre that he can be wrong about everything he says without intentionally trying!

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:21 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 11:10 PM Tanypteryx has replied
 Message 19 by Phat, posted 11-26-2022 3:02 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 8140
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 10 of 264 (902642)
11-25-2022 11:10 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Tanypteryx
11-25-2022 6:37 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
He thinks these wealthy shelysters are giving him good advice, because it is a youtube video. He refuses to understand that gold has no intrinsic value and is a horrendous investment vehicle. He touted crypto as a way to keep the govt from taxing.
Billionaires pay next to noting in income tax, but the poor, handicapped and mentally ill are the problem in his view. He truly shows the Christian right mindset. He buys into what I call the right wing pecking order view of society. To them ones value is based upon abusing those below you on the wingnut socioeconomic scale. Fuck you, I got mine.
Nice christian values they have. Phat and they are proud of those values. As a US citizen and as a human being he disgusts me.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Tanypteryx, posted 11-25-2022 6:37 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by Tanypteryx, posted 11-25-2022 11:16 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3773
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 11 of 264 (902643)
11-25-2022 11:16 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 11:10 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
As a US citizen and has a human being he disgusts me.
Me too!

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 11:10 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 17111
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 12 of 264 (902647)
11-26-2022 2:54 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 4:18 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
You understand nothing about economics and monetary theory.
Neither do you. It is evident. Stick to archeology and whatever else it is you do professionally. 50% of your net worth will likely get wiped out within 2 years. But of course you will never listen to a troll under a rock! You will learn.
The dollar has replaced gold. Gold is pegged to the dollar not the other way around.
The main reason that Nixon decoupled gold and the dollar was that more dollars were being printed above and beyond the gold that backed them. Other nations, not trusting the value of the dollar, preferred gold as payment. The United States was losing its gold reserves slowly but surely. When Nixon uncoupled the dollar and gold, many analysts, including a young Dalio on the NYSE, expected stocks to fall. Instead, the values went up as well as the value of the unshackled gold. It makes no sense for gold to be pegged to the dollar since the dollar can be and is inflated through the creation of more of it on demand. the dollar was pegged to gold in the twenties when FDR called in all of the gold and revalued the gold from $20.00 an ounce to $35.00 an ounce. Where on earth did you get the idea that gold was pegged to the dollar? That is the most outlandish claim and an example of the sheer audaciousness of your sources.
Each Empire (Dutch, British, and American) has at one time had the dominant global reserve currency. The Dutch Guilder crashed when the empire did. The British Pound also tanked at the end of WW II when Britain could not pay its debts. A similar fate awaits the Dollar, although the government is trying to keep the Dollar club afloat globally. It is at its high right now, coincidentally as war is being waged in Ukraine. You of course won't believe that the almighty dollar can crash, but we have inflated it and debased it for far too long.
AddByEdit: Answer me this: What backs the Dollar, apart from the faith of the people? Never in History has a currency in a declining empire lasted very long. The Dollar, like the secular humanist idea of authority, is but a puff of smoke and vapor.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:18 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by ringo, posted 11-26-2022 11:11 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 15 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 11:21 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 47 by Taq, posted 11-28-2022 11:30 AM Phat has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 20915
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 13 of 264 (902660)
11-26-2022 11:06 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Phat
11-25-2022 3:12 PM


Re: A Legend In His Own Mind
Phat writes:
... the facts show that you are just another member of the peanut gallery.
On the contrary, I'm a highly visible and highly vocal member of the peanut gallery. I could damn near have my own gallery.
Phat writes:
And I could be an honest and good Christian according to my own ego and my Pastor...
But we can only assess you by what you post - and that's getting pretty ugly.
As I said before, you don't need yet another topic to post the same-old same-old garbage in. Go back and answer the rebuttals in all of the other topics.

Come all of you cowboys all over this land,
I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command:
To hold a six shooter, and never to run
As long as there's bullets in both of your guns.
-- Woody Guthrie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Phat, posted 11-25-2022 3:12 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 20915
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.7


(2)
Message 14 of 264 (902661)
11-26-2022 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
11-26-2022 2:54 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Phat writes:
What backs the Dollar, apart from the faith of the people?
That's like asking what floats a boat apart from the water.

Come all of you cowboys all over this land,
I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command:
To hold a six shooter, and never to run
As long as there's bullets in both of your guns.
-- Woody Guthrie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Phat, posted 11-26-2022 2:54 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 11:23 AM ringo has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 8140
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 15 of 264 (902662)
11-26-2022 11:21 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
11-26-2022 2:54 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
50% of your net worth will likely get wiped out within 2 years.
So you and the rest of the gold bugs know more than every reputable economist, bank and financial firm? That the Dems held back the MAGAt insurgency will prevent any instability that might have caused that. Again and as always you provide no facts or evidence to back your crazy wild ass assertions.
Pegged was the wrong term I meant valued. Goods and services are not priced by gold, they are priced in dollars and other fiat currencies. That includes gold which is merely a commodity, not a currency. Commodities are a terrible thing to base an economy on as they are subject to speculation and manipulation. See Hunt brothers and silver.
Gold has no intrinsic value. Its value is based upon a belief of value. It has very little actual use.
You stated earlier that
Unlike you, Dalio knows that the dollar will tank. It will be a hard lesson for many, but it has in fact happened many times in History.
Still no answer to this
Where did Dalio say this and when has this happened? Were you lying again?
Each Empire (Dutch, British, and American) has at one time had the dominant global reserve currency. The Dutch Guilder crashed when the empire did.
Did what?
The guilder was not on the gold standard until 1873. Any collapse of the guilder in history is directly tied to the loss of status as a world empire or due to wars(Napoleanic). The guilder was a not a fiat currency it was always pegged to silver or gold until 1936 and it remained stable until the Euro changeover.
The British Pound also tanked at the end of WW II when Britain could not pay its debts.
They just finished a world war. Irrelevant unless you can actually make an argument tying the result to fiat currency.
A similar fate awaits the Dollar, although the government is trying to keep the Dollar club afloat globally. It is at its high right now, coincidentally as war is being waged in Ukraine.
Please show any evidence for any of this.
You of course won't believe that the almighty dollar can crash, but we have inflated it and debased it for far too long.
Please show any evidence for any of this.
What backs the Dollar, apart from the faith of the people?
Complete faith and credit of the United States of America. Much more stable than a commodity subject to market manipulation.
Never in History has a currency in a declining empire lasted very long. The Dollar, like the secular humanist idea of authority, is but a puff of smoke and vapor.
Irrelevant, but nice to see your anti-USA fervor. I notice the currencies of Theocracies suck. Go you.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Phat, posted 11-26-2022 2:54 AM Phat has not replied

  
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