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Author Topic:   Fukushima Apocalypse
GDR
Member (Idle past 274 days)
Posts: 5410
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005


Message 1 of 41 (704795)
08-17-2013 3:58 PM


I just had this report e-mailed to me and I was wondering what some of the bright lights around here think of this report.

Fukushima Apocalypse

Here is a small portion of the article.

quote:
But as far as Fukushima goes, the only thing that matters now is if world leaders and experts join forces to help fix this situation. Regardless of what agendas they are trying to protect or hide, how much it will cost, the effect on Japan or the world’s economy, or what political chains this will yank.

The nuclear industry needs to come clean. If this leads to every reactor in the world being shut down, so be it. If the world governments truly care about their people and this planet, this is what needs to be done.

Renowned theoretical physicist Michio Kaku stated in an interview a few weeks after the initial accident that “TEPCO is literally hanging on by their fingernails.” They still are, and always have been. The Japanese have proven time and time again they are not capable of handling this disaster. Now we are entrusting them to execute the most dangerous fuel removal in history.

We are extremely lucky that this apocalyptic scenario hasn't happened yet, considering the state of Reactor 4. But for many, it is already too late. The initial explosions and spent fuel pool fires may have already sealed the fate of millions of people. Time will tell. Anyone who tells you otherwise is not being honest, because there is just no way to know.


Is it as dire as the picture that is being painted?


He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:8


Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Rahvin, posted 08-17-2013 8:18 PM GDR has replied
 Message 4 by yenmor, posted 08-18-2013 11:40 AM GDR has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 3966
Joined: 07-01-2005


(1)
Message 2 of 41 (704802)
08-17-2013 8:18 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by GDR
08-17-2013 3:58 PM


It's an interview with an anti-nuke activist. Nothing but care nonsense. She's a "fallout researcher" who founded "Nuked radio." This isn;t the Atomic Energy Commission or the World Heath Organization. She's talking about bioaccumulation and other very bad things...that have so far cause zero deaths, no icnidence of cancer, and are not expected to cause any statistically identifiable deviation in cancer incidence from the rest of the population, and that is from the WHO.

For all the scaremongering, she completely ignores what has actually happened so far:

from wiki:

quote:
There were no deaths caused by radiation exposure, while approximately 18,500 people died due to the earthquake and tsunami. Future cancer deaths from accumulated radiation exposures in the population living near Fukushima are predicted to be extremely low to none.[145]

Following the power station accident, two Stanford University professors, Mark Z. Jacobson and his colleague John Ten Hoeve, suggest that according to the linear no-threshold model (LNT model) the accident is most likely to cause an eventual total of 130 cancer deaths.[14] Radiation epidemiologist Roy Shore contends that estimating health effects in a population from the LNT model "is not wise because of the uncertainties".[146] The LNT model did not accurately model casualties from Chernobyl, Hiroshima or Nagasaki; it greatly overestimated the casualties. Evidence that the LNT model is a gross distortion of damage from radiation has existed since 1946, and was suppressed by Nobel Prize winner Hermann Muller in favour of assertions that no amount of radiation is safe.[147][148][149]

In 2013 (two years after the incident), the World Health Organization indicated that the residents of the area who were evacuated were exposed to so little radiation that radiation induced health impacts are likely to be below detectable levels.[150] The health risks in the WHO assessment attributable to the Fukushima radiation release were calculated by largely applying the conservative Linear no-threshold model of radiation exposure, a model that assumes even the smallest amount of radiation exposure will cause a negative health effect.[151]

The WHO calculations using this model determined that the most at risk group, infants, who were in the most affected area, would experience an absolute increase in the risk of cancer (of all types) during their lifetime, of approximately 1% due to the accident. With the lifetime risk increase for thyroid cancer, due to the accident, for a female infant, in the most affected radiation location, being estimated to be one half of one percent[0.5%].[13][152] Cancer risks for the unborn child are considered to be similar to those in 1 year old infants.[153]

The estimated risk of cancer to people who were children and adults during the Fukushima accident, in the most affected area, was determined to be lower again when compared to the most at risk group - infants.[154] A thyroid ultrasound screening programme is currently[2013] ongoing in the entire Fukushima prefecture, this screening programme is, due to the screening effect, likely to lead to an increase in the incidence of thyroid disease due to early detection of non-symptomatic disease cases.[155] About one-third of people[~30%] in industrialized nations are presently diagnosed with cancer during their lifetimes, radiation exposure can increase ones cancer risk, with the cancers that arise being indistinguishable from cancers resulting from other causes.[156]

No increase is expected in the incidence of congenital or developmental abnormalities, including cognitive impairment attributable to within the womb radiation exposure.[157] As no radiation induced inherited effects/heritable effects, nor teratogenic effects, have ever been definitely demonstrated in humans who experienced levels of radiation exposure comparable to those encountered following the accident, with large studies on the health of children conceived by cancer survivors who received radiotherapy that resulted in comparable levels of exposure, and studies on the children of the Hibakusha, who likewise experienced similar levels, not detecting an increase in inherited disease or congenital abnormalities.[158] No increase in these effects are therefore expected in or around the Fukushima power plants.


'The mainstream media, world governments, nuclear agencies, health organizations, weather reporters, and the health care industry has completely ignored three ongoing triple meltdowns that have never been contained'

This is a major red flag that the speaker is a quack. All of the world governments, all of the scientists involved in the WHO, the International Nuclear Energy Commission, all of these people who exist simply to identify the very sort of emergency she's talking about have been ignoring the problem, but miraculously she realizes the true danger! It's no different from the 9/11 conspiracy theorists.

And weather reporters?! Really? Meteorologists might be useful if there were actually airborne fallout as from an air-detonated nuclear weapon, but this is just absurd.

Nuclear power is the safest method of power generation per unit of power generated by far. Fukushima has caused zero deaths. Zero. None. Nada. Not a single solitary person has died.

Are there potential hazards in continuing the cleanup? Of course.

But this statement?

'At least the northern half of Japan would be uninhabitable, and some researchers have argued that it already is'

If Hiroshima and Nagasaki didn't render half of Japan uninhabitable, how precisely would Fukushima accomplish such a feat?


“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

“A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus

"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995...

"Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings

Nihil supernum


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by GDR, posted 08-17-2013 3:58 PM GDR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by GDR, posted 08-17-2013 8:30 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
GDR
Member (Idle past 274 days)
Posts: 5410
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005


Message 3 of 41 (704803)
08-17-2013 8:30 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Rahvin
08-17-2013 8:18 PM


Thanks Rahvin

I am totally uninformed on the situation and I'm glad to hear the other side of the issue which is far less apocalyptic.


He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:8


This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Rahvin, posted 08-17-2013 8:18 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
yenmor
Member (Idle past 2977 days)
Posts: 145
Joined: 07-01-2013


(1)
Message 4 of 41 (704816)
08-18-2013 11:40 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by GDR
08-17-2013 3:58 PM


I personally have a grudge on these doomsday nutcases. Their overexaggerated tone turn people off to anything that sounds like a doomsday forecast. This is dangerous because normal everyday people can't tell the difference between what's real and what's not. Why do you think people still won't believe in global climate change?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by GDR, posted 08-17-2013 3:58 PM GDR has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by ramoss, posted 08-18-2013 2:35 PM yenmor has replied

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


(2)
Message 5 of 41 (704822)
08-18-2013 2:35 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by yenmor
08-18-2013 11:40 AM


On the other hand, the truth is not all rosy either.

Fukushima Reactor still leaking radioactive water into the ocean

While it is not nearly the 'doomsday' scenario that is mentioned earlier, neither is it a good situation.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by yenmor, posted 08-18-2013 11:40 AM yenmor has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by yenmor, posted 09-01-2013 4:31 PM ramoss has not replied

  
GDR
Member (Idle past 274 days)
Posts: 5410
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005


Message 6 of 41 (705737)
09-01-2013 10:33 AM


Yesterday I read this on CNN.

Why Fukushima is worse than you think

...and today this on the Canadian news talking about a spike in radiation levels from one of the tanks.

Radiation Leak

It sounds like after two years they are still a long way from getting it under control.


He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:8


Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by ramoss, posted 09-01-2013 1:10 PM GDR has not replied

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 7 of 41 (705740)
09-01-2013 1:10 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by GDR
09-01-2013 10:33 AM


I had heard estimates of 30.

On another note, the plumb of radioactive water that is spilling into the ocean from Japan should reach the north american shores in about 2014. It is good that it happens on the side of Japan that it did, because of the turbulent water diffused it. .. so it might not be as bad as if it wasn't defused. On the other hand.. I am not going to be eating sea food for a while.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by GDR, posted 09-01-2013 10:33 AM GDR has not replied

  
yenmor
Member (Idle past 2977 days)
Posts: 145
Joined: 07-01-2013


Message 8 of 41 (705742)
09-01-2013 4:31 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by ramoss
08-18-2013 2:35 PM


Well, no the news isn't too rosy. But you have to remember human nature. People tend to think in terms of extremes when it comes to things they don't understand. Most people have no idea what radiation is or what radiation sickness entails, much similar to the fact that most people don't know the difference between a viral infection versus a bacterial one. So, they think in terms of extremes.

To most people, a reactor leak is either good or bad. Just like how parents will insist that doctors prescribe anti-biotics to their kids for viral infections. Anti-biotics either works or it doesn't. They don't know or care about the details.

This is why I would rather we let the experts in their respective fields deal with the situation and forego public opinion.

The fukushima situation is far from apocalyptic. But it's not too rosy either. It's somewhere in between. Exactly where that is I will leave it to the experts to decide.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by ramoss, posted 08-18-2013 2:35 PM ramoss has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by GDR, posted 09-01-2013 4:56 PM yenmor has replied

  
GDR
Member (Idle past 274 days)
Posts: 5410
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005


Message 9 of 41 (705743)
09-01-2013 4:56 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by yenmor
09-01-2013 4:31 PM


Thanks Yenmor

I have no personal point in this at all other than it seems like an area for concern and I live right on the western coast of the continent. It would be hard to find someone who knows less about it than I do.

I just hope that the experts not only know what they are doing but that they actually have a workable plan. It does seem that so far their record hasn't been all that great.

I'll be glad when we get solar energy down to the point that it is all we need, but right now we are a long way from that.


He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:8


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by yenmor, posted 09-01-2013 4:31 PM yenmor has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by yenmor, posted 09-01-2013 5:35 PM GDR has replied

  
yenmor
Member (Idle past 2977 days)
Posts: 145
Joined: 07-01-2013


Message 10 of 41 (705745)
09-01-2013 5:35 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by GDR
09-01-2013 4:56 PM


GDR writes:

I just hope that the experts not only know what they are doing but that they actually have a workable plan. It does seem that so far their record hasn't been all that great.

Sometimes, it is easy for bystanders like ourselves to criticize without knowing the specifics.

I have a friend who's a financial planner for a major corporation. One time, he told me that one time he overheard someone working at a mcdonalds talking on their lunch break telling his friend that he could perform white collar jobs just as well as these financial planners that you read about on the news. While my friend didn't say anything, he really wanted to say "if it's so easy, why don't you do it?"

I'm an engineer by day and a programmer by night. I have a few programs published and copyrighted. So, I know the challenges that people in some of these professions face. Seems simple to the rest of the world, but it's really not when you're actually doing it.

For example, one time I told someone about this time that in the company I worked at at the time where we knew we made a wrong calculation somewhere but couldn't figure out where. We had every engineer in the department go through line by line the plans to see where it went wrong. Well, it turned out to be a misplaced negative sign. This guy immediately said "that's it? I could have figured that out." I had to bite my tongue to keep myself from saying "if it's so easy, why don't you do it instead of working as a mover?"

I'm no scientist. And I'm certainly no radiation expert. But I've encountered too many times in my life where normal people belittle my profession that I can appreciate how hard it is for these experts to deal with their respective situations.

Now, the problem comes in when politicians who knew nothing about the subject intervene. It happens all the time in engineering. The most famous example is when Katrina hit. Every inspector said the levee was going to fail. There were groups of engineers who also warned the officials that the levees were very likely to fail in a major storm event. Well, we all know what happened after the officials ignored the warnings of experts.

Now, there is a new problem on the horizon. Every engineering group in the country has been telling everyone that our bridges are due to fail in a few years. And yet what happened when the officials needed to slash budgets to accommodate for tax cuts? They slashed infrastructure budget.

But that's a whole other story.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by GDR, posted 09-01-2013 4:56 PM GDR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by NoNukes, posted 09-01-2013 8:13 PM yenmor has not replied
 Message 12 by GDR, posted 09-01-2013 8:18 PM yenmor has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 11 of 41 (705754)
09-01-2013 8:13 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by yenmor
09-01-2013 5:35 PM


Nit pic
I have a few programs published and copyrighted.

Minor nitpick, but perhaps it might matter to you if you do any programming other than for an employer.

Every original program you've ever typed into a computer and have not explicitly placed into the public domain is protected by copyright. It does not matter whether or not you've filed anything with the copyright office.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by yenmor, posted 09-01-2013 5:35 PM yenmor has not replied

  
GDR
Member (Idle past 274 days)
Posts: 5410
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005


Message 12 of 41 (705756)
09-01-2013 8:18 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by yenmor
09-01-2013 5:35 PM


I don't disagree with any of that but the experts put this plant where they did; it looks like the kept it going longer than they should have; we've got radioactive waste well out into the Pacific along with other links still occurring 2 years later.

I have no doubt they are doing all they can but it hasn't been pretty. I'm certainly not suggesting that it is easy and I'm not suggesting that I have the slightest clue as to what should be done.


He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:8


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by yenmor, posted 09-01-2013 5:35 PM yenmor has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 09-01-2013 10:54 PM GDR has not replied
 Message 16 by yenmor, posted 09-02-2013 10:35 PM GDR has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8971
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 13 of 41 (705762)
09-01-2013 10:54 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by GDR
09-01-2013 8:18 PM


Significant F-Up
I don't doubt that there is a big screw up there in Japan but I don't see decent reporting on either side of it (maybe I haven't looked hard enough).

Reading about the amount of Cs137 laden water stored suggests there is a hell of a lot -- 100's of 1,000s of tonnes. And I don't like the idea of it getting into the Pacific (which I border too) much at all.

However, what I'd like to see is a measure of what fraction of the radiation I get anyway this represents. How radioactive is a 'normal' sample of Pacific seawater?

I lazy quick look at wiki suggests that the Fukushima release might be of an amount of radioactivity about the size of what has been dumped into the oceans before the 1993 ban. So it is not to be ignored at all.

But it also hasn't all gotten there (yet?) and I suggest that doubling the man made dump into the oceans isn't by itself and "apocalypse".


This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by GDR, posted 09-01-2013 8:18 PM GDR has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by Coyote, posted 09-01-2013 11:12 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 14 of 41 (705763)
09-01-2013 11:12 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by NosyNed
09-01-2013 10:54 PM


Re: Significant F-Up
Another factor: the half-life of Cs137 is just over 30 years.

So, the stuff is going away, although not as quickly as we might prefer.

This can be added to the dilution factor you mentioned.

I wonder if there are any good studies on the dispersion of things in the north Pacific from Japan to the US west coast that might be of help?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 09-01-2013 10:54 PM NosyNed has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by NoNukes, posted 09-02-2013 10:06 PM Coyote has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 15 of 41 (705830)
09-02-2013 10:06 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Coyote
09-01-2013 11:12 PM


Re: Significant F-Up
Another factor: the half-life of Cs137 is just over 30 years.

That kind of half-life is a double whammy. It is short enough to make Cs-137 active and dangerous and long enough to keep Cs-137 around for long periods of time.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass


This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Coyote, posted 09-01-2013 11:12 PM Coyote has not replied

  
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