The Second Trump Presidency

For a good read on how closely what's happening now resembles Germnay in the early 1930s read How Close Are We to the Third Reich? at Esquire or under the title Never Again...Again at Apple News. I didn't realize until a few sentences in that 45/47 refers to Trump.--Percy

OPM instructs agencies to turn over plans for mass government layoffs, says a headline at The Hill. The article says that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) have directed governmental agencies to submit plans for reductions in force by March 13.The article directs agencies to focus on areas not legally mandated and to make high quality and efficient delivery of legally required functions a priority. The memo suggested that targeted functions might be those that aren't staffed during government shutdowns.The chaotic and willy nilly layoffs of what the government calls probationary employees, which only means they were hired within the last two years, was an excellent example of how not to downsize. Probationary employees were targeted simply because they have fewer protections, not because their jobs weren't essential. That many had to be rehired makes this inarguable, such as the rehiring of nuclear workers. The firing of IRS employees was equally nonsensical. A recently hired employee could be inexperienced and superfluous, perhaps someone they hoped to develop, or could be highly experienced and essential, hired to replace another highly experienced and essential employee who had resigned or retired. Musk's approach was random and dangerous.Whether you agree with downsizing government or not, at least this new approach involves method and process and was what should have been done from the beginning.--Percy

Last night I saw the headlines about the Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, then this morning I read some of the articles. The first two were from major outlets, one was WSJ, and they took for granted that Zelenskyy had behaved abysmally and rudely in the Oval Office and disrespected Trump and the American people, but I couldn't find any details, but I had the nagging feeling that it was a setup.Then read a few more articles and discovered the details that revealed that that is what had happened. Trump and Zelenskyy met behind the scenes, then they called reporters into the Oval Office for what is traditionally just an opportunity to take photos, watch a little polite dialog, and ask a couple questions. Instead Trump and Vance berated Zelenskyy for not making more concessions, and when he emphasized the importance of having western help Trump and Vance piled on, blaming Zelenskyy for not being thankful for the help provided so far when the opposite is true.It was a grotesque display, and it was all recorded. There can be no doubt of what happened. Trump is leading America into a partnership with dictators around the world, Putin first among them. At Least Now We Know the Truth about Trump and Vance--Percy

Why did the "transparency" guy leave the room? Somehow I feel it's not out of embarrassment but because he's just so pleased with how things are going that he can't bother.--Percy

Oh, what a surprise! Trump has suspended the new tariffs for the automakers. Who would ever have guessed that tariffs would have a severely negative impact on some industries? Certainly not the Trump administration. What a masterful demonstration of lack of foresight and planning!The reason the car industry is severely affected is that during manufacture the incompletely assembled automobile crosses the border multiple times, and each crossing (in either direction) will add 25% once Mexico implements their tariffs. Costs quickly multiply. Just three crossings back and forth (total of six) could easily add 100%, making me think that the number of crossings must be only two or three.So far only the car industry has complained, but in this complex world there must be many other examples. How about the computer industry or the cell phone industry or shoe industry or the clothing industry, etc. There must be many industries where the not-yet-complete product crosses national borders more than once, and if there are tariffs then each crossing adds to the cost.It would be nice if tariffs could be applied only to completed products, but that wouldn't work because then the automakers would make sure the final step takes place in the U.S. Also, one person's complete product is often just a platform for someone else to add more on.Tariffs on everything are a bad idea, and bad ideas are something Trump has a particular affinity for. Tariffs are for protecting domestic industries from foreign competition. If a foreign country is heavily subsidizing a product, say electric cars, then we might put tariffs on their electric cars to protect our domestic industry. Or we might have an industry critical for national defense that we want to protect. But tariffs across the board make no sense.--Percy

Oh, what a surprise! Trump has delayed the start of the tariffs on Mexico for a month. He'll likely do the same for Canada, or not, who knows. There's a plan behind it all, and that's to keep Trump at the center of attention and to suck up all the air out of the room for the next four years. He will zig. He will zag. He will keep us in suspense. He will keep us guessing. He'll react to events as they occur, mainly the polls, the stock market, and how we'll he's playing on television. That's the plan.--PercyAbE: He also just decided not to disband the Department of Education today. Don't change the channel, folks. You don't want to miss any of the action.

Yes, that's important to note. A country retreating from the world in terms of trade, military power and political influence will be less able to maintain its currency's dominant status.--Percy

The Trump show continues. After allowing Musk to engage in headline grabbing and likely illegal firings and data grabs, Trump has walked the chaos back a little. Now it will be cabinet secretaries who make the hiring and firing decisions instead of Musk's DOGE, which has no official power in Washington. They are, at least on paper, an advisory group. Trump did say that if the cabinet secretaries can't carry out sufficient RIFs that then Musk's DOGE will do it, which is, again, just an advisory group with no power whose any attempt to taking control or action will be vulnerable to legal challenge.Here's the first few paragraphs from a Bloomberg article:

Bloomberg:

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President Donald Trump said he directed cabinet secretaries to use a “scalpel” rather than a “hatchet” to make personnel cuts, a directive aiming to quell blowback after waves of job cuts have roiled the federal workforce.

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“I have instructed the Secretaries and Leadership to work with DOGE on Cost Cutting measures and Staffing,” Trump said in a social media post on Thursday, referring to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency effort. “As the Secretaries learn about, and understand, the people working for the various Departments, they can be very precise as to who will remain, and who will go.”

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“It’s very important that we cut levels down to where they should be, but it’s also important to keep the best and most productive people,” Trump added.

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This is how it should have been from the beginning, with the exception of the part that implies DOGE might be a participant rather than an advisor.--Percy

This is just a comment from an opinion piece by Jeremy Clarkson (have no idea who he is, but he must be somebody to get in the Sunday Times opinion section), Who’ll take on JD Vance? Guess it has to be me:

Jeremy Clarkson:

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There’s a maniacal bully in the White House, a killer in the Kremlin and Nato is on the brink of collapse. And no one dares say anything because Trump is the school bully and he’ll flush your head down the loo. It will take a week or two for us all to get our heads round that. But soon we are going to need someone who will rage and rage against the dying of the light.

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--Percy

Just trying to keep up with the news. Trump said that it is possible that tariffs could cause a recession. Anyone from the Trump side have a reaction?—Percy

It seems like 90% of front page articles are about Trump these days. As has become the norm, he's sucking all the air out of the room and pushing much of the other notable news onto the back pages.But in reading all these articles I thought I saw maybe a glimmer of hope. While Trump is stubborn about many things (e.g., the conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was stolen from him), he will turn on a dime on many others. We witness this all the time with Trump, most recently with the on-again/off-again/modify-again tariffs, and it is in this that I find hope.The tariff flip flops and the continued chaotic layoffs and threats to Medicare and Social Security are sending the country into an uproar and potential tailspin. Trump says a recession is possible. The stock market is diving.But Trump usually places great importance on economic indicators. I used the word "usually" because some indications are that he may be ignoring them right now, as reflected in his comment about a possible recession, but his long term history is to place great importance on them. He loves to be adored for how well the economy is doing.For that reason I think Trump will flip-flop, he'll declare victory, and the tariff threat will diminish and recede into the background.That still leaves the wholesale firing of government employees and the dismantling, hamstringing or kneecapping of essential government agencies. Musk paid a quarter billion dollars for the privilege of taking charge of downsizing government, and we have to remember Musk's philosophy on how to get things done quickly: "Move fast and break things."But there's a problem with that approach. When Tesla and Space-X were startups, this was an approach that worked, but it seems highly inadvisable for an established government where the lives of people across the whole country can be affected. What if older people can't get health care through Medicare because doctors won't treat them because the Medicare payment system has broken down? What if they stop receiving their Social Security checks? What if SNAP (formerly food stamps) breaks? What if there is an airplane crash that causes significant cutbacks in airline flights due to concerns about safety? We must keep asking these kinds of questions that are focused on potential threats that we face with current Trump policies.I hope that Trump eventually sees Musk's actions as a threat to the economy and starts reining him in.As far as geopolitics, it looks like we'll have to take a wait and see approach. Zelenskyy was adamant at the Oval Office meeting that Ukraine needed guarantees before negotiating with Russia, whether it was for peace or just a cease fire. He's had to knuckle under, and the current path today (it could change at any moment given Trump proclivities) is toward a negotiated cease fire between Ukraine and Russia.Trump claims that Putin wouldn't dare violate such a cease fire agreement because he and Putin have a good working relationship, and because Trump is a strong president (unlike Biden) such that Putin would never violate a deal brokered by the United States. We'll have to see how many Russian cease fire violations have to happen before Trump agrees that Putin is violating the agreement, and then the question becomes what would Trump (a powerful president) do.The same problem exists for a U.S. brokered peace. Would Trump consider it a violation of the peace deal if Russia annexes Donetsk? How invested is Zelenskyy in recovering Crimea, which was not historically been part of Ukraine but was given to Ukraine by Krushchev 70 years ago?In related news, the Greenland political party most opposed to acquisition by the United States won yesterday's election with 30% of the vote and will be forming a coalition with smaller parties to form a government.I see tiny glints of hope, and I hope they're real.--Percy

In CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBILITY AND ETHICS IN WASHINGTON v. U.S. DOGE SERVICE, et al., a freedom of information request, U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ruling included the following:

quote:

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News reports also suggest that USDS has continued to conduct at least some operations outside official government systems.
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USDS’s operations thus far have been marked by unusual secrecy in other ways, too. For instance, USDS reportedly installed an outside server at OPM to store government staffers’ personal information, including their names and email accounts.
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Moreover, reports that USDS personnel have gained access to sensitive data and payment systems, classified information without the appropriate clearances, and operate in secrecy using auto-deleting messaging apps like Signal, each call into question “the Government’s integrity...”
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That is especially so given the secrecy with which USDS has operated. For instance, the name of the USDS Administrator was not even released until February 25, more than a month into the new administration.
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CREW also notes reports that USDS employees have refused to identify themselves when requested to do so by career officials, further suggesting that the agency is operating with unusual secrecy. Sarah Cahalan et al., The People Carrying Out Musk’s Plans at DOGE, N.Y. Times (Mar. 6, 2025), Not Found - The New York Times. Indeed, Musk tweeted that a poster who published the names of USDS employees “committed a crime.” Peter Suciu, supra. USDS also allegedly installed an “illegally connected server” at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management’s headquarters to store personally identifiable information about executive branch employees. Dell Cameron, Federal Workers Sue to Disconnect DOGE Server, WIRED (Feb. 4, 2025), Page Not Found | WIRED.

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This opinion appears at the top of the ruling:

quote:

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MEMORANDUM OPINION

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Government watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (“CREW”) lodged two Freedom of Information Requests with the Office of Management and Budget (“OMB”) and one with the United States DOGE Service (“USDS”) seeking to learn more about USDS’s role in spearheading the mass firings and dramatic disruptions to federal programs that have punctuated the opening weeks of President Trump’s second term. OMB accepted CREW’s requests and agreed to process them on an expedited basis given the public importance of the records sought. USDS, on the other hand, refuses to process CREW’s request to it on the ground that USDS is not an “agency” subject to FOIA. CREW sued and simultaneously sought a preliminary injunction ordering USDS to take up its request and requiring both entities to produce responsive documents by today’s date in order to inform public debate on appropriations legislation now being considered by Congress.

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Finding that USDS is likely covered by FOIA and that the public would be irreparably harmed by an indefinite delay in unearthing the records CREW seeks, the Court will order USDS to process CREW’s request on an expedited timetable and, after receiving proposals on a production schedule, to begin producing documents on a rolling basis as soon as practicable.

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CREW has not established that it is entitled to disclosure by a date certain, however. The Court will therefore deny CREW’s request for an order directing OMB and USDS to produce records by today. Finally, the Court will also order both entities to preserve all records that may be responsive to CREW’s FOIA requests.

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At least as far as DOGE is concerned, the promised transparency is actually the opposite: extreme secrecy combined with a willingness to go to court to protect that secrecy.--Percy

I'm all in on free speech, but Trump's persistent lying since 2015 is causing me to begin wondering whether we should question this nearly unquestionable American value. Today we learned that the Oklahoma Board of Education Adds Questioning the 2000 Election to the Curiculum. The NYT has a paywall, so here's a few paragraphs of excerpts:

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High school students in Oklahoma would be asked to identify “discrepancies” in the 2020 election as part of U.S. history classes, according to new social studies standards recently approved by the Oklahoma Board of Education.

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The proposed standards seem to echo President Trump’s false claims about his 2020 defeat. They ask students to examine factors such as “the sudden halting of ballot-counting in select cities in key battleground states” and “the security risks of mail-in balloting.”

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They now head to the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature, which could take up the issue before its term ends in late May, or punt the issue to the governor’s desk.

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Will Oklahoma's Republican controlled legislature reject it? If not, will their Republican governor?If not then teaching lies could well become part of the school curriculum in Oklahoma, and all because of Donald Trump's impressive talent for promoting falsehoods. And in America, falsehoods are protected speech, with the well known "yelling fire in a crowded theater" types of exceptions. Is it possible not to threaten free speech while preventing the kind of speech responsible for what's happening in Oklahoma?I have no answers.--Percy

I cannot log into the Social Security website today using Chrome. When I go to The United States Social Security Administration | SSA and click on "Sign in" I get this: Anyone else experiencing problems?I use Chrome, but I tried Firefox and it worked fine. Chrome is often an early adopter of newly introduced security options, so I wonder if that is a factor. The change would have had to happen on the Social Security side, because I haven't updated Chrome in a while. I update infrequently because although the restart reopens all the tabs, the Chrome windows don't reopen on the correct desktops, and I have to relogin to many websites.--Percy

I asked ChatGPT for a list of Trump's most used phrases:

1. "Like nobody’s ever seen before" – Used to emphasize the uniqueness or scale of something.
2. "Believe me" – A common phrase for reinforcing his point.
3. "Many people are saying" – A vague appeal to popular opinion.
4. "Fake news" – Used to discredit media coverage he disagrees with.
5. "Radical left" / "Radical rogue judges" – Labeling opponents as extreme.
6. "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) – His signature campaign slogan.
7. "America First" – A nationalist slogan used in trade and foreign policy.
8. "Crooked [opponent’s name]" – A common attack strategy (e.g., "Crooked Hillary").
9. "Witch hunt" – Used to describe investigations against him.
10. "Rigged system" – A claim that institutions are unfairly biased.
11. "Greatest economy in history" – A common claim about his presidency.
12. "Low-energy [opponent’s name]" – A way to brand rivals as weak (e.g., "Low-energy Jeb").
13. "Tremendous" – Often used for emphasis.
14. "Total disaster" – Used to describe policies or opponents.
15. "The likes of which we’ve never seen" – Another variation of the uniqueness claim.

--Percy