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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 4001
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 1126 of 1138 (918606)
05-15-2024 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 1125 by Percy
05-15-2024 9:39 AM


Percy writes:
If right out of gate the sanctions were placed on somewhere north of 90% of trade then sanctions might have had a prayer of having an impact, but countries like the U.S. don't do sanctions that way. They do them gradually, giving the target country plenty of time to adapt and find alternatives.
Analogous critiques were made of U.S. military doctrine in the wake of the Vietnamese fiasco.
The 'tighten the screws' incremental approach led to years of increased U.S. combat forces on the ground; targeted bombing eventually ginned up to carpet bombing, and then the moral and environmental horrors of napalm and Agent Orange. By the time U.S. military strikes peaked, the tunnels were deep, and the targets (and the population) were hardened by years of war.
Thus we saw the "shock and awe" approach to Iraq, et al.
I should note that, if memory serves, our current sanctions on Russia are calculated to especially impact the power elite in Russia, relying on the corrolary notion that attempts to shift the burden to the Russian masses would make them restive.
I'm skeptical about both the precision of the targeting and the likelihood of a restive-under-Putin Russian people.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1125 by Percy, posted 05-15-2024 9:39 AM Percy has not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 1127 of 1138 (918612)
05-15-2024 4:57 PM
Reply to: Message 1125 by Percy
05-15-2024 9:39 AM


Percy writes:
I think there was an expectation on the part of most people that the sanctions we imposed on Russia almost two years ago would cover everything, or at least nearly everything. While I couldn't find the facts to back me up, my belief is that the initial set of sanctions covered less than 10% of our trade with Russia. I bet we still haven't reached the 50% level of sanctions on our trade with Russia.
I'm of two minds on it. Some of it is political posturing, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. If the US had done nothing, that would have looked like a green light in Moscow.
There is also the effect of US companies leaving Russia. This is especially true for the oil sector which relied heavily on major oil companies for production (e.g. Exxon, Shell, BP). Those companies left within days of the invasion because they wanted nothing to do with sanctions, and nothing to do with the image of working with Russia. Russia may not be able to keep those oil fields running in the long term without those western oil companies.
The Treasury Department says it has prohibited 80% of U.S. dealings with the Russian banking sector, but how many other sectors are there that weren't covered or were only partially covered.? Obviously there's the uranium sector, since that was only just added to the list. Any other metals or minerals or raw materials not on the sanctions list? Manufactured goods? Services? Software (Russian software engineers are incredibly cheap - while I was still working they were a commonly used resource).

If right out of gate the sanctions were placed on somewhere north of 90% of trade then sanctions might have had a prayer of having an impact, but countries like the U.S. don't do sanctions that way. They do them gradually, giving the target country plenty of time to adapt and find alternatives.
If I understand the global markets correctly, Russia is a major supplier of some very important commodities other than oil. If memory serves, they are big in the platinum metal series and in fertilizers, to name a couple. It's as much about the rest of the world needing time to find alternatives as it is Russia.
I will give Germany a lot of kudos for taking one for the team. They took a shot to the balls when they cut off Russian oil and especially natural gas.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1125 by Percy, posted 05-15-2024 9:39 AM Percy has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22607
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 1128 of 1138 (918837)
05-31-2024 7:21 AM


Because of recent developments (e.g., Biden gives Ukraine permission to carry out limited strikes within Russia using US weapons), I thought I'd list some things Russia has been permitted to do that Ukraine has not:
  1. Target sites in the other country
  2. Invade the other country
  3. Safely mass troops and supplies at the border
  4. Fly modern weaponry
  5. Employ the military of foreign allies
If our goal has been for Ukraine to lose as slowly as possible then I guess we're doing a bang up job. Ukraine is essential for western security, and our support should have recognized that reality from the beginning.
Oh, and about sanctions again. There was an opinion piece somewhere recently saying we should again increase sanctions on Russia. Incredibly, after two years there are still more things not sanctioned than are. Declaring sanctions is for the idiotic sector of the public who still doesn't understand that sanctions don't work (ask Cuba) and are merely symbolic.
Using a sports analogy, my coaches always told us to attack weaknesses relentlessly right out of the gate. Make the other guy or team experience futility as early and often as possible. Only in this way can you minimize your losses to lesser players or teams (there are no guarantees that the better team wins). We should have demonstrated our resolve right at the beginning by using western power directly on Russia and enough of this nonsense of "But they have the nuclear option."
I know it's been said many times in this thread, but we're following right in Chamberlain's footsteps.
Ukraine *is* going to lose this war. That outcome is baked into how we're handling things. It's just a matter of when.
--Percy

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 1129 of 1138 (918847)
06-04-2024 2:47 PM


Europe In Backlash
Hey Europe guys, I’m hearing a sharp increase in emotion on immigration issues over there. I’m hearing/reading a pronounced increase in anti-Islam sentiments especially. Over here we are told of major crime/rape/murder sprees all throughout Europe by Islamist militants out to convert all of Europe to the peaceful ways of Islam. We are shown how all of European society is being rent by this issue and that a major backlash is brewing in the right wings of your society.
Is this as “in your face” impacting your local personal social order or is this the hype of the neo-right trying to find voice? Are you guys really forming up into gangs ready to go out and burn down mosques?

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

Replies to this message:
 Message 1130 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-04-2024 3:09 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 1135 by Tangle, posted 06-05-2024 3:26 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4501
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 1130 of 1138 (918848)
06-04-2024 3:09 PM
Reply to: Message 1129 by AZPaul3
06-04-2024 2:47 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
Are you guys really forming up into gangs ready to go out and burn down mosques?
We need some of that over here for the churches and synagogues too!
Pay taxes or face the flame!

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3
If you are going to argue that evolution is false because it resembles your own beliefs then perhaps you should rethink your argument. - - Taq

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1129 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 2:47 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1131 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 3:34 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 1131 of 1138 (918851)
06-04-2024 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 1130 by Tanypteryx
06-04-2024 3:09 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
I would love to see a law where churches are heavily taxed and when they cannot pay their building is turned over to the fire department to be used in a controlled live-fire exercise. Then sell the burned-out property to a porn shop. I like that.

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1130 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-04-2024 3:09 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1132 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-04-2024 3:39 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4501
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 1132 of 1138 (918852)
06-04-2024 3:39 PM
Reply to: Message 1131 by AZPaul3
06-04-2024 3:34 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
Then sell the burned-out property to a porn shop.
Well, the porn shops are doing ok on their own. I would rather see free clinics and homeless shelters.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3
If you are going to argue that evolution is false because it resembles your own beliefs then perhaps you should rethink your argument. - - Taq

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1131 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 3:34 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1133 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 4:33 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 1133 of 1138 (918853)
06-04-2024 4:33 PM
Reply to: Message 1132 by Tanypteryx
06-04-2024 3:39 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
Well, OK, if you want to be all woke about it. But, at least one QuikTrip that sells Penthouse.

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1132 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-04-2024 3:39 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1134 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-04-2024 4:45 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4501
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 1134 of 1138 (918854)
06-04-2024 4:45 PM
Reply to: Message 1133 by AZPaul3
06-04-2024 4:33 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
Hell, the free clinics and shelters can give Penthouse way free! Is Penthouse still in print?>>>googling...I guess it's still around in some form. I remember Penthouse Letters took on a persona of its own as a popular erotic story feature.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3
If you are going to argue that evolution is false because it resembles your own beliefs then perhaps you should rethink your argument. - - Taq

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1133 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 4:33 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9531
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 1135 of 1138 (918855)
06-05-2024 3:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1129 by AZPaul3
06-04-2024 2:47 PM


Re: Europe In Backlash
AZP writes:
Is this as “in your face” impacting your local personal social order or is this the hype of the neo-right trying to find voice? Are you guys really forming up into gangs ready to go out and burn down mosques?
First I’ve heard of it. Am I missing all the fun?
btw, I’m on an American ship cruising the Baltic and so I've been exposed to your TV ‘news’ channels. Wow, that’s poisonous, malign and disturbing stuff. Goebbels would have been proud of it.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1129 by AZPaul3, posted 06-04-2024 2:47 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1136 by AZPaul3, posted 06-05-2024 5:02 AM Tangle has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 1136 of 1138 (918856)
06-05-2024 5:02 AM
Reply to: Message 1135 by Tangle
06-05-2024 3:26 AM


Re: Europe In Backlash
So, you're not being chased around deck by a knife wielding Imam? This is good.
My perception, and it may be only that, is the sharp increase in caustic rhetoric above the usual background noise. Heavy anti-Islam, especially in memes and blogs out of Germany and France. If there is no fire then why are we seeing all this smoke? What is going on? More than a few additional instances of the usual violent humanity? Disinformation because of the election? Errant perceptions?
If you recall, what channels were available and which struck you as poisonous, etc.?

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1135 by Tangle, posted 06-05-2024 3:26 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1137 by Tangle, posted 06-05-2024 9:25 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9531
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 1137 of 1138 (918858)
06-05-2024 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 1136 by AZPaul3
06-05-2024 5:02 AM


Re: Europe In Backlash
AZP writes:
So, you're not being chased around deck by a knife wielding Imam?
I’m sure I would have noticed.
My perception, and it may be only that, is the sharp increase in caustic rhetoric above the usual background noise. Heavy anti-Islam, especially in memes and blogs out of Germany and France. If there is no fire then why are we seeing all this smoke? What is going on? More than a few additional instances of the usual violent humanity? Disinformation because of the election? Errant perceptions?
Nope, can’t help, nothing out of the ordinary is happening apart from some Palestinian protests but that’s pretty healthy.
If you recall, what channels were available and which struck you as poisonous, etc.?
Fox ‘News’ is the most obviously vile one - wall-to-wall Trump disinformation. (It was the week of his trial.)

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1136 by AZPaul3, posted 06-05-2024 5:02 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1138 by AZPaul3, posted 06-05-2024 10:38 AM Tangle has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 1138 of 1138 (918859)
06-05-2024 10:38 AM
Reply to: Message 1137 by Tangle
06-05-2024 9:25 AM


Re: Europe In Backlash
Good to hear. If you guys inside are not saying the house is on fire then the smoke is just that. With some mirrors we have the usual right-wing bullshit.
Thank you, Tangle.

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1137 by Tangle, posted 06-05-2024 9:25 AM Tangle has not replied

  
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