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Author Topic:   Testing The Financial Apologists
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 520 of 582 (918453)
05-03-2024 2:26 PM
Reply to: Message 516 by Taq
05-03-2024 11:02 AM


The Name Is Bond.
Point taken. You have a valid argument for historical purposes. I would pay close attention to the bond market in the future, however. (Not going to claim that I know either)
Listen I cannot claim that I am right and you are wrong, but I sense a disturbance in the force. I will keep trying to provide better sources to make my case.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 516 by Taq, posted 05-03-2024 11:02 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 523 by Taq, posted 05-03-2024 3:39 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 524 of 582 (918466)
05-04-2024 7:48 AM
Reply to: Message 517 by Theodoric
05-03-2024 11:41 AM


Hard Assets vs ETFs. (Paper Gold and Silver)
Theo writes:
A 5% holding of anything is not going to do much of anything. Do you understand percentages at all?
Do you have any concept the fees in holding precious metals?
Yes I understand the fees of owning a safe deposit box. Apart from burying it in the ground or buying a safe, there are no other solutions to safely store it.
I continue to study the markets and the global game that is being played. My argument is that it is the United States who is being played and while the financial media here hypes up stocks and bitcoin, the real bedrock is still gold and commodities. The nations of the world not in alliance with the West are slowly starting to understand this.
My basic argument is that the East (Shanghai Commodity exchange) is the ones who short the prices and then take delivery on the hard assets themselves rather than fiddling around with ETFs. This is smart. I have seen data on the dramatic increase in buying from the East.
AddbyEdit:
Business Insider
The debt is increasing and is approaching unsustainability. Though China still willing buys and holds our debt, I feel that it is only because their national interests depend to a large degree on our fiscal health. They are playing the long game, however.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 517 by Theodoric, posted 05-03-2024 11:41 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 527 by Theodoric, posted 05-04-2024 9:35 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 525 of 582 (918467)
05-04-2024 7:58 AM
Reply to: Message 523 by Taq
05-03-2024 3:39 PM


Re: The Name Is Bond.
Taq writes:
US bonds are also very popular abroad because they are never defaulted on. However, the Republicans do like to flirt with having the government default on its debt which has stressed the markets in recent history.
This is a bigger game than simply Democrat vs Republican. This is China vs the US. Look at the data of how much gold is being bought (in physical form, mind you) and moved from the Comex to Shanghai. It used to be London and the Comex calling the shots. Now, the East is in the drivers seat.
Years ago I learned that the US credit markets would someday be in checkmate. They could not raise rates too high without increasing debt exponentially. Yet if they lowered rates too far, real interest would be negative (after inflation). Of course everyone here hangs on every word from the FED and Powell and Yellin. The fact is, they have already lost and they know it. The American Public just don't know it yet.
You have shown me a lot of statistics from the past regarding the global influence of the US Dollar. Keep watching those figures and you will eventually see the change that is occurring.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 523 by Taq, posted 05-03-2024 3:39 PM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 528 by Theodoric, posted 05-04-2024 9:36 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 526 of 582 (918468)
05-04-2024 8:18 AM
Reply to: Message 522 by Taq
05-03-2024 3:36 PM


Re: Moderator On Duty Soon
Taq writes:
So why are you all riled up about something that happened in 1933? How is that going to cause the US dollar to collapse now, in 2024? Why hasn't that collapse already happened in the intervening 91 years?
Times are very different now. I am riled up that the US government actually confiscated both gold and silver from the public. The price was stable, set at $20.00 an ounce. Of course, we were on the gold standard back then. After the government confiscation, FDR himself increased the price to $35.00 an ounce. The difference these days is that Gold is now an international commodity that has a market apart from the fiat currencies. Indirectly, Gold still sets the price/value of these currencies and has been reclassified as a Tier One Asset. Gold is not simply some rock that has value in relation to currencies. Currencies have value in relation to gold.
If any of you disagree, look at the statistics regarding Central Banks globally reversing their earlier behavior and becoming net buyers of gold.
Geographical Diversity For many years since 1971, the US dollar served as a paper ETF and spread value throughout the world.
Gold was, in the words of Keynes, a "barbarous relic". I have a lot more studying to do in order to defend my topic. One thing that I want to study is Keynesian economics, modern monetary theory, and the philosophy guiding the East in regards to assets and value.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 522 by Taq, posted 05-03-2024 3:36 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 529 by Theodoric, posted 05-04-2024 10:49 PM Phat has replied
 Message 540 by Taq, posted 05-06-2024 11:01 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 530 of 582 (918477)
05-05-2024 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 529 by Theodoric
05-04-2024 10:49 PM


Re: Moderator On Duty Soon
You and I must have been meant to disagree. I'm not going to try and teach you since I resent you trying to teach me as well. I will let Gods intuition teach me all I need to know and pray that you and your wife are successful and comfortable in your retirement years. That is all I ask from you.
I also realize that I have failed to answer many of your questions, but if you ask some specific ones again (here) I will try and get to them. Keep in mind that none of us have a crystal ball, including relevant experts with actual degrees.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 529 by Theodoric, posted 05-04-2024 10:49 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 532 by Theodoric, posted 05-05-2024 12:05 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 531 of 582 (918478)
05-05-2024 11:53 AM
Reply to: Message 529 by Theodoric
05-04-2024 10:49 PM


Re: Moderator On Duty Soon
Theo writes:
Nothing in economics or finance is based off the value of gold.
So you are telling me that the "value" of fiat currencies is based only on the trust of the people?
It is a commodity that can be manipulated.Central banks buy it because it has value and it's stability.
The ones doing the "manipulating" now are foreign more than domestic. Other nations realize that they cannot defeat the United States militarily but they believe that they can destabilize us financially. Pay attention in the coming months.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 529 by Theodoric, posted 05-04-2024 10:49 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 533 by Theodoric, posted 05-05-2024 12:10 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 534 of 582 (918483)
05-05-2024 12:12 PM
Reply to: Message 532 by Theodoric
05-05-2024 12:05 PM


Re: Moderator On Duty Soon
Theo writes:
As you have decided to just spout bullshit, how about you crawl under your rock for a while.
When trust is lost, fiat money will need a "rock" to crawl under. Digital assets are as worthless as paper.
Theo writes:
Economics and finance is not a gut feeling.
You admit that gold provides stability for Central Banks. What provides stability for the currency in circulation?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 532 by Theodoric, posted 05-05-2024 12:05 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 539 by Taq, posted 05-06-2024 10:58 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 536 of 582 (918485)
05-05-2024 12:46 PM
Reply to: Message 535 by Admin
05-05-2024 12:45 PM


Re: Moderator On Duty
Its your loss..not mine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 535 by Admin, posted 05-05-2024 12:45 PM Admin has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
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Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 541 of 582 (918529)
05-07-2024 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 539 by Taq
05-06-2024 10:58 AM


African Nations Repatrioting Gold Out Of US
This article caught my attention:
African and Middle Eastern Nations Withdraw Gold Reserves Amid American Economic Concerns
The article is from the Houston Post. (04/24/2024)
It supports my belief that the United States is in an economic war with a growing percentage of the world.
Houston Post:
In a move reflecting growing concerns over the stability of the American economy, several African and Middle Eastern nations have begun withdrawing their gold reserves from the United States in recent months. This trend marks a significant shift in global economic dynamics and underscores the increasing skepticism among nations regarding the traditional safe haven status of the US dollar and American financial institutions.(...)Their actions are prompting questions about the future of the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency.(...)Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, decided to repatriate gold reserves held in the United States earlier this year. The move was met with domestic support, with Nigerian officials citing concerns about the long-term stability of the US economy and the need to diversify risk exposure. (...)In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s decision to withdraw its gold reserves from the United States sent shockwaves through global markets. As one of the world’s largest oil exporters and a linchpin of the global economy, Saudi Arabia’s actions underscore the growing disillusionment with the American financial system.
It is irrelevant whether or not Gold actually affects an economy. Perception is everything. The article concludes:
quote:
As these nations assert greater control over their financial assets, the balance of power in the global economy is poised to undergo significant recalibration, with far-reaching implications for the future of international finance.
I will stick to my guns regarding these arguments. As I am now limited to one post a day, reflective of the prejudice against my intelligence, I aim to make the one post count. Sometimes I feel as if I am wasting my time trying to convince a group of stubborn (and arrogant) old men that they are wrong.
Gold Reserves by Country, Metric Tons
Taq writes:
I would highly suggest you read the whole article.
I did read your article, Taq and I appreciate your input. I am learning from your sources as well and am refining my viewpoint.
The next notable event to pay attention to will be a conference on May 14th in Moscow.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 539 by Taq, posted 05-06-2024 10:58 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 544 by Admin, posted 05-07-2024 3:46 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 547 by Taq, posted 05-07-2024 4:51 PM Phat has replied
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Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 553 of 582 (918577)
05-10-2024 3:07 PM
Reply to: Message 547 by Taq
05-07-2024 4:51 PM


The Issue Between Us Is Political
I'm convinced that the issue between the peanut gallery and myself regarding the role of the US Dollar in international trade, the value and purpose of Gold and other precious metal commodities, and the narrative of so called "experts" and other interests is in fact political. I say this now because I have observed that most of the people whom I trust who teach this stuff, while not "official government economists" are in fact three things.
  • Wealthy. They do not need YouTube video clicks to give themselves an income.
  • Libertarian or Conservative. They would agree with Ron Paul.
  • Largely in agreement with others who think like them.
    I found several sources which were not YouTube nor videos, though I cannot understand why nobody likes videos. Not every video is by a guy like Peter Schiff, who Percy sees as a rube because his father was one or because he sells gold. I am in agreement with Percy that any information from a precious metals firm can be labeled as "tentative" although I do not believe that it is a lie simply because a precious metals firm (or a conservative or a libertarian) reports and spreads such information.
    The written sources which I will quote from include
  • Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin and a widely read social commentator on world affairs.
  • Jay Martin
  • Jim Rickards
  • George Gammon (I mentioned him before)
  • Silver Institute
  • CNBC
    Other news media outlets who publish stories which catch my attention.
    I will also expose Jared Bernstein, one of Bidens office of economic affairs appointees and attempt to make a case not necessarily against Biden but against the "official government sources" which I honestly feel are at worst misleading and at best soothing the fears of the public for national interests.
    I must get ready for work now, though I will compile my next post late tonight after work.

  • This message is a reply to:
     Message 547 by Taq, posted 05-07-2024 4:51 PM Taq has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 554 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 5:29 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 555 by Theodoric, posted 05-10-2024 10:16 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 556 by nwr, posted 05-10-2024 11:48 PM Phat has replied
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    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18388
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003


    Message 558 of 582 (918607)
    05-15-2024 11:55 AM
    Reply to: Message 556 by nwr
    05-10-2024 11:48 PM


    Re: The Issue Between Us Is Political
    Percy writes:
    I think you're ill and that responding to you is mostly pointless because you're unable to absorb or correctly interpret much that is said, as is already readily apparent in many of your messages...
    I was at the Doctor yesterday and my A1C is 7.8. Why you always assume I am insane is because I am exposing the fragility of the US global financial position.
    This scares you to death (as it would anyone) and the fact is that much of this country is in denial. You won't hear any truth in an election year but you will see the other party blamed for the problem after the elections. (whichever party wins! )

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 556 by nwr, posted 05-10-2024 11:48 PM nwr has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 559 by Theodoric, posted 05-15-2024 12:24 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 560 by Taq, posted 05-15-2024 3:20 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 561 by Admin, posted 05-15-2024 3:24 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 562 by nwr, posted 05-15-2024 6:55 PM Phat has not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18388
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003


    Message 564 of 582 (919000)
    06-12-2024 5:33 PM
    Reply to: Message 21 by jar
    10-06-2021 2:47 PM


    Thinking In Todays Dimension..
    First of all, welcome back. IIRC, we were discussing inflation and the future of the US economy.
    This is from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. /Pandemic savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers?
    The latest estimates of overall pandemic excess savings remaining in the U.S. economy have turned negative, suggesting that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024. However, consumer spending has remained strong in recent months, which raises an important question: What’s next?
    Anyone with a basic knowledge of math may conclude that we are in way over our heads. The Debt is over 34 trillion. Throw in future obligations and the debt total is over 100 trillion dollars. My basic argument is that a reset is inevitable once the average consumer loses faith in the US system.
    jar writes:
    Phat, I was an optician and I made $400 a month salary.

    Gas was about a quarter a gallon.

    My rent was $90.00 a month and that included all utilities.

    Stop thinking in terms of one dimension.

    Minimum wage was about a dollar an hour.

    Yes inflation happens but so does wage increases.
    The US blew it when we started weaponizing the global reserve currency and sanctioning a nation as large and powerful as Russia. The West is largely debt based economies. The East is increasingly positioning as resource based economies. Ukraine will never win that war.
    Though we promised 200 billion in aid for them, (without congressional approval) all that is happening is a move supporting Eisenhowers old nemesis...the Military Industrial Complex. Our debt, currently 34.7 trillion dollars, is well over 120% GDP. We have largely lost petrodollar status due to some dimwit announcing that we will go green. China has picked up on that dropped opportunity and ha basicaly been promised a PetroYuan.
    China is no longer buying US treasuries and has switched to Gold as a medium of exchange between BRICS nations. The Dollars hegemony is coming to an end.
    So say that you were an optician in 2024. You make $4000.00 a month.
    Your rent is $1500.00 a month or more.
    Gas is $4.00 a gallon.
    Inflation is far higher than it was when you made $400.00 a month.
    Janet Yellin recently threatened to sanction Beijing if they supported Russia.
    WE as a nation are arrogant and financially clueless.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 21 by jar, posted 10-06-2021 2:47 PM jar has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 565 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 7:38 PM Phat has replied
     Message 574 by Taq, posted 06-13-2024 11:23 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 580 by Theodoric, posted 06-13-2024 4:51 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18388
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003


    Message 566 of 582 (919002)
    06-12-2024 7:45 PM
    Reply to: Message 565 by jar
    06-12-2024 7:38 PM


    Re: Thinking In Todays Dimension..
    So Texas is cheaper than average. You still have not refuted my basic premises.
  • The world is beginning to dedollarize.
  • The debt is over 120% GDP
    and for good measure...
  • ! Trillion every 90-100 days is added to the debt.
    Yes, Texas is cheap to live in but the US is in trouble.
    Blame the imbiciles who embrace Modern Monetary Theory. They cant add.

  • This message is a reply to:
     Message 565 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 7:38 PM jar has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 567 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 7:50 PM Phat has replied
     Message 570 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 9:37 PM Phat has replied
     Message 575 by Taq, posted 06-13-2024 11:30 AM Phat has not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18388
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003


    Message 568 of 582 (919004)
    06-12-2024 7:52 PM
    Reply to: Message 567 by jar
    06-12-2024 7:50 PM


    Re: Thinking In Todays Dimension..
    So we are still the better of equals. Not for long, however.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 567 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 7:50 PM jar has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 569 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 7:59 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18388
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003


    Message 571 of 582 (919007)
    06-12-2024 11:33 PM
    Reply to: Message 570 by jar
    06-12-2024 9:37 PM


    Re: time to present your reasoning?
    What is the benefit of being the world reserve currency?
    Hirt: Having a dominant global currency provides ample demand for our debt instruments, which benefits U.S. companies and consumers through liquidity and stability of their currency. It further allows them to theoretically borrow at rates lower than what's available in the rest of the world. (Also...)
    How does the US benefit from the dollar being the reserve currency?
    Trust in and demand for the dollar also allows US borrowers to pay relatively low interest for home mortgages, auto loans and corporate debt. All of this helps to reinforce the very economic and financial dominance that made the dollar No. 1 in the first place.
    In other words we will pay more while our competitors will then have the advantages. Less money at home means less ability to provide for any common good.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 570 by jar, posted 06-12-2024 9:37 PM jar has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 572 by jar, posted 06-13-2024 8:34 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
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     Message 581 by Theodoric, posted 06-13-2024 4:53 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
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