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Author Topic:   Who Owns the Standard Definition of Evolution
Taq
Member
Posts: 10195
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 181 of 698 (915101)
02-09-2024 8:11 PM
Reply to: Message 178 by sensei
02-09-2024 8:05 PM


sensei writes:
I rest my case. You are hopeless.
Read the following:
quote:
Fisher's exact test is a statistical significance test used in the analysis of contingency tables.[1][2][3] Although in practice it is employed when sample sizes are small, it is valid for all sample sizes. It is named after its inventor, Ronald Fisher, and is one of a class of exact tests, so called because the significance of the deviation from a null hypothesis (e.g., p-value) can be calculated exactly, rather than relying on an approximation that becomes exact in the limit as the sample size grows to infinity, as with many statistical tests.
Fisher - Wikipedia
And:
Lady tasting tea - Wikipedia
It is a statistical test for determining if a woman can determine in a blind taste test whether the tea was added to the cream or the cream was added to the tea. It is the same as predicting the flip of a coin, and the statistical tests are laid out exactly as I described.
Added in edit:
Probably should also add the link for calculating the p value for congruences between independent trees:
29+ Evidences for Macroevolution: Statistics of Incongruent Phylogenetic Trees
Should have all of the calculations/formulas you need.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 178 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 8:05 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 186 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:39 PM Taq has not replied
 Message 198 by Tangle, posted 02-10-2024 2:48 AM Taq has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8613
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 182 of 698 (915103)
02-09-2024 8:32 PM
Reply to: Message 145 by sensei
02-09-2024 6:46 PM


Go somewhere else if you want to debate or talk religion, you dumb fool!
You being here trying to defeat evolution is motivated by your religion. You are a religious actor. I'm in the right spot.
Wow! That projection problem of yours really is severe.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 145 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 6:46 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 188 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:44 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22694
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 183 of 698 (915104)
02-09-2024 8:45 PM
Reply to: Message 107 by K.Rose
02-09-2024 12:10 PM


K.Rose in Message 107 writes:
I’ll accept that Evolutionism includes a broad category of studies, but there are a couple of essential components in in the Evolutionary process that go beyond mere natural selection and variance within like lifeforms. The notion of a random, non-directed, continuing common ancestry for all life forms is the most critical of these, critical in that it is the prerequisite for refuting Biblical Creation.
This is the first time you've mentioned a religious motivation. No one here is trying to refute Biblical creation. Creationism only receives attention from scientists in response to efforts to teach it as accepted science in public schools.
What you're calling "random, non-directed, continuing common ancestry" does not "go beyond" descent with modification combined with natural selection. Descent with modification already means random, non-directed mutations. Common ancestry is a necessary implication of the process.
My effort here is to understand the evidence showing that this is possible. How does one life form evolve into another?
Gradually, one generation at a time.
What is the mechanism?
Descent with modification combined with natural selection.
Can or has it been observed? Can it be reproduced in the laboratory?
Has the origin of a new species been observed? Maybe at the single-celled level where generations are short. There are some claims of speciation being observed in real time at much higher classification levels, but I'm not convinced.
But we'll never observe the origin of a new species of fish, amphibian, reptile, bird or mammal because each generation takes too long. For example, the changes in Eohippus ("dawn horse") that gradually became Orohippus ("mountain horse") probably took a couple million years. Each Eohippus/Orohippus birth included a number of mutations, and with many births every year there would be millions and millions of mutations over a couple millions years. Each Eohippus/Orohippus would live out its life in its environment and be selected or not to contribute its genes to the next generation, i.e., its mutations would either be passed on or not. It would not be possible to duplicate such a lengthy process in the laboratory. Especially it wouldn't be possible to accelerate the mutation rate.
We could of course exert strong selection pressures in the lab, but your own example of the dog shows that strong selection pressures do not produce speciation. Domestically bred pigeons are another example of huge variation within a single species.
There's another more subtle reason why it would be difficult to observe speciation, and that's that speciation is a very gradual process. One way that speciation is thought to happen is when a species population becomes divided into two separate populations, for example by a river changing course. The separate populations evolve independently and only gradually become less and less capable of interbreeding.
This means that there is no exact point where the two populations become two different species. There's a point where interbreeding is 90% successful, then 80%, then 70%, and so on until finally they'll incapable of interbreeding at all. At what point do they become two different species? At 50%? 20% 0%?
Examples are helpful in considering this question. Even though the lion and the tiger are two different species, a male lion can mate with a female tiger to create a liger. A male donkey and a female horse can mate to create a mule. Species are not hard boundaries but a continuum. Some species are closely related and can interbreed to some extent, others are less closely related and can interbreed less successfully, and distantly related species cannot interbreed at all.
DNA can provide us a measure of relatedness. Chimp and human share 98.8% of their DNA and yet cannot interbreed at all.
Note that Scientific Fact has a pretty high Certainty bar: Zero Error, 100% Probability, 100% Confidence.
One widely held viewpoint is that everything in science is tentative, including facts. Stephen Jay Gould (paleontologist and evolutionary biologist at Harvard) had this to say about facts:
Stephen Jay Gould:
In science, 'fact' can only mean 'confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.' I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms.
These days the Great Deceit of many scientific theories lies in their presentation to the public as implied fact, and in allowing the misconception of factuality to stand.
"The Great Deceit of many scientific theories?" Now you sound anti-science. This isn't really the topic, but which theories do you think science has been deceitful about?
If Evolutionism can meet the high bar of Scientific Fact, then it should be presented as such. If not, then the Certainty of Evolutionary conclusions must be divulged front and center.
Evolutionism? Is that analogous to religionism?
The theory of evolution is a theory, not a fact, but it *is* a fact that one little step of evolution takes place with nearly every reproductive event.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by K.Rose, posted 02-09-2024 12:10 PM K.Rose has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 211 by K.Rose, posted 02-10-2024 8:33 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22694
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.8


(3)
Message 184 of 698 (915105)
02-09-2024 9:04 PM
Reply to: Message 108 by K.Rose
02-09-2024 12:25 PM


K.Rose writes:
I have had some thoughtful responses, some a bit impatient, and a great many disdainful. To paraphrase a few: "you don't know what you're talking about", "your questions are nonsensical", "go take a class", "...usual lying", "go away".
But you waited until the thread had over a hundred messages before mentioning your religious motivation. You caused the treatment you're complaining about by being less than forthright, something that many picked up on right from the beginning. The "oh, I've looked for the evidence and it just isn't there" crap was just an act.
The defensiveness and reluctance to engage are quite telling. When you're over the target you'll take a lot of flak.
Being less than honest can cause that, too.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 108 by K.Rose, posted 02-09-2024 12:25 PM K.Rose has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 185 of 698 (915106)
02-09-2024 9:37 PM
Reply to: Message 179 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 8:06 PM


quote:
The chances of you correctly predicting 10 consecutive flips of the coin is 2^10, or 1 in 1024. If this is incorrect, show us you can do the math.
That was never the question. Geeze, you lack braincells as well.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 179 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 8:06 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 186 of 698 (915107)
02-09-2024 9:39 PM
Reply to: Message 181 by Taq
02-09-2024 8:11 PM


quote:
Read the following
Really, you are hopeless.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:11 PM Taq has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 187 of 698 (915108)
02-09-2024 9:41 PM
Reply to: Message 185 by sensei
02-09-2024 9:37 PM


Yet you still can't do the math, can you? And apparently you can't read either.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3

This message is a reply to:
 Message 185 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:37 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 189 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:48 PM Tanypteryx has not replied
 Message 190 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:56 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 188 of 698 (915109)
02-09-2024 9:44 PM
Reply to: Message 182 by AZPaul3
02-09-2024 8:32 PM


quote:
You being here trying to defeat evolution is motivated by your religion. You are a religious actor. I'm in the right spot.
If you gonna respond to everything with some variation of saying b b but religion is dumb, then f.o.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 182 by AZPaul3, posted 02-09-2024 8:32 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 189 of 698 (915110)
02-09-2024 9:48 PM
Reply to: Message 187 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 9:41 PM


I already did the math saying that the probability is less than 0.1%. Then I followed it up with a simple, straight forward question. But you managed to fail to understand it even. Like three times I asked, in different wording. Those who still not get it, better leave the talking to others. You are embarrassing to the human intellect.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 190 of 698 (915111)
02-09-2024 9:56 PM
Reply to: Message 187 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 9:41 PM


quote:
Yet you still can't do the math, can you? And apparently you can't read either.
A person fell down the stairs. What is the probability that this person is female?
People like Taq and Tany respond like: the probability of a person falling down the stairs is very low. What? That was not the question? You cannot read!
This is the level of stupid that I have to deal with day in day out on this board. Even from those who say they are working in the field of science.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 191 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 10:22 PM sensei has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Inactive Member


Message 191 of 698 (915112)
02-09-2024 10:22 PM
Reply to: Message 190 by sensei
02-09-2024 9:56 PM


10 people fell down the stairs. The probability of accurately predicting the gender of all 10 victims is 1 in 1024. The probability of predicting the gender of one victim is 1 in 2.
sensei in Message 190 writes:
This is the level of stupid that I have to deal with day in day out on this board.
There's a simple solution to that.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3

This message is a reply to:
 Message 190 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 9:56 PM sensei has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8613
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 192 of 698 (915113)
02-09-2024 10:44 PM


Hey, guys. With all these people falling down the stairs has anyone looked to see what the hell is wrong with those steps? Is there a priest in there somewhere screwing with the risers trying to get jesus to appear on the landing?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9361
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 193 of 698 (915115)
02-09-2024 10:52 PM
Reply to: Message 133 by sensei
02-09-2024 6:09 PM


science does not prove. It organizes and explains the evidence. It eliminates competing explanations.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 133 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 6:09 PM sensei has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9361
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 194 of 698 (915116)
02-09-2024 10:53 PM
Reply to: Message 138 by sensei
02-09-2024 6:33 PM


Oh personal attacks. Aren't you special.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by sensei, posted 02-09-2024 6:33 PM sensei has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9361
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 195 of 698 (915117)
02-09-2024 10:57 PM
Reply to: Message 143 by K.Rose
02-09-2024 6:40 PM


What church are you a pastor at? What is your denomination?

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 143 by K.Rose, posted 02-09-2024 6:40 PM K.Rose has not replied

  
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