The War in Europe

For adults the message isn't about physicality. He explains very clearly on page 5 that "Don't hit people" is the version of the message a six-year old understands, but then he goes on use the adult example of "environmental pollution and destruction" and how it hurts people.If you're purposefully pushing people's buttons, especially just because you're bored, not provoked, then you're hurting people for no reason. Fulghum said, "Play fair," "Don't hit people," and "Say you're sorry when you hurt somebody." Good rules to go by.He also said, "Clean up your own mess." Better get started.--Percy

But Phat does not understand his mess that he has to clean up.

What mess?

Tomorrow Finland will become the 31st member of NATO. Took longer than I anticipated but they say that it's not much over a year - therefore lightning fast as these things go.Sweden still stuck by a Turkish objection, but expected to become member number 32 in a couple of months.I think I owe Percy something but can't be bothered to find out.

The general discription of the program:

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Ukraine 2 4 2 features interviews with experts, key people on the ground in Ukraine and many others affected, who can give direct and personal accounts of the unfolding of the war in Ukraine, how people of diverse backgrounds and professional skills rally in the fight for freedom and the historical context of Russia's invasion.

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Ukraine 242 PodcastTheir homepage: ukraine 24230 minutes per episode, for your optional listening.The most recent episode is: Why Invading Ukraine Makes Sense to Russia: Colonialism Vs Multilateral Cooperation - AS I TYPE THIS, NOT YET AVAILABLE AS PODCAST.

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In the wake of Finland's entry into NATO, a second conversation with Finnish political scientist Ryhor Nizhnikau. From the vantage point of Russia's direct neighbor, Nizhnikau is uniquely able to discuss Moscow's approach to international peace and security, and how these have led to their invasion of Ukraine. Nizhnikau discusses lessons learned by the smaller countries in their search for freedom and place in the world. According to him, Finland is seeking an alternative to power grabs and colonial behavior through multilateralism and law at institutions like the United Nations.

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Ryhor Nizhnikau is a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki, an independent research institute, funded by the Finnish Parliament. The institute includes around 50 researchers, who address Finnish foreign policy to advise the Finnish government, the European Union, and provide public information for debate. Ryhors areas of expertise are in the area of Russia foreign policy and countries in post-soviet Europe, and the European Union with issues and challenges for Finlands role in the EU. He also focuses on issues of global security, NATO and transatlantic cooperation.

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KTWH-LP, Two Harbors, MN broadcasts and webstreams this program at 9:30 pm (US central time) on Saturdays. KTWH 99.5 FM Two Harbors Community RadioMoose

Looks like Ukraine's 'spring offensive' has started. God knows what happens next.Just heard an ex US General say that "since the early 90s Russia has either crushed popular rebellion or changed the borders in Europe eight times, by force - it's got to stop. [...] this is where it can stop.I hope he's right.

I believe it was a bottle of 1796 Lenox Madeira.--Percy

Defend ‘every inch’ of NATO territory? New strategy is a work in progress. in today's Washington Post says a little bit about NATO's ability to fight off Russia:

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Before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, the multinational troops stationed in the Baltics and Poland were intended as a “tripwire” — a presence just large enough to signal that any aggression would be met with a collective response, and just capable enough to hope to slow down enemy forces until reinforcements arrived.
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Yet NATO hasn’t committed to the level of permanent on-the-ground troops that some nations wanted. And interviews with more than a dozen senior officials, as well as former officials and analysts, suggest that the overhaul still has a ways to go before the alliance could repel Russia without losing an inch of territory.

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“Being faster than the Russians to get to a critical place is the only metric that matters for effective deterrence, and we still can’t do that,” said retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe.

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It says that past concerns about "provoking Moscow with too large a presence have receded." Rendered moot might be more accurate.Lithuania, and I imagine the rest of the Baltic countries, remain concerned:

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Lithuanian officials counter that because of the country’s geography, Russia could cut it off quickly, with little time for reinforcements to arrive.

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A portion of the article was devoted to the possibility that Russia attacks NATO first. It wondered how much territory for how long would have to be ceded to Russia, and how well the logistics would work to get fighting forces where they were needed.--Percy

woh, some sort of coup in Russia. Where is this going?Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny' - BBC News

Yesterday it was reported that Prigozhin was blaming the Defence Minister for the invasion. BBCNotably he refrained from mentioning Putin.Looks like his differences with the military leadership - which have been going on for months - escalated. I think he was hoping that Putin would support him, purge the military leadership and get out of Ukraine. That didn’t happen.

Prigozhin appears to have taken three Russian cities and says he's heading for Moscow. He seems to have done it without actually fighting which means that the main Russian forces aren't resisting the mutiny - yet.Prigozhin so far hasn't said anything against Putin but instead is going after the military leadership. But Putin has just backed the military and is going after Prigozhin calling it betrayal and mutiny. So it's a civil war.Whatever happens next it's good news for the Ukrainians.

Putin didn’t mention any names. Maybe he’s hoping that Prigozhin will back down. Maybe he’s even hedging his bets. The MoD has confirmed that Wagner units are heading for Moscow.Given Prigozhin’s anti-war statements, it seems that even the worst outcome for Ukraine would see the Wagner mercenaries significantly weakened.

They're digging up the roads leading to Moscow An impressive panic considering there's only an estimated 500 troops in the convey heading for Moscow.

Prigozhin has agreed to stop the advance on Moscow - and the Wagner column has stopped. Lukashenko, the Belorussian President, brokered the deal, but it’s not clear what Prigozhin gets out of it. Or where things go from here.Is Prigozhin just buying time to move more troops up? It doesn’t look to me like there’s any basis for a deal that leaves him alive.

Latest report is that Prigozhin is going to Belarus, and that the Russian Ministry of Defence is offering jobs to Wagner fighters.I’ve also seen reports that Prigozhin’s enemies in the Russian military leadership are out, but the BBC hasn’t mentioned that, so I can’t be sure.Presumably Wagner will be disbanded - which is a plus. But Prigozhin may have signed his own death sentence, unless he has something up his sleeve. Putin is not the forgiving sort, and the Belarusian regime is dependent on Putin.