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Author Topic:   Coffee House Musing
AZPaul3
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Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(2)
Message 289 of 380 (895683)
07-10-2022 7:04 PM


JWST “First Light” Caution
Major hype over the JWST “First Light” release on Jul 12. Everyone is so excited. Too excited.
NASA media/PR handlers have created the impression we all will be mind-blown by this first release. The scientific community already knows what to expect and, indeed, they are already dancing with delight just from the hints coming from the JWST imaging team. This data release involves the deep spectrographics JWST was built for. This is first light, the JWST in all its power. This is the astronomers wet dream and that is what they are about to get.
But the public at large are in for an enormous let down. We’re going to get 5 +- pretty pictures of known structures already in the books but, as comparisons to Hubble, as sharp and as clear as your phone will let you see. That is all.
There is not going to be any great cosmic reveal of Universal secrets. I fear the overhype will sour JWSTs taste in the public mind. They are looking for $10 billion of something magical to happen and I fear the next few public data releases will not meet the hyped-up expectations. I keep trying to tell folks not to be so excited but the tube/toothpaste analogy rules here.
If you’re an astronomer then have the paper bag ready to breathe in to stop hyperventilating when you see just how detailed the raw data really is. Every photon this thing collects is detailed, photographed, mug shot with a laundry list of details like frequency, amplitude, momentum, polarity, social security number and mother’s maiden name. The big hints from NASA are that the spectrographic data will be well beyond expectations.
But for the rest of us, yes, we are about to see some really nice pretty pictures, but that’s it. Put down your pen. We will not be re-writing cosmology. But do clean your glasses and get the HD+ screen ready on your PC.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

Replies to this message:
 Message 292 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-15-2022 10:58 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(3)
Message 290 of 380 (895713)
07-12-2022 12:04 PM


First Light
JWST First Light release.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(3)
Message 291 of 380 (895714)
07-12-2022 8:56 PM


Major JWST Reveal

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(2)
Message 293 of 380 (895730)
07-16-2022 12:18 AM
Reply to: Message 292 by Tanypteryx
07-15-2022 10:58 PM


Re: JWST “First Light” Caution
And to think, we are going to have 20 years of this.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 292 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-15-2022 10:58 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(3)
Message 296 of 380 (897690)
09-09-2022 11:35 PM


Cool. Something Sorta Good.
The sun has just let loose one of the largest CMEs ever recorded. (coronal mass ejection, spewing out gas, particles, energy). If you are familiar with a Carrington Event - Wikipedia then you know how dangerous these can be for our techno society. Burn up our satellites in space and kill our computers.
This one was super huge. But good news. It was on the other side of the sun pointed away from us so we only get the residuals.
But, more good news, Venus is now on that dark side of the sun. Venus was pretty much the target. Amun-Ra was pissed at her and threw a big old bolt of CME at her. But, better luck yet, Solar Orbiter, one of our newest sophisticated sun watching satellites on its way into solar orbit, is in the midsts of a gravity assist maneuver at Venus.
A Gigantic Solar Eruption Just Emerged From The Far Side of The Sun : ScienceAlert
The data from this thing is going to be huge ... if you're an engineer. Knowledge from this event will cause a whole new generation of protection technologies for satellites and power grids.
Ok, so not earth shattering news. But it is interesting, if you're interested in this kind of stuff. More so though it is a positive. Like a little ribbon tucked into our future society to counterbalance the coming consuming inferno that has already scheduled our far future extinction.
We may be doomed but we can at least be upbeat about what's left. Ok, bad example.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

Replies to this message:
 Message 297 by Phat, posted 09-10-2022 12:05 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 299 of 380 (897696)
09-10-2022 12:47 AM
Reply to: Message 297 by Phat
09-10-2022 12:05 AM


Re: Cool. Something Sorta Good.
That is what the data will tell us. If it was us Amun-Ra shot at what damage would that thing, multiple times Carrington, do to us? The analysis is being done. What everyone agrees with, however, is that the jewish lasers the republican's fear will be considerably curtailed for more than just a few months.
But, specifically, our satellites would be fried but that's ok because our land-line comm systems will also be fried. Probably.
As long as you're not using any metallic thread you could probably still string two dixie cups together across the house.
Or not.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 297 by Phat, posted 09-10-2022 12:05 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 313 of 380 (897757)
09-11-2022 7:18 AM
Reply to: Message 303 by Tangle
09-10-2022 1:11 PM


Doom! Doom! We're all Doomed!

Give it a rest.
Doom can never rest until the prophesies are fulfilled. Until the food fails, the wars win and the last human expires. What good is rest when jungle and hungry hunters are all around you?
Even from above there is impending doom for humanity. Big honking space rocks the size of Montana that would scramble the insides of this planet like an egg. Laser blasts from gamma-ray bursts that incinerate half the planet instantly, leaving the other half to slowly smoulder. Doom of the fieriest kind.
The doom of the coal-fired furnace, the gas-fired plant, the gas guzzler SUV idling stuck in traffic. The hunters stalk the jungle eating relentlessly at the very eco-fabric that sustains us. Doom awaits us at every turn.
The tipping points have been reached; the nest irrevocably poisoned.
Have I mentioned we’re doomed?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 303 by Tangle, posted 09-10-2022 1:11 PM Tangle has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 340 of 380 (908625)
03-17-2023 5:05 PM
Reply to: Message 339 by Percy
03-17-2023 4:28 PM


Re: DFTT
.
A sickeningly prodigious profile stands upon somebody else's legs. Nothing of importance is omni-present, much like candy. Chair number eleven can get both high and low.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 339 by Percy, posted 03-17-2023 4:28 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 342 by Dredge, posted 03-17-2023 10:33 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 343 of 380 (908628)
03-17-2023 10:42 PM
Reply to: Message 342 by Dredge
03-17-2023 10:33 PM


Re: DFTT
You are wrong again, cracker breath. Only the few are privileged with knowledge of the DNB code. You are not one of us.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 342 by Dredge, posted 03-17-2023 10:33 PM Dredge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 347 by Dredge, posted 03-18-2023 10:20 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(2)
Message 344 of 380 (908630)
03-18-2023 12:22 AM
Reply to: Message 316 by Percy
10-20-2022 7:05 AM


More JWST
percy on jwst writes:
Wow!
That's the local stuff. Up close and in living color.
The away stuff? What this scope was built for? Staggeringly beyond expectations. JWST is the most revealing scope we ever aimed at the sky and the data is orders of magnitude beyond expectations in both quality and quantity.
What a beautiful machine.
JWST Sees So Many Galaxies, and It's Just Getting Started - Universe Today

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 316 by Percy, posted 10-20-2022 7:05 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 348 of 380 (908669)
03-18-2023 11:44 PM
Reply to: Message 347 by Dredge
03-18-2023 10:20 PM


Re: DFTT
Yes. Exactly.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 347 by Dredge, posted 03-18-2023 10:20 PM Dredge has replied

Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 356 of 380 (910247)
04-19-2023 11:14 PM


A Hubble Constant Divided
With this group you’ve probably heard of this. An update for those who may be interested.
The universe is broken.
We know the universe is expanding. Astronomers think it would be a good idea to know how fast that expansion is, the Hubble constant. Seems reasonable. They have come up with two different ways to make this measurement so to verify each other.
Except they don’t. There is tension in the Hubble constant.
I won’t get into the details of the 2 methods. If you want details, please ask.
One is supernova distance studies and gives us an expansion rate (Hubble constant) of 73 ± 1 kilometers per second per megaparsec (km/s/Mpc), with 1 Megaparsec representing around 3.26 million light-years. The 73 ± 1 is the important part. The other method is analysis of the super-fine structures of the CMB. When astronomers measure these tiny variations in this fossil radiation, it predicts a modern-day value for the Hubble constant of around 67.5 ± 0.5 km/s/Mpc.
If you’re familiar with error bars then the problem is glaring. 73 ± 1 and 67.5 ± 0.5 mean these are two totally distinct different numbers. They cannot both be the Hubble constant. The last years have seen tech improvements, new math models, many refinements in both methods and all that happens is the error bars get less and less. By refining our accuracy, we have only confirmed a major disconnect.
I want to emphasize this part because I think it is vital and overlooked. There have been 2 major teams leading these studies but there is an army of cosmologists that pokes and prods over every graph, number, equation. This has been under a microscope for years. No one has found the problem. It is that deep.
Both methods used appear solid and accurate from our knowledge of the cosmos. That means something is missing in our understanding of the universe.
If the error is in our understanding of the CMB then we have errors in a lot of cosmology based on this. If the problem is with the supernova analysis, then we have real problems with our understanding of stellar physics and QFT.
The hunt is on. The fun continues. There is something out there, there is knowledge we missed. Solving this can have a major impact on our world view.
Some may ask why this post in a forum about gods and evolution. I submit this post shows this universe also works in strange and mysterious ways as well as demonstrates the evolution of human knowledge.
R'amen
Also, want to play with our new toy. I like the new toy.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

Replies to this message:
 Message 357 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-20-2023 12:04 AM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 358 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-20-2023 12:06 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 359 of 380 (910250)
04-20-2023 12:09 AM
Reply to: Message 358 by Tanypteryx
04-20-2023 12:06 AM


Re: A Hubble Constant Divided
Fixed it.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 358 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-20-2023 12:06 AM Tanypteryx has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 360 of 380 (910252)
04-20-2023 1:14 AM
Reply to: Message 357 by Tanypteryx
04-20-2023 12:04 AM


Re: A Hubble Constant Divided
We have all seen the CMB maps, but how they get from that to the Hubble Constant is not clear at all.
Math. Lots of math.
We can see where certain particle horizons existed in the CMB. One of those being the horizon size at the time of matter and radiation equality. That leads to an extrapolation of H0.
This is an abstract. The PDF is downloadable.
Observation of the Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy | Highlights of Astronomy | Cambridge Core
quote:
The next scale of interest is the horizon size at the time of matter and radiation
equality. That corresponds to a current physical size of approximately 13(fl0h ) ~ Mpc,
where h = Ho/100kms~ Mpc and H0 is the current value of the Hubble constant
and Q. is the ratio of the density of the universe to the critical density. This physical size
corresponds to an angle of approximately 8h arcminutes. This is the natural scale of
structure formation.
This angular scale also happens to be about the range of one optical depth
for Thompson scattering at a redshift of 1100. Thus objects smaller than about 8
arcminutes (0.1 degrees) are blurred by the finite thickness of the surface of last scattering.
Anisotropies on much smaller scale are expected to arise from foreground effects rather
than at the surface of last scattering.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 357 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-20-2023 12:04 AM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(2)
Message 362 of 380 (910257)
04-20-2023 2:26 AM


CMB Rabbit Hole
Since the CMB was mentioned I went looking for a video that could explain what it is and how productive the analyses.
I found a good one. It is not at all technical but explains why the CMB is such a rich treasure trove of data for cosmology.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

  
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