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Author Topic:   Evolutionists improbable becoming probable argument
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 14 of 98 (907703)
02-27-2023 7:55 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Taq
02-21-2023 10:57 AM


There may be many bulls eyes, but in the large space of all possible sequencies of genes, it's really nothing. Genes have a few hundred upto two million bases.
For 100 bases, there are already more than 10^60 possible sequences. How many of these would be usefull?
And this is for the low count. For 200 bases, the number of possible sequences is already more than the estimated number of atoms in the entire universe.
For larger genes, the space grows exponentially. Do you think the number of useful sequences grows just as fast? Very unlikely, I'd say.
With 400 bases, the space is already as large as if every atom was a universe itself. And we are still at the very low end of short genes.
If anybody is not understanding probability, it's evolutionists. Do the math and evolutionists are playing a losing game.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Taq, posted 02-21-2023 10:57 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:05 PM sensei has replied
 Message 26 by PaulK, posted 02-28-2023 7:11 AM sensei has replied
 Message 27 by Percy, posted 02-28-2023 9:42 AM sensei has replied
 Message 29 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:52 AM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 16 of 98 (907707)
02-27-2023 8:28 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:05 PM


Only simple minded plebs, believe that the argument has been refuted.
If anybody assumed that sequences were equally likely, it's Taq, with his four coin example.
Even if 99.99% of the bad sequences had zero chance of occuring, it solves nothing! You have such poor concept of numbers LOL!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:05 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:42 PM sensei has replied
 Message 30 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:54 AM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 18 of 98 (907717)
02-27-2023 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:42 PM


I challenged it, but it was above your level to comprehend, apparently. I made two concrete points and all you could do is ignore, stick your head in the sand and pretend that your refutation still has any merit.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:42 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 19 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:18 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 20 of 98 (907728)
02-27-2023 9:32 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:18 PM


Hahah, you did not even understand the two points. You are just trolling now, as your arguments have failed you.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:18 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:43 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 22 of 98 (907735)
02-27-2023 9:55 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:43 PM


Wow, do you even know which two points was referring to? I guess not. You keep failing in every topic haha.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:43 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:57 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 25 of 98 (907741)
02-28-2023 3:38 AM
Reply to: Message 23 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:57 PM


Your source talks about the "fallacy" of assuming that all sequences are equally likely. You must have missed that Taq is the one using this assumption in his examples. And even if many sequences were less likely than others, say 99.99% of bad ones were disregarded completely even, just to steel man your argument, it still would not be of much significant help in the vast space of possible sequences.
And the space of gene sequences of known lengths is well defined. You have refuted nothing. But it's cute that you amateurs think you have lol.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:57 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 31 of 98 (907779)
02-28-2023 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:54 AM


You sank this low to deny what you said yourself? Better go back to school.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:54 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 12:28 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 35 of 98 (907783)
02-28-2023 12:46 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:52 AM


Probabilities are always below 1. You don't even understand that. Your whole example is laughable.
And learn to make useful predictions ahead of time. In science, hypotheses are usually rejected below 0.05 probability. In some cases, we can go lower to 0.01 or in rare cases perhaps 0.001.
You are accepting theories with probabilities billions upon billion times lower. You should not be discussing science. You are unqualified!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:52 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:06 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 36 of 98 (907784)
02-28-2023 12:48 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Taq
02-28-2023 12:28 PM


If you deny that the sequences you posted, are equally likely, under assumption of total randomness of each base, then you are beyond help. And certainly not worth my time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 12:28 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 41 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:08 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 37 of 98 (907785)
02-28-2023 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:44 AM


All sequences with length between 1000 and 1100 are just all sequences that have such length. You need further specification? Have you even ever been to school?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 38 of 98 (907786)
02-28-2023 1:01 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:44 AM


I did not say that it was not true. Accorring to the source AZPaul3 posted, it is not true. I realize that one needs to make certain assumptions to simplify and do useful calculations. So this wasn't an attack on you at all. Sorry if it seemed that way.
I just wanted to show AZPaul3 the irony, that he intended to attack creationists fallacies, right after you used the same assumption that his source considers to be a fallacy.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 39 of 98 (907787)
02-28-2023 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by PaulK
02-28-2023 7:11 AM


You are way behind. Try to keep up.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by PaulK, posted 02-28-2023 7:11 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by PaulK, posted 02-28-2023 1:18 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 42 of 98 (907791)
02-28-2023 1:11 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by Percy
02-28-2023 9:42 AM


If you put random characters on paper, with five characters, it may happen once so often that you get a meaningful word or short sentence. With twenty characters, it's generally less likely to get a full meaningful sentence. Do you have any reason or evidence to support the idea of more useful sequences at greater lengths, compared to the total number of possible arrangements?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Percy, posted 02-28-2023 9:42 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 4:14 PM sensei has replied
 Message 50 by Percy, posted 02-28-2023 4:37 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 43 of 98 (907792)
02-28-2023 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Taq
02-28-2023 1:06 PM


I know better than you, how probabilities work.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:06 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 4:15 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 45 of 98 (907795)
02-28-2023 1:24 PM
Reply to: Message 41 by Taq
02-28-2023 1:08 PM


That was my point exactly. That you made the assumption of equal probability. Which for practical purposes, is a valid assuption. Don't get me wrong. Just that in AZPaul3 books, you are committing some fallacy, if you apply it to genetic sequences or protein sequences.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 41 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:08 PM Taq has not replied

  
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