Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 57 (9173 total)
4 online now:
Newest Member: Neptune7
Post Volume: Total: 917,585 Year: 4,842/9,624 Month: 190/427 Week: 0/103 Day: 0/0 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Evolutionists improbable becoming probable argument
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 31 of 98 (907779)
02-28-2023 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:54 AM


You sank this low to deny what you said yourself? Better go back to school.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:54 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 12:28 PM sensei has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 32 of 98 (907780)
02-28-2023 12:28 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by sensei
02-28-2023 12:24 PM


sensei writes:
You sank this low to deny what you said yourself?
Your inability to answer basic probability questions is noted.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:24 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 36 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:48 PM Taq has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9530
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 33 of 98 (907781)
02-28-2023 12:38 PM


I see that Mike the Wiz opened this thread then pissed off.
I also see that we fell for it. Again.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-28-2023 12:44 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 34 of 98 (907782)
02-28-2023 12:44 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Tangle
02-28-2023 12:38 PM


I see that Mike the Wiz opened this thread then pissed off.
Just as I predicted in Message 511.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Tangle, posted 02-28-2023 12:38 PM Tangle has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 35 of 98 (907783)
02-28-2023 12:46 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:52 AM


Probabilities are always below 1. You don't even understand that. Your whole example is laughable.
And learn to make useful predictions ahead of time. In science, hypotheses are usually rejected below 0.05 probability. In some cases, we can go lower to 0.01 or in rare cases perhaps 0.001.
You are accepting theories with probabilities billions upon billion times lower. You should not be discussing science. You are unqualified!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:52 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:06 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 36 of 98 (907784)
02-28-2023 12:48 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Taq
02-28-2023 12:28 PM


If you deny that the sequences you posted, are equally likely, under assumption of total randomness of each base, then you are beyond help. And certainly not worth my time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 12:28 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 41 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:08 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 37 of 98 (907785)
02-28-2023 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:44 AM


All sequences with length between 1000 and 1100 are just all sequences that have such length. You need further specification? Have you even ever been to school?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 38 of 98 (907786)
02-28-2023 1:01 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by Taq
02-28-2023 10:44 AM


I did not say that it was not true. Accorring to the source AZPaul3 posted, it is not true. I realize that one needs to make certain assumptions to simplify and do useful calculations. So this wasn't an attack on you at all. Sorry if it seemed that way.
I just wanted to show AZPaul3 the irony, that he intended to attack creationists fallacies, right after you used the same assumption that his source considers to be a fallacy.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 39 of 98 (907787)
02-28-2023 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by PaulK
02-28-2023 7:11 AM


You are way behind. Try to keep up.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by PaulK, posted 02-28-2023 7:11 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by PaulK, posted 02-28-2023 1:18 PM sensei has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 40 of 98 (907788)
02-28-2023 1:06 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by sensei
02-28-2023 12:46 PM


sensei writes:
Probabilities are always below 1. You don't even understand that. Your whole example is laughable.
You only call it laughable because you can't address it.
And learn to make useful predictions ahead of time.
Ding Ding Ding Ding. WE HAVE A WINNER!!!
This is exactly what you and other ID/creationists ARE NOT DOING. All you are doing is looking at sequences once they are here instead of predicting their emergence ahead of time. This is the whole problem with the ID/creationist argument. This is the Sharpshooter fallacy.
You are accepting theories with probabilities billions upon billion times lower.
If what you claim is true then I shouldn't be able to shuffle a deck of cards because of the highly improbable outcome.
You should not be discussing science. You are unqualified!
I am a scientist with multiple peer reviewed papers. I have been working as a molecular biologist for 26 years.
You don't know even what science is. You don't know what a theory is. You don't know what evidence is. And you sure don't know how probabilities work.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 35 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:46 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:13 PM Taq has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 41 of 98 (907789)
02-28-2023 1:08 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by sensei
02-28-2023 12:48 PM


sensei writes:
If you deny that the sequences you posted, are equally likely, under assumption of total randomness of each base, then you are beyond help.
All sequences are equally likely in a random sequence. That's what I have been saying for a long time now.
The very act of producing a random sequence means we will have produced a highly improbable outcome. Wouldn't you agree?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:48 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 45 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:24 PM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 42 of 98 (907791)
02-28-2023 1:11 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by Percy
02-28-2023 9:42 AM


If you put random characters on paper, with five characters, it may happen once so often that you get a meaningful word or short sentence. With twenty characters, it's generally less likely to get a full meaningful sentence. Do you have any reason or evidence to support the idea of more useful sequences at greater lengths, compared to the total number of possible arrangements?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Percy, posted 02-28-2023 9:42 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 4:14 PM sensei has replied
 Message 50 by Percy, posted 02-28-2023 4:37 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 43 of 98 (907792)
02-28-2023 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Taq
02-28-2023 1:06 PM


I know better than you, how probabilities work.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:06 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 4:15 PM sensei has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17838
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 44 of 98 (907793)
02-28-2023 1:18 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by sensei
02-28-2023 1:03 PM


quote:
You are way behind. Try to keep up.
And yet I am still ahead of you. You haven’t produced anything like a valid argument in this thread, let alone got to doing the math.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:03 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 46 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:26 PM PaulK has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 45 of 98 (907795)
02-28-2023 1:24 PM
Reply to: Message 41 by Taq
02-28-2023 1:08 PM


That was my point exactly. That you made the assumption of equal probability. Which for practical purposes, is a valid assuption. Don't get me wrong. Just that in AZPaul3 books, you are committing some fallacy, if you apply it to genetic sequences or protein sequences.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 41 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 1:08 PM Taq has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024