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Author Topic:   Evolutionists improbable becoming probable argument
sensei
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Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 16 of 98 (907707)
02-27-2023 8:28 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:05 PM


Only simple minded plebs, believe that the argument has been refuted.
If anybody assumed that sequences were equally likely, it's Taq, with his four coin example.
Even if 99.99% of the bad sequences had zero chance of occuring, it solves nothing! You have such poor concept of numbers LOL!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:05 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:42 PM sensei has replied
 Message 30 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:54 AM sensei has replied

  
AZPaul3
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Posts: 8583
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(1)
Message 17 of 98 (907712)
02-27-2023 8:42 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by sensei
02-27-2023 8:28 PM


Only simple minded plebs, believe that the argument has been refuted.
Yes, of course. Regardless, creationist probability arguments against evolution have been refuted as demonstrated. That is the reality and you have not challenged it. You bitch about it and insult the mathematicians behind it but the reality is there still.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 8:28 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:03 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 18 of 98 (907717)
02-27-2023 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:42 PM


I challenged it, but it was above your level to comprehend, apparently. I made two concrete points and all you could do is ignore, stick your head in the sand and pretend that your refutation still has any merit.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:42 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 19 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:18 PM sensei has replied

  
AZPaul3
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Posts: 8583
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 19 of 98 (907723)
02-27-2023 9:18 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by sensei
02-27-2023 9:03 PM


Your two points were both versions of the same error I quoted in my message. That is why I quoted it. You didn't read the paper did you.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:03 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:32 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
sensei
Member
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 20 of 98 (907728)
02-27-2023 9:32 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:18 PM


Hahah, you did not even understand the two points. You are just trolling now, as your arguments have failed you.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:18 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:43 PM sensei has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8583
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 21 of 98 (907731)
02-27-2023 9:43 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by sensei
02-27-2023 9:32 PM


What did I not understand about your two probability points?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:32 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 22 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:55 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
sensei
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Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 22 of 98 (907735)
02-27-2023 9:55 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:43 PM


Wow, do you even know which two points was referring to? I guess not. You keep failing in every topic haha.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:43 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:57 PM sensei has replied

  
AZPaul3
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Posts: 8583
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(2)
Message 23 of 98 (907736)
02-27-2023 9:57 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by sensei
02-27-2023 9:55 PM


Then feel free to enlighten me.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 22 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 9:55 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 3:38 AM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
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Posts: 4483
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
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Message 24 of 98 (907740)
02-28-2023 2:24 AM
Reply to: Message 15 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:05 PM


What a great read! I'm saving it for future reference and to run down some of the citations. This may be a trove of handy references and it bursts some recent probability bullshitter's bubbles.
We've been over all this stuff before, most recently with Taq (his patience is admirable!), but it's really nice seeing the whole bunch of them (creationist probability arguments) analyzed and torn to shreds.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:05 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
sensei
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Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 25 of 98 (907741)
02-28-2023 3:38 AM
Reply to: Message 23 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 9:57 PM


Your source talks about the "fallacy" of assuming that all sequences are equally likely. You must have missed that Taq is the one using this assumption in his examples. And even if many sequences were less likely than others, say 99.99% of bad ones were disregarded completely even, just to steel man your argument, it still would not be of much significant help in the vast space of possible sequences.
And the space of gene sequences of known lengths is well defined. You have refuted nothing. But it's cute that you amateurs think you have lol.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 9:57 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 28 by Taq, posted 02-28-2023 10:44 AM sensei has replied

  
PaulK
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Posts: 17831
Joined: 01-10-2003
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(3)
Message 26 of 98 (907748)
02-28-2023 7:11 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by sensei
02-27-2023 7:55 PM


quote:
If anybody is not understanding probability, it's evolutionists. Do the math and evolutionists are playing a losing game.
Really? Let’s see you do the math.
First formulate your argument. If that is valid we can identify the correct calculation. When you’ve got that right, you can do the math.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 7:55 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 39 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:03 PM PaulK has replied

  
Percy
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From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.6


(2)
Message 27 of 98 (907759)
02-28-2023 9:42 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by sensei
02-27-2023 7:55 PM


sensei writes:
For a gene of 100 bases, there are already more than 10^60 possible sequences. How many of these would be usefull?
It's not possible to answer the question, "How many of the possible sequences would be neutral or better than neutral compared to the current sequence?" And any answer would change over time because of changing circumstances at the protein, phenotype and environmental levels.
And this is for the low count. For 200 bases, the number of possible sequences is already more than the estimated number of atoms in the entire universe.
Because it affects the probabilities you're calculating quite substantially it's worth noting that nucleotides are grouped into codons. 61 specify amino acids and the remaining 3 are start/stop codons. But there are only 20 amino acids, so there is some redundancy in that more than one codon can represent the same amino acid.
So the probability isn't what you calculated since what matters isn't the nucleotide sequence but the amino acid sequence that the codons correspond to. Your calculation is 4198 = 1.6 × 10119 (198 instead of 200 so that it is a multiple of 3 making 66 codons) is the number of random nucleotide sequences. But the beginning and end of the gene's codon sequence have to be start and stop codons, so that means only 64 coding codons. And since there are only 20 amino acids, the actual probability of any given random codon sequence is 2064 = 1.8 × 1083, nearly 40 orders of magnitude smaller than your original calculation.
For larger genes, the space grows exponentially. Do you think the number of useful sequences grows just as fast? Very unlikely, I'd say.
Why do you think it very unlikely? How would you know? Isn't it a function of influences independent of the sequence itself and inherently unknowable?
But obviously the answers are very favorable to life. SARS-Cov-2 is a recent example, evolving merrily around our defensive strategies.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 7:55 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 42 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:11 PM Percy has replied

  
Taq
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Posts: 10142
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 28 of 98 (907763)
02-28-2023 10:44 AM
Reply to: Message 25 by sensei
02-28-2023 3:38 AM


sensei writes:
Your source talks about the "fallacy" of assuming that all sequences are equally likely. You must have missed that Taq is the one using this assumption in his examples.
For a random sequence, all sequences are equally likely. Why do you think this isn't true?
And even if many sequences were less likely than others, say 99.99% of bad ones were disregarded completely even, just to steel man your argument, it still would not be of much significant help in the vast space of possible sequences.
What does that even mean?
And the space of gene sequences of known lengths is well defined.
Where is it defined?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 3:38 AM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:50 PM Taq has not replied
 Message 38 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 1:01 PM Taq has not replied

  
Taq
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Posts: 10142
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


(1)
Message 29 of 98 (907765)
02-28-2023 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by sensei
02-27-2023 7:55 PM


sensei writes:
For larger genes, the space grows exponentially. Do you think the number of useful sequences grows just as fast? Very unlikely, I'd say.
That's just a bare assertion. You aren't showing us any math or any evidence.
With 400 bases, the space is already as large as if every atom was a universe itself. And we are still at the very low end of short genes.
That's irrelevant. Let's do some math for what is happening in the human genome.
The diploid human genome is 6 billion bases. There are 3 possible substitution mutations at each base, so that's a total of 18 billion possible mutations. Each of us is born with about 50 mutations. The probability that each person is born with the 50 mutations they are born with is 18 billion to the 50th power, or ~6x10^512. That's just for one person. And yet, this happens all of the time even though the outcome is so improbable. It also produces a human even though the odds of that genome existing are nearly zero.
Do the math and evolutionists are playing a losing game.
Funny how you can't do the math.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 7:55 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 35 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:46 PM Taq has replied

  
Taq
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Posts: 10142
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 30 of 98 (907766)
02-28-2023 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 16 by sensei
02-27-2023 8:28 PM


sensei writes:
If anybody assumed that sequences were equally likely, it's Taq, with his four coin example.
Apparently, you can't do the math.
What are the probabilities of these two sequences of coin flips?
sequence 1 : H, H, H, H
sequence 2 : T, H, H, T

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by sensei, posted 02-27-2023 8:28 PM sensei has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by sensei, posted 02-28-2023 12:24 PM Taq has replied

  
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