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Author Topic:   Evolutionists improbable becoming probable argument
Tanypteryx
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Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(3)
Message 6 of 98 (907217)
02-20-2023 2:45 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by mike the wiz
02-19-2023 8:12 AM


Mike the Pisser writes:
However I question the conditional premise that, "if something is improbable eventually it will become probable given enough time and numbers".
Can you document anyone but you saying "if something is improbable eventually it will become probable given enough time and numbers"?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by mike the wiz, posted 02-19-2023 8:12 AM mike the wiz has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by NosyNed, posted 02-20-2023 11:54 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(2)
Message 9 of 98 (907225)
02-21-2023 2:55 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by NosyNed
02-20-2023 11:54 PM


Re: Quotes
"if something is not impossible then if you try often enough it'll happen"
OK, I agree with this but that wasn't what I was asking Mike to cite, because I think he is implying that we were being deceptive. And I think that would be odder to hear someone from our side say that.
Tanypteryx writes:
Mike the Pisser writes:
However I question the conditional premise that, "if something is improbable eventually it will become probable given enough time and numbers".
Can you document anyone but you saying "if something is improbable eventually it will become probable given enough time and numbers"?
To me these two sentences are not saying the same thing and I want to know the context, because mikey's whole post stinks of distortion of our supporting evidence with strawmen probability scenarios that supposedly are of equal probability of evolution or abiogenesis or something else happening.
I'm just sick of people misusing probability theory, 1 chance per million tries doesn't mean you have to try 999,999 times before you win. The 1st or twentieth, or fiftieth try has as high a probability of being the winner as any other number. The analogy of LIFE being the same as winning a bunch of high odds lotteries in a row is purely creationists misusing math and distorting science. Trillions upon quadrillions of atoms and molecules going through chemical reactions fueled by heat from the earth and energy from the sun for a billion years swamps and completely overwhelms their silly probability calculation of life or the Big Bang or what ever other silly BS they come up with![/RANT]
ABE: And if conditions change, then something that was improbable can indeed become probable and it's dishonest for Mikey to imply this is deceptive behavior by scientists to report.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by NosyNed, posted 02-20-2023 11:54 PM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by NosyNed, posted 02-21-2023 8:54 AM Tanypteryx has seen this message but not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(1)
Message 24 of 98 (907740)
02-28-2023 2:24 AM
Reply to: Message 15 by AZPaul3
02-27-2023 8:05 PM


What a great read! I'm saving it for future reference and to run down some of the citations. This may be a trove of handy references and it bursts some recent probability bullshitter's bubbles.
We've been over all this stuff before, most recently with Taq (his patience is admirable!), but it's really nice seeing the whole bunch of them (creationist probability arguments) analyzed and torn to shreds.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 02-27-2023 8:05 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 34 of 98 (907782)
02-28-2023 12:44 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Tangle
02-28-2023 12:38 PM


I see that Mike the Wiz opened this thread then pissed off.
Just as I predicted in Message 511.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Tangle, posted 02-28-2023 12:38 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4500
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 74 of 98 (907916)
03-02-2023 12:45 AM
Reply to: Message 73 by PaulK
03-02-2023 12:13 AM


A macroevolutionary event.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by PaulK, posted 03-02-2023 12:13 AM PaulK has not replied

  
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