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Author | Topic: Rebuttal To Creationists - "Since We Can't Directly Observe Evolution..." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dwise1 Member Posts: 5930 Joined: Member Rating: 5.8 |
dwise1 still doesn't understand descent with modification and how the multiplication rule affects this process. Oh, the irony! I do understand, whereas you continually demonstrate that you have no clue! Let's use the state lottery example to show your misunderstanding. "Winning the lottery" would be acquiring a new trait, eg through mutation. Using some arbitrary probability to illustrate the impact of certain probability calculations, we'll use the probability of winning one of the draw games in California:pwin = 2.4×10-8 . You see (or rather you refuse to), you insist that the lottery math model would be to observe one single bacterium and requiring that single individual bacterium to "win the lottery twice in a row". That would be P = pwin2 = (2.4×10-8)2 = 5.76×10-16 . But that's not how the biology works. Instead, we are dealing with a population of bacteria, exactly how those lottery tickets are bought by a population of millions of Californians. The question is not how likely it is for you or for me to win, but rather that someone, anyone, will win.
You want to apply the multiplication rule to that, but we cannot do that directly and naïvely as you insist on doing. Rather, the math model (for which you foolishly have nothing but disdain) would be:
Psomebody wins = 1 - peverybody loses peverybody loses = plosepopulation plose = 1 - pwin population = 39,000,000 (based on the population of California) plose = 1 - pwin= 1 - 2.4×10-8 = 0.999999976 peverybody loses = plosepopulation= 0.999999976 39,000,000 = 0.39 Psomebody wins = 1 - peverybody loses= 1 - 0.39 = 0.61 Those odds are not bad. Anyone would want to be able to go to Vegas with those odds. But that's just one "game" (or single generation of bacteria). The lottery game happens twice a week, and so on:
Sorry to hit you with math, something that you've demonstrated you don't understand, but it was necessary for clarity.
Your "model" of picking one single individual bacterium and observing it exclusive of all the other bacteria in the population is obviously wrong and gives absolutely useless results. The basic problem with your "model" is that it does not in any manner describe what's happening in that population of bacteria. Nor even with how life works. We have no idea what the fuck you think you're trying to describe, you're so divorced from reality! Rather, our model of the first mutation appearing anywhere in the population does describe what does happen in that population. Now, what about that anybody who, after having won the first time, goes on to win a second time? Your faulty approach of making that p2 (5.76×10-16) does not describe reality. Rather, in reality his second win would be equal to p (2.4×10-8) which is about 100 million times more probable. But that is only if his second win is in the very next game. Far more realistic would be for him to continue to play and lose many times before winning the lottery that second time. The same complement rule (which you do not understand and never will due to your willful stupidity) describing his initial win would be used, though this time modeling the probability of an individual playing n times and winning at least once -- in this case (assume playing 5 tickets at a time for a year) our "population" is just over 500 instead of 39 million, so that second win would still be improbable just as it is for all other individuals playing the lottery. But in the bacteria colony, reality is a bit more different. The bacterium that acquires the first mutation does not need to also acquire the second mutation -- that is what you're trying to argue for, isn't it? Rather, that bacterium will reproduce multiple serial times as will its offspring. Therefore, we would need to determine the probability of one of those offspring acquiring the second mutation.
Your "model" (I realize that you really hate that "m-word", almost as much as you hate the "e-word") fails to describe or deal with that reality, whereas our model is based on that reality. I explained all that to you before in Message 868 and elsewhere, but you are too stubbornly and willfully stupid to understand the math. The math is not that complicated, so you shouldn't be so afraid of it.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:dwise1 still doesn't understand descent with modification. Try hard, you can even use your C++ programming skills. An adaptive mutation is a random occurrence just like winning a lottery is. Compute the probability of two adaptive mutations occurring on a lineage. Use the same math. Here's a simple analogy to understand natural selection in an adaptation process. Consider if for your family to survive that your family needs to win two lotteries. And the probability of winning one lottery is 1 in a million, and the probability of winning the other lottery is 1 in a million. For you to win both lotteries, that probability is 1 in a million times 1 in a million equals 1 in a trillion, a very low probability indeed. But let's say, you win one of those lotteries. And because of this, you are a very wealthy man and you can raise a very large family. And all your descendants start buying tickets to the second lottery. As soon as you have enough descendants, there will be a high probability that one of your descendants wins that second lottery for your family. The probability of an adaptive mutation occurring on some variant in a population depends on the number of replications that variant does and the mutation rate, nothing else. There are lots of factors that affect that variant from doing the necessary number of replications for the next adaptive mutation. Competition is one of those factors. It is also possible that a single adaptive mutation does not exist for the given selection conditions. But it all comes down to the fact that the number of replications and the mutation rate determine that probability. And adaptive evolutionary events don't add, they are linked by the multiplication rule as are your chances of winning two lotteries. That's how the Kishony and Lenski experiments work. Try doing the math.
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Kleinman writes:
You're in no position to say that. You have demonstrated that you don't know the first thing about evolution. Come back when you have learned the difference between cousins and grandparents. You are already in way over your head....Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:Sure I am. I know how your imaginary relatives evolve drug resistance. Too bad that biologists can't explain it.
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Kleinman writes:
If you think my relatives and your relatives and everybody's relatives are imaginary, you know nothing. I know how your imaginary relatives evolve drug resistance.Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:ringo, you are not related to bacteria and you don't know how bacteria evolve drug resistance and neither do biologists.
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
Kleinman writes:
I am and you are. You can disown your family all you like but it doesn't change your DNA. ringo, you are not related to bacteria....Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:You have been indoctrinated by people that don't understand biological evolution. There are no transition fossils, it takes a billion replications for each adaptive mutation in the Kishony and Lenski experiments and that is in a constant environment with only a single selection pressure. Universal common descent is pseudo-scientific mythology spread by people who can't do mathematics properly and don't understand how to apply the laws of physics to biological evolution. You have bought a claim perpetuated by biologists that can't explain how drug resistance evolves or why cancer treatments fail.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8513 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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You have been indoctrinated by people that don't understand biological evolution. There are no transition fossils, it takes a billion replications for each blah blah blah Yes, Kleinman. Of course, Kleiman. And more blah blah back at you, Kleinman. I guess you really don't know how pathetically lost you look. Kleinman, no one gives a shit. Taking the spirit from jar in Message 36 you are a clown. Your only value here is a mild chuckle. We really don't give a flyin' flip.Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
From Message 2734
AZPaul3:And now AZPaul3's recent contribution: Kleinman:AZPaul3 doesn't do well when his bubble is burst.
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Kleinman writes:
The only one here who doesn't understand biological evolution is you. You don't even understand that grandparents are different from cousins. That is an abysmal misunderstanding of biological evolution.
You have been indoctrinated by people that don't understand biological evolution. Kleinman writes:
Universal common descent was understood centuries ago because of gross anatomy - and it has been confirmed conclusively by DNA. Your misunderstanding of mathematics can not undo reality. Universal common descent is pseudo-scientific mythology...Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Kleinman writes:
Kleinman looks at his cousins and sees his grandparents. AZPaul3 doesn't do well when his bubble is burst. When Kleinman sees bubbles, he's seeing the inside of his head.Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:If you or any biologist understood biological evolution, you could explain how drug resistance evolves and why cancer treatments fail. But you don't and biologists don't. Message 2787 Kleinman:ringo is not doing so well either, but that's because he has been indoctinated by people that don't understand biological evolution.
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ringo Member (Idle past 412 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Kleinman writes:
Yup. They can. They do. If you understood the difference between grandparents and cousins, you might be able to understand them. If you or any biologist understood biological evolution, you could explain how drug resistance evolves and why cancer treatments fail.Come all of you cowboys all over this land, I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command: To hold a six shooter, and never to run As long as there's bullets in both of your guns. -- Woody Guthrie
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 335 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:vimsey gave it his best shot by posting a link that couldn't explain the Kishony experiment. So you have a six-shooter, perhaps you could do better, but you won't. It is so sad the way you have been indoctrinated.
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