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Author Topic:   Absence of Evidence
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


(1)
Message 1 of 39 (905394)
01-15-2023 12:51 PM


The phrase "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" has always bugged me. We throw it around all the time but I'm not sure we're using it correctly.
If there is no evidence for something where there should be something if the something existed, then that is evidence that the thing does not exist.
In a science context wiki gives the example of drug research
"Evidence of absence and absence of evidence are similar but distinct concepts. This distinction is captured in the aphorism "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." [...] Despite what the expression may seem to imply, a lack of evidence can be informative. For example, when testing a new drug, if no harmful effects are observed then this suggests that the drug is safe.[3] This is because, if the drug were harmful, evidence of that fact can be expected to turn up during testing. The expectation of evidence makes its absence significant.[4]"
When it does apply is when we've not actually looked for the evidence or not looked properly, then it's simply an argument from ignorance.
The argument from ignorance for "absence of evidence" is not necessarily fallacious, for example, that a potentially life-saving new drug poses no long-term health risk unless proved otherwise. On the other hand, were such an argument to rely imprudently on the lack of research to promote its conclusion, it would be considered an informal fallacy whereas the former can be a persuasive way to shift the burden of proof in an argument or debate.[6]
Personally, I find the lack of evidence for an interventionist god where we should find such evidence - such as payer works, miracles happen, god changes the bread and wine into his body and blood at the eucharist, god loves me etc - actually is evidence founded on absence.
Evidence of absence - Wikipedia.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by PaulK, posted 01-26-2023 3:15 AM Tangle has replied
 Message 6 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 7:17 AM Tangle has not replied
 Message 19 by Taq, posted 01-26-2023 11:14 AM Tangle has not replied
 Message 34 by Stile, posted 01-27-2023 12:24 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


(2)
Message 4 of 39 (905400)
01-26-2023 4:04 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by PaulK
01-26-2023 3:15 AM


Paulk writes:
So let me explain what I think it means. It is a complete absence of evidence, not an absence of some evidence we would expect to find, if the proposed entity was present.
The problem with that kind of wording is that we don't have complete knowledge of anything. So if we wish, we can push it into the absurd.
But we do have a lot of knowledge about a lot of stuff now and I think it's safe to say, for example, that if dowsing worked there would be good and sufficient evidence available to show it. Instead there is good evidence that when formally tested under scientific conditions detection is no better than random.
I think at that point we form a conclusion that the absence of evidence is enough to say that dowsing is bollocks. All provisional of course, but as near to certain as we ever get.
Until relatively recently we lacked the technology to detect exoplanets. That was an absence of evidence, not evidence that exoplanets did not exist.
In these sort of cases we do know the extent of what we should see with the technology we have. It wasn't just that there was absence of evidence there was also the absence of our ability to detect it so we could say nothing about it at all.
Or another from this forum. There is no official Roman record of the execution of Jesus. Since we do not have Roman execution records from Judaea covering that time, this is an absence of evidence that is not evidence of absence.
Agreed.
I think rather more persuasive is the argument that if such a character as Jesus actually did all the things he's supposed to have done - been executed by the Romans for it, risen from the dead and caused earthquakes etc etc - we should expect there to be reports of them from those whose writings we do have. We don't have them. It's not conclusive proof, not even close, but it is evidence of absence that can be added to other evidence if we were forced into a binary decision based on the balance of probabilities.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by PaulK, posted 01-26-2023 3:15 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by PaulK, posted 01-26-2023 7:03 AM Tangle has not replied
 Message 9 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 7:37 AM Tangle has not replied
 Message 10 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 7:43 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 16 of 39 (905416)
01-26-2023 10:25 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Phat
01-26-2023 7:43 AM


Re: Can I Get A Witness?
Phat writes:
Keep in mind that at that time, less than 10% of the overall population was even literate and of those even fewer who could write statements. Information was mixed with gossip and innuendo then as it is now. Those who could write were few and far between and had likely never met Jesus personally.
What I was meaning was that there were highly literate historians and diarists alive during those times and in that location whose work we have but who did not mention Jesus or those events.
And then we have the controversy over who actually wrote the Gospels, the motive(s) in writing them, and the whole issue of redactors.

Which to me is indicative of a story worthy of a smear campaign. In my mind, it is a subjective suggestion that a spiritual war/conflict did in fact exist within human nature. There was a lot of interest in suppressing and changing the story.
Mostly it was a lot of different prophets doing the same apocalyptic riffs and a few of their fantastical stories being picked/fabricated many years after the "fact".

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 7:43 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by Theodoric, posted 01-26-2023 10:45 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 18 of 39 (905418)
01-26-2023 10:53 AM
Reply to: Message 17 by Theodoric
01-26-2023 10:45 AM


Re: Can I Get A Witness?
You did a great job finding that post!

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by Theodoric, posted 01-26-2023 10:45 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by Theodoric, posted 01-26-2023 11:16 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 24 of 39 (905427)
01-26-2023 12:11 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by Phat
01-26-2023 11:28 AM


Re: Can I Get A Witness?
Phat writes:
What im saying is that the literate people of that time were likely non-believers and had no interest or sense of urgency in touching the story.
Historians wrote about whatever was going on at the time. There was no threat to anyone, when alive he was just another loony talking end-world stuff. Christianity came much later.
Why you think i'm dishonest is unclear. All that I am doing is speculating. Last I checked, free speech still exists. Your ongoing disdain for apologetic's is noted. You would fit in well with the literate figures of that day. You would have little personal interest in furthering the story.
I did not say that you were dishonest. I suspect you mean someone else.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 11:28 AM Phat has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


(1)
Message 29 of 39 (905441)
01-26-2023 3:15 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by Phat
01-26-2023 2:44 PM


Re: Can I Get A Witness?
Phat writes:
I know. I was never schooled in the disciplines of evidenced responses and/or footnotes. Not that it is any excuse....
Why not learn? Start with an online critical thinking course.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Phat, posted 01-26-2023 2:44 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Phat, posted 01-27-2023 9:39 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9566
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 38 of 39 (905475)
01-27-2023 4:30 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by Phat
01-27-2023 3:06 PM


Re: Getting Back On Topic
Well good luck luck with it Phat.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by Phat, posted 01-27-2023 3:06 PM Phat has not replied

  
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