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Author Topic:   Phat's Bookshelf
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 52 of 174 (904259)
12-24-2022 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by Taq
12-23-2022 1:59 PM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
The bonds worth are calculated in U.S. Dollars. The US Dollar has lost purchasing "power" relative to earlier times nearly always. But thats not the main point.
random ramblings:
There is no easy way out of the corner the Fed has backed us into.
Keep in mind that the Fed doesn’t exist to protect YOU or YOUR money – like some folks might think.
The Fed is there to protect banks and the government.
The decisions they make are all about next quarter’s numbers… or the next election.
Because of this, the Fed’s policies tend to be short-sighted in nature.
They’re not thinking about the effects their actions will have 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road.
And so, the way we see it… the Fed has put temporary band-aids on major wounds that needed more time to heal.
And today, that band-aid needs to be ripped off and get some air so it can heal.
I'm sure that my critics will want my own words. But first lets address the data concerning these bonds you talk about.
Yahoo Finance writes:
Recessions often prove more painful than anticipated because they can be self-reinforcing: Job losses reduce demand, spurring additional layoffs, for example. The extent of a recession depends on the scale of the economic imbalances that cause them.
My argument is evolving. I don't have a total grasp on the reality of finance, but I have studied the effect of commodity pricing as counter cyclical to the US Dollar and International Dollar (as global reserve currency.)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 12-23-2022 1:59 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Theodoric, posted 12-24-2022 12:54 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 83 by Taq, posted 12-27-2022 10:57 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 53 of 174 (904261)
12-24-2022 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by Tanypteryx
12-23-2022 4:03 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Not quite. My BS is 97 this morning. Time to eat.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-23-2022 4:03 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 54 of 174 (904262)
12-24-2022 9:27 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by Taq
12-23-2022 1:59 PM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
Taq writes:
The current rate on a federal I bond is 6.89% right now, and the rate fluctuates with inflation. If you cash out before the 30 year term you lose the last 3 months of interest. So let's say an average of 6.5% interest over 2 years, losing the last 3 months so 1.75 years total.

A $10,000 I bond held over those two years would yield $11,137.50, by my math.
Does your math adjust for inflation? And does our collective math adjust for the fact that the US Dollar, though playing bedrock for the rest of the planet, is no bedrock. It is merely the strongest among equals.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 12-23-2022 1:59 PM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by dwise1, posted 12-24-2022 6:18 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 59 of 174 (904269)
12-25-2022 4:30 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Theodoric
12-24-2022 10:06 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Im not a scholar. I dont use footnotes or references. 90% of the information that I repeat is gleaned from books and written source materials, but since I never take nor never have taken notes I dont have written sources. IIRC, the money growth was M1. Let me search a bit and see if i can find anything:
Or are you ready to admit you have no clue what you are babbling about
I have been told by people who actually know me that I am intuitive. While I readily admit that I have little if any solid objective evidence, this is irrelevant to what may turn out to be a closer approximation of future scenarios than you even fear in your worst imagination. In which case I hope I'm wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Theodoric, posted 12-24-2022 10:06 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 60 by Theodoric, posted 12-25-2022 10:15 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 64 of 174 (904316)
12-27-2022 7:02 AM
Reply to: Message 63 by Tanypteryx
12-25-2022 11:17 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Never say never, damsel man. Once I get going, you will learn a thing or two, unless your thinking is too clouded by political extremism. I predict that a year from now you will have a wee bit of begrudging respect for me. If not, I will have been proven to be just another old man with a sugar-pickled brain and a delusional exaggeration of my own intelligence.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-25-2022 11:17 AM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 92 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-27-2022 12:29 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 65 of 174 (904317)
12-27-2022 7:05 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Theodoric
12-25-2022 11:15 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
You, on the other hand light fires under my gut. I think I can match your intelligence, but you do force me to work at it, I must admit. Why not join this book nook discussion by presenting us with a short list of the books *you* have read recently. I don't expect much of a list, but you may surprise me.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Theodoric, posted 12-25-2022 11:15 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 79 by Theodoric, posted 12-27-2022 10:53 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 66 of 174 (904318)
12-27-2022 7:11 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by ringo
12-19-2022 12:08 PM


Topic Synopsis
ringo writes:
You're just diluting your nonsense by repeating it in so many threads.
Duly noted. You will note that all nonsense Academic discipline and conversation regarding my bookcase will be brought here. All that I ask is that we discuss one book per post, unless otherwise noted and explained.
ringo writes:
What I'm saying is read the books and then discuss them.
Fair enough. I do have a habit of beginning new books before finishing old ones. This is true especially with my latest book which I have already listened to over and over on Audible.
ringo writes:
But you're treating the books the same way you treat YouTube - as absolute truth with no room for discussion. If you were actually thinking about the content, you should be able to discuss the rebuttals.
I plan on it. Keep in mind, O educated Peanut Gallery, that I am 63, I work every day, and I have little time to fool around here entertaining your skeptically pickled brains. Now that I have consolidated all of my books into this one topic, we can discuss them...all of them...here.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by ringo, posted 12-19-2022 12:08 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 80 by ringo, posted 12-27-2022 10:55 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 67 of 174 (904319)
12-27-2022 7:17 AM
Reply to: Message 46 by Taq
12-23-2022 12:47 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Taq writes:
Bonds come with a guaranteed interest rate.
Explain the guarantee. I was always taught that there are no guarantees in this life. The US has had a stable dollar forr thirty-fifty years. The next 50 will see its collapse. Your bonds wont feed a fireplace then.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by Taq, posted 12-23-2022 12:47 PM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 81 by Theodoric, posted 12-27-2022 10:57 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 68 of 174 (904320)
12-27-2022 7:20 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Theodoric
12-22-2022 10:19 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Theo writes:
You cannot even stay on topic on your own topics. How about you take a break and come back when you can concentrate on one or two of the OPs you started.
I will try. I renamed the topic we are in and do not plan on starting any new Book Nook topics no matter how many books I read...
BTW, the government does not provide a product.
Correct. The government provides a guarantee. My point is that this guarantee is shaky.
BTW did your esteemed financial expert (friends) ever get back to you?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Theodoric, posted 12-22-2022 10:19 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 82 by Theodoric, posted 12-27-2022 10:57 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 69 of 174 (904321)
12-27-2022 7:22 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by nwr
12-22-2022 10:20 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
nwr writes:
The private sector has been buying politicians, particularly Republicans, to enable them to rip of the American workers. Those workers are as productive as ever, but most of what they have produced has been going to the top.

No, the wealthy won't have to save America. Rather, Americans will need to take back those ill gotten gains from the wealthy thieves.
The government will need much higher taxes than that. We should rename the slogan Build Back Broke.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by nwr, posted 12-22-2022 10:20 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 70 of 174 (904322)
12-27-2022 7:25 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by ringo
12-22-2022 11:58 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
ringo writes:
You're still not addressing any rebuttals.
Give me a minute! Sheesh. I cant very well answer every one of your rapid fire posts and read books at the same time. Plus work. Plus sleep. Plus take care of myself. You are just gonna have to wait.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by ringo, posted 12-22-2022 11:58 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 84 by ringo, posted 12-27-2022 11:01 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 71 of 174 (904323)
12-27-2022 7:29 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Taq
12-22-2022 12:04 PM


its The Marketplace, stupid
Taq writes:
It is rather obvious that the marketplace already sets the values of products, and it does so in whatever currency is legal tender in their country. International markets also determine the relative value of currencies.
Currency used to be based on a bedrock value. Nowadays, it is based on the full faith and trust of the people. Thats it. And it takes no rocket scientist to conclude that such a value can and does change. Granted the markets (and marketplaces) are stable for now. This will change in 2023 and beyond. This is no mere macro-cycle we are in. We are at the beginning of the end of the life we now know.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Taq, posted 12-22-2022 12:04 PM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 93 by nwr, posted 12-27-2022 1:02 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 96 by Theodoric, posted 12-27-2022 6:44 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 99 by AZPaul3, posted 12-27-2022 8:53 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 72 of 174 (904324)
12-27-2022 7:34 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Taq
12-22-2022 1:45 PM


One Of The Nice Things
Taq writes:
As it turns out, one of the nice features of hard assets is that you can trade them for dollars in a digital transaction.
Granted. Note that the value of hard assets is always measured in dollars. Now...what were dollars measured in again? Value-wise.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Taq, posted 12-22-2022 1:45 PM Taq has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 73 of 174 (904325)
12-27-2022 7:41 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by Theodoric
12-22-2022 1:52 PM


Theo writes:
What is this sentence trying to say? At best it is a non-sequitur at worst word salad.
Mr.Dictionary writes:
noun
noun: non sequitur; plural noun: non sequiturs; noun: nonsequitur; plural noun: nonsequiturs
a conclusion or statement that does not logically follow from the previous argument or statement.
"his weird mixed metaphors and non sequiturs"
OK. lets rewind.
Phat writes:
Anyone who doubts the bedrock value of hard assets (Land, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Oil, Natural Gas, etc) need only ask Europe what they think as they shiver this Winter.
What I meant was Bidens lame attempt to fight the war in Ukraine through weaponizing the US Dollar. The dollar is and was far too shaky to weaponize against such a big and powerful country. Russia is no banana republic. *sheer American arrogance*
Dalio mentioned in his theory of the great cycles of empires that the transition to the next one is usually marked with a war. The Ukraine war is keeping the United States busy flaunting our diminishing power while China prepares to assume theirs.
China is good cop. Putin is bad cop.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Theodoric, posted 12-22-2022 1:52 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 74 of 174 (904326)
12-27-2022 7:49 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by Taq
12-22-2022 4:25 PM


Re: Benefits of Fiat Currency
I note that channel and will watch it. I can always learn something. Thanks.
Economics Explained
It already looks like a winning channel! Im watching the first(or latest) video now. This channel will keep me busy awhile.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Taq, posted 12-22-2022 4:25 PM Taq has not replied

  
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