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Author Topic:   Phat's Bookshelf
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 46 of 174 (904240)
12-23-2022 12:47 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Phat
12-23-2022 12:42 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Phat writes:
Yes, but I would say that bonds are less of a risk than gambling and that commodities are less of a risk than bonds in todays current environment.
How in the world are commodities less of a risk than bonds? Bonds come with a guaranteed interest rate. Show me a commodity with the same guarantee. It doesn't exist. The unadjusted price of commodities can go down, but bonds will not. At worst, the interest on bonds will be less than inflation. With commodities, the unadjusted price could go down, much less the inflation adjusted price.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Phat, posted 12-23-2022 12:42 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 67 by Phat, posted 12-27-2022 7:17 AM Taq has not replied

  
ringo
Member (Idle past 495 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


(1)
Message 47 of 174 (904241)
12-23-2022 1:16 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by Phat
12-23-2022 12:29 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Phat writes:
I am in the process of weighing ideas and in effect teaching myself.
I have mentioned to you before the dangers of self-education. Too much opportunity for confirmation bias.
You need to read things you don't want to read and consider ideas you don't want to consider. You need to BE ABLE to put ideas in your own words and to BE ABLE to put forth coherent arguments for counter-ideas before you decide to add something to your synthesis of ideas.

Come all of you cowboys all over this land,
I'll teach you the law of the Ranger's Command:
To hold a six shooter, and never to run
As long as there's bullets in both of your guns.
-- Woody Guthrie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by Phat, posted 12-23-2022 12:29 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.4


(1)
Message 48 of 174 (904246)
12-23-2022 1:59 PM


Bonds or Gold?
The current rate on a federal I bond is 6.89% right now, and the rate fluctuates with inflation. If you cash out before the 30 year term you lose the last 3 months of interest. So let's say an average of 6.5% interest over 2 years, losing the last 3 months so 1.75 years total.
A $10,000 I bond held over those two years would yield $11,137.50, by my math.
Gold was at $1862.31 per ounce on 12/22/20 and $1795.21 on 12/23/22. That's a reduction of 3.6%.
A $10,000 gold purchase held over those two years would yield $9,640.
Hmmm, which would have been the better investment?

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by Phat, posted 12-24-2022 9:09 AM Taq has replied
 Message 54 by Phat, posted 12-24-2022 9:27 AM Taq has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.8


(2)
Message 49 of 174 (904247)
12-23-2022 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Phat
12-23-2022 12:17 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Let's look at the History of major decisions and what ...
WTF you talking about? The subject I was speaking to was your question on why banks don't lend out their reserves.
That has fuck all to do with the laundry list of disjointed topics you responded to me with.
I answered your question. Banks can't lend out their reserves because they are bound by law not to! And the reason is the liquidity issues that caused bank failures all through the 1930s.
Don't you be telling me au contraire. I KNOW the history.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by Phat, posted 12-23-2022 12:17 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9277
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.3


(1)
Message 50 of 174 (904248)
12-23-2022 3:00 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Phat
12-23-2022 12:42 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Do you know what a bond is? Do you understand how it works and how they are valued? Are you truly this ignorant in economics or finances?

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Phat, posted 12-23-2022 12:42 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-23-2022 4:03 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4503
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.5


(1)
Message 51 of 174 (904251)
12-23-2022 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by Theodoric
12-23-2022 3:00 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Are you truly this ignorant in economics or finances?
Of course he is. The sugar rotted his brain.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by Theodoric, posted 12-23-2022 3:00 PM Theodoric has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by Phat, posted 12-24-2022 9:23 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 52 of 174 (904259)
12-24-2022 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by Taq
12-23-2022 1:59 PM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
The bonds worth are calculated in U.S. Dollars. The US Dollar has lost purchasing "power" relative to earlier times nearly always. But thats not the main point.
random ramblings:
There is no easy way out of the corner the Fed has backed us into.
Keep in mind that the Fed doesn’t exist to protect YOU or YOUR money – like some folks might think.
The Fed is there to protect banks and the government.
The decisions they make are all about next quarter’s numbers… or the next election.
Because of this, the Fed’s policies tend to be short-sighted in nature.
They’re not thinking about the effects their actions will have 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road.
And so, the way we see it… the Fed has put temporary band-aids on major wounds that needed more time to heal.
And today, that band-aid needs to be ripped off and get some air so it can heal.
I'm sure that my critics will want my own words. But first lets address the data concerning these bonds you talk about.
Yahoo Finance writes:
Recessions often prove more painful than anticipated because they can be self-reinforcing: Job losses reduce demand, spurring additional layoffs, for example. The extent of a recession depends on the scale of the economic imbalances that cause them.
My argument is evolving. I don't have a total grasp on the reality of finance, but I have studied the effect of commodity pricing as counter cyclical to the US Dollar and International Dollar (as global reserve currency.)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 12-23-2022 1:59 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Theodoric, posted 12-24-2022 12:54 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 83 by Taq, posted 12-27-2022 10:57 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 53 of 174 (904261)
12-24-2022 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by Tanypteryx
12-23-2022 4:03 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Not quite. My BS is 97 this morning. Time to eat.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-23-2022 4:03 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 54 of 174 (904262)
12-24-2022 9:27 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by Taq
12-23-2022 1:59 PM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
Taq writes:
The current rate on a federal I bond is 6.89% right now, and the rate fluctuates with inflation. If you cash out before the 30 year term you lose the last 3 months of interest. So let's say an average of 6.5% interest over 2 years, losing the last 3 months so 1.75 years total.

A $10,000 I bond held over those two years would yield $11,137.50, by my math.
Does your math adjust for inflation? And does our collective math adjust for the fact that the US Dollar, though playing bedrock for the rest of the planet, is no bedrock. It is merely the strongest among equals.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by Taq, posted 12-23-2022 1:59 PM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by dwise1, posted 12-24-2022 6:18 PM Phat has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9277
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 55 of 174 (904263)
12-24-2022 12:54 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by Phat
12-24-2022 9:09 AM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
Are you truly this stupid? Or are you just a troll?

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Phat, posted 12-24-2022 9:09 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5972
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 4.4


(1)
Message 56 of 174 (904265)
12-24-2022 6:18 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by Phat
12-24-2022 9:27 AM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
Does your math adjust for inflation?
Time for you conduct a reality check, especially given that this subtopic compares bonds and gold.
I'm not a trained economist nor do I play one on TV, but obviously inflation would affect the value of all forms of investment equally, including bonds and commodities like gold. Bringing up inflation does nothing to differentiate between investing in bonds versus investing in gold adds nothing to the discussion ... except that in Taq's Message 48 to which you are not quite replying he did point to gold having lost value whereas a bond's increase in value is guaranteed by the bond, so if we also factor in inflation's effects on the return on investment (ROI) in "absolute dollars" gold would still lose out to bonds.
By my understanding, nobody can accurately predict rates of inflation, so it makes no sense to try to specify in an investment contract the effects of inflation on the "absolute dollar" value of an investment's interest rate returns. Yes, there will be such an effect as there is to everything in practical economics, but it's not normally factored in in highly specific terms.
The closest use for the accounting of inflation that I can think of is in Cost Of Living Adjustments (COLA) such as are performed periodically for certain sources of income; eg, Social Security benefits, military pay.
Both of those COLAs come to mind for me because both affect me. My military retirement pay is a fixed percentage of the active duty pay for my paygrade and time in service (as of when I retired, I think, but I don't know because I served far past the maximum TIS for my paygrade); this year we got an 8.7% increase as opposed to the usual 1% to 2% increases of the past (I seem to recall an occasional 0%). I haven't heard yet what we'll get for Social Security, but if it's also 8.7% then I will be very disappointed with how they are treating and shortchanging our troops.
The Republicans keep trying to cut Social Security benefits. COLAs are based on such economic indices as the consumer price index. I cannot find the details on this, but Social Security COLAs used to use an index which more accurately tracked cost increases for what seniors are more concerned with, but the Republican Congress replaced that with another index (Consumer Price Index, I would assume) which deals with other concerns and which provides lower increases in benefits.
Breaking News!
Having just written the above, I looked into US Military Pay on Wikipedia, which took me to the other index, Cost of Living Index. There I found this discussion:
quote:
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a price index that is based on the idea of a cost-of-living index. The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explains the differences:
The CPI frequently is called a cost-of-living index, but it differs in important ways from a complete cost-of-living measure. BLS has for some time used a cost-of-living framework in making practical decisions about questions that arise in constructing the CPI. A cost-of-living index is a conceptual measurement goal, however, not a straightforward alternative to the CPI. A cost-of-living index would measure changes over time in the amount that consumers need to spend to reach a certain utility level or standard of living. Both the CPI and a cost-of-living index would reflect changes in the prices of goods and services, such as food and clothing that are directly purchased in the marketplace; but a complete cost-of-living index would go beyond this to also take into account changes in other governmental or environmental factors that affect consumers' well-being. It is very difficult to determine the proper treatment of public goods, such as safety and education, and other broad concerns, such as health, water quality, and crime that would constitute a complete cost-of-living framework.

 
Also, when I spoke above of "absolute dollars", I know of no such metric, but rather know that it must exist as a reference point. For example, we often hear of the current cost of certain things in terms of "in 1960 dollars" or of past costs in terms of "today's dollars". So such a metric must exist, otherwise cost comparisons across time ("diachronically") would be impossible. I just don't know what it's offcially called or how it's officially defined.
Examples abound as we research the past. For example, misled temporally by the movie, 1941, I searched through the Los Angeles newspapers of December 1941 for coverage of the Battle of Los Angeles (AKA "Great Los Angeles Air Raid") which actually took place 24–25 February 1942. Along the way I saw many grocery store and restaurant ads. The only one I remember (that research was in the mid-80's) was a diner which offered a complete turkey dinner for $0.25.
Similarly, while rewatching the beginning of The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951 -- the year I was born, BTW), in the background I saw that a child's haircut was 25 cents. Google tells me that it's now about $30 (as a senior, mine is $20).
In the 60's, I saw that a grocery clerk made $400 a month. That was my older sister's husband's pay and they lived in a nice new apartment paying $100 a month rent, which was within the standard budget estimate of a quarter of your income going to housing. Then their first house cost them $18,000 -- The Game of Life at that time had the price of a house at $15,000. As I was approaching graduation (Class of '69 -- sounds more fun that it was), the big housing boom of Orange County, Calif., was underway with houses selling for $86,000. Not even out on my own yet, all I could think was that I could never possibly afford to buy a house. Now my condo valued at about $450,000 is paid off and that older sister and brother-in-law of mine have just sold their house for just over $1 million.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by Phat, posted 12-24-2022 9:27 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by AZPaul3, posted 12-24-2022 8:57 PM dwise1 has not replied
 Message 77 by Phat, posted 12-27-2022 8:17 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8593
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.8


(1)
Message 57 of 174 (904267)
12-24-2022 8:57 PM
Reply to: Message 56 by dwise1
12-24-2022 6:18 PM


Re: Bonds or Gold?
Also, when I spoke above of "absolute dollars", I know of no such metric, but rather know that it must exist as a reference point.
I don't think so. Reference points for relative values is ... relative. That's why we reference things in 1990 dollars, 1960 dollars or some other year's dollar. Your choice depending on the political spin you want to give the comparison you're looking to make.
I could suppose one "absolute dollar" metric might be the original dollar as authorized by congress in 1791. It was minted in gold or silver. Gold content was required to be 1.505 grams.
So back then a dollar was worth 1.505 g fine gold. Today 1 gram of fine gold is valued at $57.81 per gram. The original dollar is the gold valued equivalent to $87.00 today. So, in absolute (1792) dollars your $10 lunch cost 11¢. Someone should check my math.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by dwise1, posted 12-24-2022 6:18 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9277
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 58 of 174 (904268)
12-24-2022 10:06 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by Phat
12-22-2022 6:32 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Still waiting. Or are you ready to admit you have no clue what you are babbling about and are just repeating crap you saw on youtube.
There are five times as many dollars in circulation as there used to be.
Source? Time frame? Are we talking months, years, decades? Do you actually have any idea what you are talking about?
Do you mean M1 or M2 or something else?

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by Phat, posted 12-22-2022 6:32 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 59 by Phat, posted 12-25-2022 4:30 AM Theodoric has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18388
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 59 of 174 (904269)
12-25-2022 4:30 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Theodoric
12-24-2022 10:06 PM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
Im not a scholar. I dont use footnotes or references. 90% of the information that I repeat is gleaned from books and written source materials, but since I never take nor never have taken notes I dont have written sources. IIRC, the money growth was M1. Let me search a bit and see if i can find anything:
Or are you ready to admit you have no clue what you are babbling about
I have been told by people who actually know me that I am intuitive. While I readily admit that I have little if any solid objective evidence, this is irrelevant to what may turn out to be a closer approximation of future scenarios than you even fear in your worst imagination. In which case I hope I'm wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Theodoric, posted 12-24-2022 10:06 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 60 by Theodoric, posted 12-25-2022 10:15 AM Phat has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9277
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 60 of 174 (904271)
12-25-2022 10:15 AM
Reply to: Message 59 by Phat
12-25-2022 4:30 AM


Re: Videos, Books, and Propaganda
In other words you don't have a clue. Start with the 5 times claim. Here is a hint. If you can't back what you say with facts and data don't say it. "I heard" or "people say" is for liars and charlatans.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 59 by Phat, posted 12-25-2022 4:30 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-25-2022 10:59 AM Theodoric has replied
 Message 78 by Phat, posted 12-27-2022 8:35 AM Theodoric has replied

  
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