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Author Topic:   The Changing World Order
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 1 of 302 (902534)
11-25-2022 12:30 AM


Full Name: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
I just received(ordered“) this book on Audible and also am having a paper copy sent to me. Ray Dalio explains the modern economy and the lessons learned from observing the past 2 world orders (Dutch and British) and the up-and-coming replacement for the United States, which will be China.
He studied this subject extensively and has a firm grasp of reality regarding observable and repeatable economic trends.
Amazon says this about him:
A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times
From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.
A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.
In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.
We can discuss it more once I've finished listening to it and reading it. This man is no con.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Phat has replied
 Message 3 by ringo, posted 11-25-2022 11:43 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 4 of 302 (902608)
11-25-2022 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 10:33 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
Read the whole thing. Really shows what a vapid ass Dalio is.
Though I doubt that you listened to his presentation. You could care less, especially once that you realized he was a wealthy investor with what you see as an ego.
But this is so like you. You lump bitcoin and gold in the same category, never having understood the idea that the US dollar never really did (nor could) replace Gold.
Theo writes:
So, do you really need to fetishize history in order to be a successful investor? Surely not, judging by the great amounts of wealth that have been made by moneymen with a less Daliolithic outlook. With his overdrawn generalizations and all-encompassing abstractions, Mr. Dalio strains much too hard to persuade us that he’s not just a wildly successful businessman. He craves recognition as a polymath who has constructed a model for how the world works and as an all-American Renaissance man in the age of Xi Jinping.
The "great amounts" of wealth that have been created will in fact vanish just as quickly. Unlike you, Dalio knows that the dollar will tank. It will be a hard lesson for many, but it has in fact happened many times in History.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:18 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 5 of 302 (902609)
11-25-2022 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by ringo
11-25-2022 11:43 AM


A Legend In His Own Mind
Of course. Labels are applied by fans, not facts. You could be the legendary ringo of Saskatchewan in my mind, but the facts show that you are just another member of the peanut gallery. And I could be an honest and good Christian according to my own ego and my Pastor, but the facts show that I do not listen to what Jesus said in many cases.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by ringo, posted 11-25-2022 11:43 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by ringo, posted 11-26-2022 11:06 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 6 of 302 (902612)
11-25-2022 3:18 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 10:33 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
He is no economist.
Show me one economist who actually knows what he is talking about, apart from Galbraith who was a wise man. I predict that the Federal Reserve economists will be proven historically and tragically to be wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 10:33 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:21 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 12 of 302 (902647)
11-26-2022 2:54 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 4:18 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
Theo writes:
You understand nothing about economics and monetary theory.
Neither do you. It is evident. Stick to archeology and whatever else it is you do professionally. 50% of your net worth will likely get wiped out within 2 years. But of course you will never listen to a troll under a rock! You will learn.
The dollar has replaced gold. Gold is pegged to the dollar not the other way around.
The main reason that Nixon decoupled gold and the dollar was that more dollars were being printed above and beyond the gold that backed them. Other nations, not trusting the value of the dollar, preferred gold as payment. The United States was losing its gold reserves slowly but surely. When Nixon uncoupled the dollar and gold, many analysts, including a young Dalio on the NYSE, expected stocks to fall. Instead, the values went up as well as the value of the unshackled gold. It makes no sense for gold to be pegged to the dollar since the dollar can be and is inflated through the creation of more of it on demand. the dollar was pegged to gold in the twenties when FDR called in all of the gold and revalued the gold from $20.00 an ounce to $35.00 an ounce. Where on earth did you get the idea that gold was pegged to the dollar? That is the most outlandish claim and an example of the sheer audaciousness of your sources.
Each Empire (Dutch, British, and American) has at one time had the dominant global reserve currency. The Dutch Guilder crashed when the empire did. The British Pound also tanked at the end of WW II when Britain could not pay its debts. A similar fate awaits the Dollar, although the government is trying to keep the Dollar club afloat globally. It is at its high right now, coincidentally as war is being waged in Ukraine. You of course won't believe that the almighty dollar can crash, but we have inflated it and debased it for far too long.
AddByEdit: Answer me this: What backs the Dollar, apart from the faith of the people? Never in History has a currency in a declining empire lasted very long. The Dollar, like the secular humanist idea of authority, is but a puff of smoke and vapor.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:18 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by ringo, posted 11-26-2022 11:11 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 15 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 11:21 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 47 by Taq, posted 11-28-2022 11:30 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 18 of 302 (902675)
11-26-2022 2:42 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by ringo
11-26-2022 11:32 AM


People In Glass Houses...
Build your house upon the Rock. The sand shifts too much.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by ringo, posted 11-26-2022 11:32 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by ringo, posted 11-27-2022 1:47 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 19 of 302 (902676)
11-26-2022 3:02 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Tanypteryx
11-25-2022 6:37 PM


Phat Chance he knows anything!
Tanypteryx writes:
Plus inflation is a global rather than a national economic condition right now, caused by interrupted production and distribution of products globally because of a global pandemic. Phat is completely clueless about pretty much everything that he thinks he's an expert in like the economy, finance, government, politics, history, and civilization
None of us are experts in these areas, but all of us can read.
Methinks that you question my intelligence, which is fair game, I suppose. I never finished college but I do read a lot of stuff from many different sources. I can honestly say that no, I am not an expert in any of those disciplines. The difference between you and me is that I do not trust human motive and nature from either political or ideological side. None are righteous. You, on the other hand, only vilify Republicans. And I don't trust the motives, intentions, and actions of the Federal Reserve or the current administration, though Trump was no better. ​

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Tanypteryx, posted 11-25-2022 6:37 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 5:34 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 23 by Tangle, posted 11-26-2022 6:18 PM Phat has replied
 Message 31 by ringo, posted 11-27-2022 1:54 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 20 of 302 (902679)
11-26-2022 3:18 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Theodoric
11-25-2022 4:21 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
I did some basic reading on Robert Reich. He is pro-union and mentions the need for strong unions. I like him already!
Robert Reich Issues a Warning in 'Supercapitalism' That's from an NPR book review.
Robert Reich:
"If we think that we can just treat companies as moral beings and yell at them ... for not being more socially responsible ... we are diverting our attention from the hard work of democracy — of making laws and rules that reflect our real values."
The key is cooperation or consensus between the two political parties. It is impossible to simply get rid of one of them.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 11-25-2022 4:21 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 22 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 5:36 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 25 of 302 (902706)
11-27-2022 1:05 AM
Reply to: Message 23 by Tangle
11-26-2022 6:18 PM


Re: Phat Chance he knows anything!
I never had any bitcoins. Do I get to ask you guys some nosey questions?

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by Tangle, posted 11-26-2022 6:18 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 26 of 302 (902707)
11-27-2022 1:10 AM
Reply to: Message 22 by Theodoric
11-26-2022 5:36 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
I don't know where you ever got the idea that I don't care about anyone else, just because I do not believe in a collective. Private property is a right that I as an American enjoy. That does not mean that I envy you for yours.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 22 by Theodoric, posted 11-26-2022 5:36 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 27 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 10:43 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 28 of 302 (902735)
11-27-2022 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 27 by Theodoric
11-27-2022 10:43 AM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
That's your assumption and conclusion. The argument, primarily directed at ringo, is that a government has no right to utilize everyone's money in any emergency except what they legally collect in taxes. Taxes can never be confiscatory, even if the planet was starving. I am not saying fuck off to everyone on the planet. I am simply defending the right to private property and the ideal that nobody should be required to become a victim of a digital currency system that, in a crisis, could institute a bail-in to save a population or a bank.
Im not sure what Galbraith or Friedman would say, but Robert Reich may likely disagree with me....I dunno.
The peanut gallery might bring up the point that nothing like this has ever been proposed, but my point is that the system is now being set up so that in a crisis, such an action could be taken, given an authoritarian administration (of either political side)

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 10:43 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 11:28 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 32 by ringo, posted 11-27-2022 2:02 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 33 of 302 (902787)
11-27-2022 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by ringo
11-27-2022 2:02 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
ringo writes:
You have said repeatedly that you don't want to be equal with the poor.
Financially? Certainly not. And if we took an honest poll, virtually none of the conservatives and a majority of the liberals wouldn't want to be "equal" with the poor either.
As humans, we are all equal.
As for our livelihoods and personal finance, nobody wants to be poor.
Now I suppose you will bring up the philosophy of how a rising tide lifts all boats.
And as I have told you many, many, many times, that is all I ever advocate.
Lets say we had a bad economic downturn. Let's say that people in the US were actually starving. Let's say the government (of, by and for the people, right?) mandated 60% taxes across the board. My point is that you would consider it a fair game (and legal if your 3 peeps were in power) You will now say how dare I prefer to have a private property while my neighbors starve. My response? Feeding them is up to me...not to a kum ba yah government. Of course you dont see the connection. You once thought satan had a bum rap!

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by ringo, posted 11-27-2022 2:02 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 4:17 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 35 by DrJones*, posted 11-27-2022 4:53 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 37 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 7:14 PM Phat has replied
 Message 49 by Taq, posted 11-28-2022 11:39 AM Phat has replied
 Message 74 by ringo, posted 12-04-2022 2:37 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 38 of 302 (902835)
11-27-2022 8:43 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by Theodoric
11-27-2022 7:14 PM


Re: Phat's adoration of the wealthy continues
No. It's above my pay grade.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 7:14 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by Theodoric, posted 11-28-2022 9:45 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 39 of 302 (902836)
11-27-2022 8:49 PM
Reply to: Message 36 by Theodoric
11-27-2022 7:14 PM


capital gains
One can legally avoid capital gains if they sell small amounts of commodities at a time. Bidens push for digital currency may mean that even small transactions can be tracked.
So far the tX liability still won't affect smaller transactions. I believe the threshold is $3000.00.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 7:14 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by Theodoric, posted 11-27-2022 9:59 PM Phat has replied
 Message 41 by Tanypteryx, posted 11-27-2022 11:39 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 75 by ringo, posted 12-04-2022 2:42 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18343
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 44 of 302 (902875)
11-28-2022 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 42 by Theodoric
11-28-2022 8:04 AM


Back On Topic?
Authoritarian Theodoric writes:
We already know that Phat thinks it is ok to cheat on taxes.
Why don't you define what cheating is? I did a bit of research.
Making personal accusations such as that is against forum rules, but then again, you only expect me to follow forum rules.
We are drifting off of the topic in this thread anyway. You are free to start a new thread on Capital Gains. I researched it and may comment in your thread if you keep your accusations and nosey questions about my personal life out of it.
Ray Dalio has taught me a bit about global financial history, but since I'm sure that you know more about it than he does, perhaps we can continue talking about it in this thread.

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” - Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You (1894).
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--Percy
Nor are Democrats the best party or the only one we should have. -Phat,2022 addressing The Peanut Gallery.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by Theodoric, posted 11-28-2022 8:04 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by Theodoric, posted 11-28-2022 12:30 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 76 by ringo, posted 12-04-2022 2:46 PM Phat has not replied

  
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