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Author | Topic: The War in Europe | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Percy writes: Given the way you responded it seems possible that it may not have come across that I was just using sarcasm to poke fun at some positions expressed in this thread that have already been proven wrong. Us Brits invented sarcasm, we can detect it even when the author doesn't know it's there, so yeh, I did twig that.
This was a reference to earlier claims about how effective the sanctions already were. And sanctions do not take years. They effectively take forever. Countries inevitably find ways around them, they find other trading partners, they find ways to live with them. And the sanctioners gradually lose discipline and interest, not to mention finance the sanctioned country by continuing to do business with them for essential goods. Isn't the ruble worth more today than before the sanctions? Sanctions have the best chance of a serious impact in their early stages because the sudden changes are disruptive and destabilizing. After that their impact wanes. Are there any examples of sanctions against a major country having immediate effect? I doubt Russia's economy will ever recover, it will sustain long term harm - it's not as if it's a wealthy country now.
ince you now think that sanctions take a long time, what is it you think is trashing the Russian economy? Typically wartime spending (any deficit spending, really) is stimulative to an economy, so since it's only been months and not the years you say sanctions require, what is doing it? War time spending is a stimulus? Really? My parents told me that there was still food rationing in the UK up 'til 1954. We only paid off our war debt to you guys in 2006. There's a difference between participating in a foreign war as a visitor and investor, and being invaded or invading a country. Russia is spending almost $1bn per day on the war and its economy is forecast to shrink between 7 and 15% next year. It's a rubbish economy anyway, about the size of Spain and less effective. The main issue is that Putin couldn't care less how the Russians suffer, our sanctions are more about deterring others and reducing his ability to fund his war.
Someone here was arguing that the nuclear threat meant we couldn't meaningfully help Ukraine. No idea who that was, as far as I remember most were saying we could give arms but not put boots on the ground. To my mind we didn't do enough fast enough and dithered over giving long range missile systems that could be argues to be attacking rather than defensive. That was nonsense. Someone here was arguing that invading a NATO country would be suicide, That would be me, because it would be suicide for Putin.
so I merely pointed out that some NATO countries are very alarmed about the Russian threat, e.g. Every NATO country is alarmed that's why Finland and Sweden are joining NATO and the West is pouring troops and arms into NATO member countries. It would still be suicide for Putin to invade a NATO country.
I don't think you get it. Ditto.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Percy writes: Sure you did. Are you sure you're a Brit? You seem to think that you can know more about what I think and who I am than I do. Ignoring your purely argumentative stuff, your point on the Russian ruble is interesting. It's high now mostly because of the price of oil - it's selling less because of sanctions but the price is higher. But its economy as a whole is in enormous difficulty, it' now a Potemkin economy, selling to itself. Russia's ruble hit its strongest level in 7 years despite massive sanctions. Here's why
If by "Putin" you mean the end of Putin's rule in Russia and not Russia itself, are you sure that's what you said? Engaging in a bit of revisionism, are we? I've tried to explain this to you several times, I'm not starting over. I'll just repeat; invading a NATO country would be suicide for both Russia and Putin. Pretty bloody obviously. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Just out of interest, what do YOU think would happen if Putin sent his tanks into a NATO country?
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Phat writes: I think it would be fair game for NATO to take them out via airpower. Russia cant match us in the skies. Russia loses the air war. Then what does it do?Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Percy writes: There'd be a response, but I know I'd only be guessing at the specifics and the scale Speaking of vague ambiguities... But yes, there's be a response and then a counter-response and unless Putin retreats the world trickles eventually into total war in Europe. Which would be suicide for Putin (and bad for everyone). So he ain't going to do it. We hope.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
NATO forces outnumber and outclass Russian forces at almost every level by orders of magnitude. It has 5 times as many aircraft as Russia.
As of 2022, NATO had approximately 3.37 million active military personnel compared with 1.35 million active military personnel in the Russian military. The collective military capabilities of the 30 countries that make up NATO outnumber Russia in terms of aircraft, at 20,723 to 4,173, and in naval power, with 2,049 military ships, to 605. Russia's ground combat vehicle capacity is more competitive, however, with 12,420 units, to 14,682. The combined nuclear arsenal of the United States, United Kingdom, and France amounted to 6,065 nuclear warheads, compared with Russia's 6,255. NATO Russia military comparison 2022 | Statista Not that it's simply numbers that matter of course and no one here has the faintest clue about how such a battle would be carried out. But it would take a new level of insanity for Putin to invade a NATO country, it would mobilise Europe and probably end in nuclear conflagration. Suicidal.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Phat writes: What is wrong with you? I wasn't vague. I was admitting I don't know. You don't know either. The difference between us is that you think you know when you don't, and you abuse people who try to determine if any actual knowledge or reasoning lies behind your seeming certainty about what are at heart unknowable things full of variables and uncertainty. This is becoming very boring. Neither of us know anything about military strategy, we're both guessing about what would happen when. My position is that Russia driving tanks into a NATO country could ultimately be the beginning of ww3.Only a mad man would do it because it would be an obviously suicidal thing to do. I have no idea what you think would happen.
quote Can I take this pronouncement to the bank?
I think they'd be as confused by that as you seem to be.
Does it really not occur to you that this is just one of many, many, many ways things could play out? Um...yes, strangely that had occurred to me. And what does "suicide for Putin" mean? Are you using "Putin" as just another way of referring to Russia, because until these last couple posts it was Russia you said would be committing suicide, not Putin. If you do mean Putin the man, then by suicide do you mean he'd lose his position of power in Russia? Something else? For god's sake man, it's a metaphor, work it out. Do you think that I'm imagining Putin in the first tank across the border? Russia could not possibly succeed in invading a NATO country and in all likelihood it would result in the end of Putin one way or another too. The reality is that NATO provides a deterrent for Russian aggression. Do you really think I've missed this point? Could that be the reason that I keep saying that Putin will not drive a single tank or put a single boot in NATO territory?
The deterrent isn't because a Russian attack on NATO would result in their or their leader's suicide, whatever that means. The deterrent is because NATO power is sufficient to thwart any Russian military effort against NATO countries. No shit! Well I never! Who knew etc etc. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Phat writes:
And yet that's exactly what you do sound like.
I dont mean to sound like a whacky conspiracy theory advocate, but I stand by my gut instinct over who has the correct explanations
From what I know of you Phat, your gut doesn't have much of a track history to be proud of does it?Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
The Ukrainians have been making significant progress in recent days and Russia looks increasingly weakened. I just heard a UK general saying that there's a real chance of Ukraine actually winning this war - not this year though, we're heading into winter.
His opinion though is that in order to get long term protection Ukraine needs to be accepted as members of NATO. I wonder if the West is prepared to go that far. Looks like I'm going to lose my bet with Percy about Sweden and Norway joining NATO by the end of summer though. It's all gone very quiet on that front.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed. |
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Putin's talking about nuclear weapons now and calling up 300,000 civilians - he's getting desperate.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Biden is saying that the missile didn't originate in Russia, which implies that he knows a lot more about it than he's saying. The BBC has just said that there was a AWACS in the air at the time tracking the latest attacks so there's reason to think he does.
NATO is clearly talking it down and it's fairly clear that targeting a farm in a NATO country isn't likely to be a deliberate Russian tactic but Poland is asking for an Article 4 meeting. Ukraine is asking for NATO air support which they won't get but they may get more equipment as a result.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Biden has just agreed to send Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine. Better late than never I suppose. I wonder how many? They need a lot.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed. |
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Tomorrow Finland will become the 31st member of NATO. Took longer than I anticipated but they say that it's not much over a year - therefore lightning fast as these things go.
Sweden still stuck by a Turkish objection, but expected to become member number 32 in a couple of months. I think I owe Percy something but can't be bothered to find out.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Looks like Ukraine's 'spring offensive' has started. God knows what happens next.
Just heard an ex US General say that "since the early 90s Russia has either crushed popular rebellion or changed the borders in Europe eight times, by force - it's got to stop. [...] this is where it can stop. I hope he's right.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed. |
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Tangle Member Posts: 9509 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
woh, some sort of coup in Russia. Where is this going?
Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny' - BBC News Edited by Tangle, . Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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