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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 646 of 995 (893431)
04-13-2022 10:57 AM
Reply to: Message 645 by Percy
04-13-2022 8:57 AM


Given the dearth of NATO troops and armaments in the Baltic States and no NATO bases at all, the Russian army would swarm over the Baltic states and present the west with a fait accompli.
Do you think they could do this without months of troop movements to the baltic borders without notice? Would you then expect NATO to not react at all?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 645 by Percy, posted 04-13-2022 8:57 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 647 by Percy, posted 04-13-2022 12:30 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 648 by Tangle, posted 04-13-2022 12:31 PM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 647 of 995 (893447)
04-13-2022 12:30 PM
Reply to: Message 646 by AZPaul3
04-13-2022 10:57 AM


AZPaul3 writes:
Do you think they could do this without months of troop movements to the baltic borders without notice? Would you then expect NATO to not react at all?
I think you may be forgetting the position I've outlined in my messages in this thread, including the message you're replying to where I quoted from that editorial that I said echoed my own feelings. For instance, it asked "Do we really fight for Lithuania?" That's a serious question that will get asked should Russia threaten Lithuania, especially if Trump is back in office at the time.
But my main point was that NATO doesn't scare Putin. Putin doesn't believe Russia would be committing suicide by attacking a NATO member country. Also recall everything I said earlier about softening up a targeted country first. One avenue is political change resulting in a Kremlin friendly government or leader, like Lukashenko in Belarus, Orbán in Hungary, or Erdoğan in Turkey. If Putin could help achieve a Kremlin friendly leader in the US like he did in 2016 with Trump, he could do it anywhere.
The Russian military is not a clown car. The Baltics have good reason to be fearful of Russia, especially given the possibility of a second Trump administration in 2025, friendly to Russia and skeptical of NATO.
A not uncommon opinion amongst foreign policy experts is that it was a mistake to admit former Soviet republics and vassal states into NATO because of how provocative it would be to Russia, that eventually there would be a price to pay. They're wrong because when you have someone like Putin there's always a price to pay. Appeasement only delays it, not avoids it.
Russia has no special status that entitles it to a buffer zone of vassal states surrounding it, as it seems to be demanding. Russia's population is a mere 144 million. Indonesia is nearly twice as big, the US is more than twice as big, India and China are each nearly 10 times as big, yet none of these countries are surrounded by vassal states whose governments they control. Why should Russia get to claim this privilege? Because when it was the largest republic in the Soviet Union it was the way the Soviet Union did things? Because it has a large nuclear arsenal? I don't think so.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 646 by AZPaul3, posted 04-13-2022 10:57 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 650 by AZPaul3, posted 04-13-2022 4:26 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 648 of 995 (893448)
04-13-2022 12:31 PM
Reply to: Message 646 by AZPaul3
04-13-2022 10:57 AM


Just heard that both Sweden and Finland are now applying to be NATO members. That's gonna piss off Putin. Helps to defend the Baltic too. It'll be done by June apparently.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 646 by AZPaul3, posted 04-13-2022 10:57 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 651 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 7:02 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 649 of 995 (893449)
04-13-2022 12:35 PM
Reply to: Message 644 by Percy
04-13-2022 8:42 AM


Percy writes:
Hungary is maintaining its joint military agreements with Russia and and is refusing to support the EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
He's a right royal, pain in the arse.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 644 by Percy, posted 04-13-2022 8:42 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 650 of 995 (893452)
04-13-2022 4:26 PM
Reply to: Message 647 by Percy
04-13-2022 12:30 PM


The Russian military is not a clown car. The Baltics have good reason to be fearful of Russia, especially given the possibility of a second Trump administration in 2025, friendly to Russia and skeptical of NATO.
Your entire scenario is dependent on Trump. If Trump is elected then we are going to have much bigger problems in this country and we probably won’t give a flip what is happening in Ukraine or the Baltic or Taiwan or North Korea.
Even still, we are years away from such an issue.
What position is Russia in right now?
The Russians are getting their butts kicked by a much smaller weaker force. The faults in the Russian military, and more so in their national command structure, have become apparent. The ruble has somewhat stabilized due to the actions of non-sanctioned Russian and sympathetic foreign banks. But the reports I’ve seen seem to indicate that bubble can’t last because the Russian trade economy and domestic supply and price disruptions are too severe.
Economies can be slow creatures. A lot of the trade sanctions put in place these past few weeks will not effectively hit for another few months. The Russian economy is in for more forceful shocks.
A resolution in Ukraine is not happening yet and I’m afraid it will be a while. Putin’s spearhead is broken. His military is bogged down in a war of attrition. To win, Putin must throw large numbers at a bad situation. That will deplete his military, his reserves and his supplies even farther.
Putin will not be turning his armies north toward the Baltic anytime soon. That is a no-brainer.
Yes, he could put together a conscript army with old cold war equipment to target the Baltic. He will need to move all that stuff up to the borders of the Baltic States and build a supply infrastructure set for invasion just like they did for their Ukraine deployment. This, I hope you agree, could not be done unnoticed by NATO, and in plenty of time to move in NATO assets to counter. A second-hand conscript army, supported by a failing economy, against a modern NATO.
Again, a no-brainer.
I have quite a bit of confidence that, if Putin puts a move against NATO anywhere he will lose even worse that he has in the Ukraine.
I am also confident that Putin knows this. Despite the bluster, he knows he has fucked up, knows what arrays against him in this newly vigilant, and now expanded, NATO. He doesn’t need to fear NATO because he knows he cannot challenge NATO. He can no longer achieve his destiny of restoring the Great Russian Empire.
From the analysts I’ve read I see a growing consensus that Putin is politically lost. He knows he is lost. He is purging to the gulag those he blames from his military and his staff.
His military is indeed a clown car. It has nothing left except cruelty, war crimes. His economy is about to take a precipitous plunge and his world image and prestige has suffered irreversible damage. He cannot move NATO to his will. Whatever outcome for the Ukraine I doubt that Tzar Vladimir the Condemned will have the time or the resources to add any more conquests to his tarnished legacy.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 647 by Percy, posted 04-13-2022 12:30 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 652 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 8:05 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 651 of 995 (893458)
04-14-2022 7:02 AM
Reply to: Message 648 by Tangle
04-13-2022 12:31 PM


Tangle writes:
Just heard that both Sweden and Finland are now applying to be NATO members. That's gonna piss off Putin. Helps to defend the Baltic too. It'll be done by June apparently.
This is probably a bit premature. Probably what is happening is that Sweden and Finland are beginning an internal dialogue about the possibility of applying to join NATO that has a better chance of a positive decision than past efforts. NATO members must still approve their applications.
Many seem willing to cede to Russian the ability to play the nuclear card to in order to have a significant say in western policy toward itself, and today we learn that Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO | Reuters. I'm not sure what the best analogy is. Maybe letting criminals with serious bombs have a say in the arming, staffing, and enforcement procedures of police.
I'll bet Russia wants more than just being able to dictate who joins NATO and what level of military support of Ukraine is permissible. I'll bet, for just one example, that Russia also believes NATO bases in Poland are just a bit too far eastward for their comfort. They'd probably prefer they be moved west a few hundred miles. We'd better do it, after all Putin does have that button.
A serious discussion of Soviet and NATO military power that doesn't involve the simplistically wrong claim that (paraphrasing) "Russia commits suicide (whatever that means) by so much as setting foot on NATO soil" might be helpful. Russia already commits many cyber and air violations of Baltic sovereignty, and many Russian troops are stationed nearby in Kaliningrad and Russia proper (How real is the Russian threat to the Baltic States? | New Europe, Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military).
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 648 by Tangle, posted 04-13-2022 12:31 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 653 by Tangle, posted 04-14-2022 10:11 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 652 of 995 (893459)
04-14-2022 8:05 AM
Reply to: Message 650 by AZPaul3
04-13-2022 4:26 PM


Good God, you're still pushing the same nonsense. See my previous messages for responses.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 650 by AZPaul3, posted 04-13-2022 4:26 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 654 by AZPaul3, posted 04-14-2022 12:33 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 653 of 995 (893461)
04-14-2022 10:11 AM
Reply to: Message 651 by Percy
04-14-2022 7:02 AM


Percy writes:
This is probably a bit premature. Probably what is happening is that Sweden and Finland are beginning an internal dialogue about the possibility of applying to join NATO that has a better chance of a positive decision than past efforts.
I listened quite carefully to what the two countries said in their joint announcements and to various NATO insiders. They has a process to go through but it now seems it's on a fast track and is inevitable.
I bet you a virtual chocolate egg that both are NATO members before the end of summer and half of one by end July.
NATO members must still approve their applications.
The view was that they'd be welcomed with open arms.
Many seem willing to cede to Russian the ability to play the nuclear card to in order to have a significant say in western policy toward itself, and today we learn that Russia warns of nuclear deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO. I'm not sure what the best analogy is. Maybe letting criminals with serious bombs have a say in the arming, staffing, and enforcement procedures of police.
I'll bet Russia wants more than just being able to dictate who joins NATO and what level of military support of Ukraine is permissible. I'll bet, for just one example, that Russia also believes NATO bases in Poland are just a bit too far eastward for their comfort. They'd probably prefer they be moved west a few hundred miles. We'd better do it, after all Putin does have that button.
Nobody cares what Russia wants/needs/demands anymore.
A serious discussion of Soviet and NATO military power that doesn't involve the simplistically wrong claim that (paraphrasing) "Russia commits suicide (whatever that means) by so much as setting foot on NATO soil" might be helpful. Russia already commits many cyber and air violations of Baltic sovereignty, and many Russian troops are stationed nearby in Kaliningrad and Russia proper (How real is the Russian threat to the Baltic States?, Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military).
No need to paraphrase Percy, any invasion by Russia onto NATO territory would be suicidal.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 651 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 7:02 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 655 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 12:52 PM Tangle has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 654 of 995 (893467)
04-14-2022 12:33 PM
Reply to: Message 652 by Percy
04-14-2022 8:05 AM


Good God, you're still pushing the same nonsense.
Everytime you posit Putin's abilities to threaten NATO in anyway will elicit the same response. The nonsense is on your side.
Btw, the two cites you gave in your Message 651 to Tangle are way old. Things have drastically changed since April 2021 and the points made in both of these articles are no longer valid. An entire war has been fought and lost since then.
Russia has lost its influence on the world stage. No one, especially the Europeans, listens to Russia anymore. They watch and sharpen their swords.
Putin has lost his military and his economy is falling. He is powerless to threaten NATO now and in whatever short future is left to him.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 652 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 8:05 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 657 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 1:25 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 655 of 995 (893468)
04-14-2022 12:52 PM
Reply to: Message 653 by Tangle
04-14-2022 10:11 AM


Tangle writes:
Percy writes:
This is probably a bit premature. Probably what is happening is that Sweden and Finland are beginning an internal dialogue about the possibility of applying to join NATO that has a better chance of a positive decision than past efforts.
I listened quite carefully to what the two countries said in their joint announcements and to various NATO insiders. They has a process to go through but it now seems it's on a fast track and is inevitable.
I'll be more direct and clear this time. You said, "Just heard that both Sweden and Finland are now applying to be NATO members," which was clearly wrong. I said, "Probably what is happening is that Sweden and Finland are beginning an internal dialogue about the possibility of applying to join NATO that has a better chance of a positive decision than past efforts," which was clearly correct.
It does seem to be reported with greater circumspection on this side of the pond. On your side of the pond I tried to check the Times, but it's behind a paywall now, so I checked the Telegraph. Sweden and Finland look set to join Nato after surge in support for military alliance reports:
quote:
Sweden has decided to join Nato, according to reports, with Finland likely to follow “within weeks”,...
On our side of the pond neither Sweden nor Finland have yet made a decision about whether to join NATO. Finland moves closer to joining NATO is about Finland from the Washington Post and reports them beginning a process, just as I said:
quote:
Finland will launch an immediate debate on joining NATO, Finnish officials said on Wednesday, as the country reconsiders its longtime stance outside the Western military alliance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that a decision would be made in coming weeks.
“There are different perspectives to apply [for] NATO membership or not to apply and we have to analyze these very carefully,” she said at a news conference in Stockholm, according to Reuters. “But I think our process will be quite fast.”
Marin spoke alongside Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who said Sweden was also reexamining its position outside NATO, after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine offensive plunged Europe into its most serious security crisis since World War II.
The ministers spoke as the Finnish government released an official assessment Wednesday of how Russia’s invasion has changed its security environment, beginning a process that has been expected to culminate in a request to join NATO.
Russia threatens to move nukes to Baltic region if Finland, Sweden join NATO reports that both Sweden and Finland are beginning a process, again, just as I said. Here's the portion about Sweden:
quote:
Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats, who have traditionally opposed NATO membership, have also said they will review their position in the coming months.
And this about both Finland and Sweden from the New York Times, which definitely doesn't believe Sweden has already made a decision as the Telegraph reported:
quote:
At a news conference in Stockholm on Wednesday with Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of Sweden, Prime Minister Sanna Marin of Finland said a decision on whether to apply for membership would be made “within weeks” as her government submitted a document to inform parliamentary debate on the issue.
“There are of course pros and cons with being a member of NATO, as there are pros and cons of other security choices,” Ms. Andersson said. But, she added, “I see no point in delaying this analysis or the process” over whether to join.
...
Opinion is shifting quickly in Sweden, too, with about 50 percent of people now in favor of joining NATO, rising to 62 percent if Finland joins, Ms. Wieslander said. In Finland, a recent poll had 68 percent in favor joining the alliance, rising to 77 percent if the president and government recommend it.
In Sweden, an all-party parliamentary group led by Foreign Minister Ann Linde is studying the issue, with a report due May 31. That deadline may be accelerated, because a decision to join NATO would have to pass Parliament with a solid majority, and that would depend on the Social Democrats shifting their position, Ms. Wieslander said.
I bet you a virtual chocolate egg that both are NATO members before the end of summer and half of one by end July.
I didn't comment on the likelihood that Finland and Sweden would become NATO members, but if we define "end of summer" as September 22, 2022, then I will take that bet. A country that has applied for NATO membership must be approved by all NATO members. I don't know about how easy/difficult approval will be to obtain from other countries, but here in the US if accession to NATO by Sweden and Finland is seen by the Republicans as a win for the Democrats, then they will fight it tooth and nail. Also, the Senate, the body that must approve the applications, will be in recess for the month of August.
The approval of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in 1998 by the US Senate was "the result of months of laborious efforts" with objections like increased costs to American taxpayers and poisoning relations with Russia (think Trump supporters, which is still most of the Republican Party).
Instead of a virtual chocolate egg for stakes, how about if I win you stop wasting space claiming a Russian invasion of a NATO country would be suicidal. It's actually a win for you since then you'd be wrong less often.
Nobody cares what Russia wants/needs/demands anymore.
Why do you keep saying things that are self-evidently not true? If it were true then we wouldn't daily read reports of NATO fears of provoking Russia by providing Ukraine with certain armaments, like modern fighter jets, or by actually putting NATO forces on the ground and in the air in Ukraine. The $800 million in additional assistance just approved for Ukraine still includes no fighter jets. What it adds are 155mm howitzers, radar defense systems and Claymore anti-personnel mines. Every little bit helps, but it's still just little bits. We're not acting like a Ukraine win is important to our own security. Current levels of assistance just make more likely a protracted conflict that results in the eastern Ukraine eventually being sliced away.
Of course, once Putin has eastern Ukraine he will forgo any further expansionist efforts and the Russian threat will be over. The appeasers will have won the day! And I've got this great bridge for sale...
No need to paraphrase Percy, any invasion by Russia onto NATO territory would be suicidal.
Why this persistent insistence on being wrong? Even Zelenskyy disagrees with you since he's not applying for NATO membership. He's instead using the promise of giving up on NATO membership as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 653 by Tangle, posted 04-14-2022 10:11 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 656 by Tangle, posted 04-14-2022 1:00 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 656 of 995 (893469)
04-14-2022 1:00 PM
Reply to: Message 655 by Percy
04-14-2022 12:52 PM


Ok the bet is a virtual chocolate egg that Finland and Sweden join NATO by 22nd September 2022.
I feel very safe. Almost as safe as perpetually betting against Faith's end of world predictions. That feels pretty safe.
As for the rest, we've done that, I haven't changed my mind just because you say different. But I really hope we won't find out who wins that chocolate egg.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 655 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 12:52 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 658 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 1:36 PM Tangle has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 657 of 995 (893471)
04-14-2022 1:25 PM
Reply to: Message 654 by AZPaul3
04-14-2022 12:33 PM


AZPaul3 writes:
Good God, you're still pushing the same nonsense.
Everytime you posit Putin's abilities to threaten NATO in anyway will elicit the same response.
Well, yes, that's the problem. You always respond with bald unsupported statements with no basis in fact.
Btw, the two cites you gave in your Message 651 to Tangle are way old. Things have drastically changed since April 2021 and the points made in both of these articles are no longer valid. An entire war has been fought and lost since then.
The articles are from 2020 and 2021. It's true that the security situation of the Baltic nations has changed since then, but only to become even more dire, as statements by their political leaders make clear. They feel at risk now more than ever, which was my point. The Baltic States are very vulnerable, NATO membership notwithstanding.
Russia has lost its influence on the world stage. No one, especially the Europeans, listens to Russia anymore. They watch and sharpen their swords.
Russia just said it would move nuclear arms to Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland joined NATO. It was reported in newspapers worldwide. Political leaders worldwide issued reactions. I think it's safe to say everyone's listening. For example, see The Baltic's first reaction to the Russian threat.
Putin has lost his military and his economy is falling.
What are you basing this on? His military is preparing a major operation in eastern Ukraine. They've recently made substantial progress in Mariupol which could fall soon. The Russian economy is not failing. Sanctions work only very slowly, if at all. Where do sanctions on Russia go from here? A foreign policy expert weighs in : NPR describes what can reasonably be expected for the Russian sanctions to accomplish.
He is powerless to threaten NATO now...
You can't keep waving NATO like a magic wand. It's just a military, not a superhero.
...and in whatever short future is left to him.
I think we all hope that Putin is pushed out of power, but it isn't something we can count on.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 654 by AZPaul3, posted 04-14-2022 12:33 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 658 of 995 (893472)
04-14-2022 1:36 PM
Reply to: Message 656 by Tangle
04-14-2022 1:00 PM


Tangle writes:
Ok the bet is a virtual chocolate egg that Finland and Sweden join NATO by 22nd September 2022.
A virtual chocolate egg? Who cares. If you don't like the stakes I suggested then suggest something else, but at least make them tangible and interesting. But before you make a bet with substance keep in mind that all 30 NATO member states must approve. How approval is conferred differs from country to country. Their political calendars vary all over the map. There will inevitably be political considerations. Hungary leans uncomfortably toward Russia anyway. Your confidence is hard to fathom.
As for the rest, we've done that, I haven't changed my mind just because you say different.
No one expects you to change your mind just on someone else's say so, but what can reasonably be expected is a response with evidence and/or argument instead of just "nyuh-uh," which is all you've apparently got.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 656 by Tangle, posted 04-14-2022 1:00 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 659 by Tangle, posted 04-14-2022 3:24 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


(2)
Message 659 of 995 (893475)
04-14-2022 3:24 PM
Reply to: Message 658 by Percy
04-14-2022 1:36 PM


Percy writes:
A virtual chocolate egg? Who cares.
It's a pride thing.
If you don't like the stakes I suggested then suggest something else, but at least make them tangible and interesting.
I usually offer my daughter but these days she doesn't take much notice of my commands.
But before you make a bet with substance keep in mind that all 30 NATO member states must approve. How approval is conferred differs from country to country. Their political calendars vary all over the map. There will inevitably be political considerations. Hungary leans uncomfortably toward Russia anyway. Your confidence is hard to fathom.
You find a lot about other people's thoughts about this war hard to fathom. Opinions are like that.
No one expects you to change your mind just on someone else's say so, but what can reasonably be expected is a response with evidence and/or argument instead of just "nyuh-uh," which is all you've apparently got.
Well I do have Article 5 but let's hope we never find out eh?

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 658 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 1:36 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 663 by Percy, posted 04-14-2022 5:55 PM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 660 of 995 (893476)
04-14-2022 5:11 PM


Gotcha!
Russian warship: Moskva sinks in Black Sea - BBC News

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 661 by AZPaul3, posted 04-14-2022 5:19 PM Tangle has not replied

  
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