The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign

The voters in the USA made their choice, the majority of Democrats prefer our current healthcare system regardless of the consequences as do nearly all Republicans.Still want to deny healthcare to "the least among us." Your precious DJIA may require it.

Both hubby and I support Medicare For All.

After watching the news and the press conferences it seems to me that the one person acting in a responsible and intelligent manner is Gov. Cuomo.Certainly more pro active and on the ball than Biden.Can we write him in for the remaining primaries?Enjoy

That seems to be the idea - Cuomo is getting tons of face time on the news, even Fox news. So far, he vehemently denies any desire to be president, but that's probably part of the plan. Biden is obviously less sharp than he used to be, that's not a put down, just a fact. Many people get Alzheimer's / dementia at a younger age than he is. He would be 78 by inauguration time, if elected. Other than one or two obscure 3rd party candidates, no one has ever attempted to run for a first term as president at that late age.Safe to say that the U.S. presidency is more a more stressful job than it has ever been in history. An excellent chance that Biden would die in office during his first term. If it is actually planned for Biden to be officially nominated as the Democrat candidate (which I doubt), there have got to be a lot of enthusiastic people lining up to be his VP, because everybody knows that the quickest way from relative obscurity to political stardom is to be the vice president when the president dies in office.Who else here wants to see Cuomo plugged in as Biden's replacement? Or would it be better for Biden to be propped up in the oval office while behind-the-scenes people call the shots?

The average life expectancy for a 77-year old male is 10 years. All this means is that 10 years is the most likely, e.g., 10 years is more likely than 9 or 11. I couldn't find anything about the steepness of the probability curve that would tell us things like how sharply the curve drops off after 10 years.--Percy

Posted to wrong thread.Edited by Percy, : Remove content.

Percy, that’s not how life expectancy is calculated. It takes all people who are 77 years old this year and then takes the number of those people who survive just one more year, number who survive just two more years. etc. and averages those life spans. Of course, those people haven’t actually died yet so the numbers are taken from a model that is base on prior years data. The parameters of that model are updated every year as new data (death statistics) becomes available. Until recently, that model has been found to be consistently slightly pessimistic but in the past couple of years has reversed to being slightly optimistic, and this is primarily due to drug (pain treatment) overdoses. For people already 77 years old, the curve of survival years looks somewhat like the tail of a gaussian distribution with fewer people surviving N+1 years than survive just N years. That curve has a very long tail and predicts that many of those people will survive well into their hundreds. The most important thing to note is that that life expectancy number is nothing more than an average number derived from an abstract model and has absolutely no relevance to any particular individual. That individual’s continued life span will depend on many personal factors such as current state of health, life style, risk behaviors, and probably most of all, luck (e.g., not stepping in front of an 18 wheeler).

I didn't describe how anything was calculated. Wasn't my explanation of the meaning of life expectancy correct? Would it be the same thing to say that each successive year is weighted by the number of people surviving to that age, then averaged?About probability curves, we may be talking about different ones. I read through your description several times and in the end couldn't decide what the probability was of on your vertical axis, probably just missing something, but in the end I wasn't sure.I was imagining a probability curve of years lived given a certain age, which would rise toward the most likely number of years and then drop off again. I was curious how rapidly the probabilities dropped off after that most likely value.--Percy

I would rather see a salamander high on Methamphetamine to be a replacement to Biden. I don't understand why the DNC has still not learned from their gross miscalculations from the last election. They conspired against Bernie then to plug in Clinton, who might as well be the devil incarnate to most people on earth, as their go to.Then they again politically assassinated anyone halfway competent to play the role as president and to beat Trump.Who did they choose? Creepy uncle Joe, who has fondness for inappropriately touching and fondling pubescent girls, cannot go five sentences without inserting some kind of stupid gaffe, and recently has the cognitive ability of a 4 year old. This is your guy to beat Trump???Trump will bury this guy alive, make him look so stupid on stage, and will rile Joe up so much that he'll probably resort to physically challenging Trump to a fist fight.This guy is such a disaster.Even supposing the majority of people hate Trump so much that they're willing to pick anyone against him, how competent do you think Biden will be as president? He can't even remember where he is half the time but he's going to run the country?Seems like one of two inevitabilities will occur. His cognition will degrade so much that he's all but removed from office for the safety and security of the United States or he will die in office, which means whoever is really pulling the strings in his administration had better pick wisely as to his vice president.I still can't believe these are our options for another election cycle.... a tyrannical megalomaniacal narcissist or a mentally challenged female fondler that flies off the handle.Congratulations, Democrats... you just got Donald Trump reelected twice. You have no one to blame but yourselves.

I recently saw part of a New Yorker piece by David Sedaris quoted (Shouts & Murmurs: Undecided By David Sedaris, New Yorker, 27 October 2008). Although written for the 2008 election (Obama/Biden v. O'Cain/Palin), his analogy is far more pertinent now:

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Then you’ll see this man or woman someone, I always think, who looks very happy to be on TV. Well, Charlie, they say, I’ve gone back and forth on the issues and whatnot, but I just can’t seem to make up my mind! Some insist that there’s very little difference between candidate A and candidate B. Others claim that they’re with A on defense and health care but are leaning toward B when it comes to the economy.

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I look at these people and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?

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To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. Can I interest you in the chicken? she asks. Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?

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To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

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I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?

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... 1976, ... The choice that year was between Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford. Most of my friends were going for Carter, but, as an art major, I identified myself as a maverick. That means an original, I told my roommate. Someone who lets the chips fall where they may. Because I made my own rules and didn’t give a damn what anyone else thought of them, I decided to write in the name of Jerry Brown, who, it was rumored, liked to smoke pot. This was an issue very close to my hearttoo close, obviously, as it amounted to a complete waste. Still, though, it taught me a valuable lesson: calling yourself a maverick is a sure sign that you’re not one.

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I wonder if, in the end, the undecideds aren’t the biggest pessimists of all. Here they could order the airline chicken, but, then again, hmm. Isn’t that adding an extra step? they ask themselves. If it’s all going to be chewed up and swallowed, why not cut to the chase, and go with the platter of shit?

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Ah, though, that’s where the broken glass comes in.

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The difference now is that for nearly four years now we have been dining on a platter of shit with broken glass, so we know what that's like.

I'm ecstatic with Biden.Ok, not my 1st thru 15th choice but he's not Trump and that is all that matters at this point.If you want to complain about the DNC and the insiders influencing the choice, well, it IS their party, not yours or mine or the people's.The Democrat elite, the controlling interests of the Democratic Party, look like they have chosen their candidate and the also-rans in the party appear to have accepted that choice.We are stuck, as usual, with a two party system that is controlled by the parties, not by "The People". That is a reality that is not going to change anytime soon. Certainly not by November.So now what? Waste your vote and stay home to sulk? That's pretty much what happened last time isn't it. Worked out real well for the nation and the world didn't it.Who do you want making decisions in the Oval Office? Joe Biden and his covey of Democratic Party advisors or that Orange Bastard who listens to no one but his own narcissistic fantasies?As I said, I am so happy to have a choice that is not Trump. I'll take it.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

IMHO, this is what happened - the Democrats needed a second coming of Obama or Bill Clinton. They had several possibilities, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Yang. But they were new to the game, while Sanders had so much popularity in his pocket left over from the 2016 campaign. It was Sanders who kept any of them from emerging as a front runner. While Sanders had the most adoration, he also had the most 'never Sanders' voters in the primaries. Those voters chose the most popular of the other candidates (a two term vice president) to get Sanders beaten. It worked, but now Biden's usefulness is largely over. I hope you're right, but I'm not that optimistic. There might not even be a presidential debate, Trump might refuse them considering the mike-cutting games, and other games that the mainstream media will use during any debates. They hate Trump 10 times worse than their news reporting ancestors hated Nixon 47 years ago. They are a BIG asset to any Democrat candidate. I'm sure they will. And whoever it is will have an excellent chance in a debate against Pence - Pence isn't as quick witted during hostile questioning as are many in politics, including Trump. Cheer up, Biden with a good vice president, the news media doing everything in their power to cover for him, and ANY downturn in world affairs including economic, medical, or any military action taken by anyone from now until November, will be skillfully blamed on Trump. And a lot of swing voters will swallow it.

My point is that I doubt very seriously that he can beat Trump and, even supposing he can, he is not competent to his own shoes let alone run the nation. What are you talking about? Trump suggests that we "inject ultraviolet light and powerful disinfectants" directly into the bloodstream. This man is clearly a goddamn genius!!!!But seriously though, I can't subscribe to the "anybody but ______" voting strategy. I would rather write in someone halfway competent than, again, going with the lesser of evils strategy. How has that worked out for us so far? There is a third option....... Seppuku.

Obama was new to the game also. He wasn't even a Senator for three years before coming seemingly out of nowhere to steal an election that most people thought Clinton had in the bag. That could have happened again until the DNC decided to politically assassinate any credible opposition to who they think poses the most formidable challenge to Trump. Joe Biden is an institution in American politics... This is why Obama picked him as VP. But his time has passed and he needs to retire. I'm beginning to suspect this is the DNC's strategy. He's a useful idiot to them. His cognition is just going to get worse with time and he'll probably die in office and they must know it. But he's the safest choice to beat Trump. They are probably banking on giving Biden an excellent running mate who, like Cheney, will be the one really pulling the strings and eventually, like LBJ, will take control of the White House.The people sensed something genuine in Sanders -- a rare trait among politicians. He has proven to be like Ron Paul and Ross Perot in their time -- dark horses that can siphon huge amounts of votes away while having the inability to actually win. This must be how the DNC views him and so they have politically assassinated him a second and final time. The Democrats greatest enemy is other Democrats. There is this dog-eat-dog mentality that they've adopted. If you don't check all the little social engineering boxes that they want, they'll turn on you in a heartbeat and smear you as "Alt-Right adjacent." They have underestimated how sick to death America is of political correctness. The country in fact wanted somebody with balls and who didn't play by the usual rules. This, along with Russian interference, is what secured Trump's victory.I am in an unusual position. In general I have never been a Democrat, never wanted to be a Democrat and never considered voting for a Democrat.... until Donald Trump came along. While I understand America's frustration with the AOC's of this world, a clear megalomaniac who is in this only for his own vanity is not the answer.I really, really liked Tulsi Gabbard. Level-headed, centrist, competent.... She wasn't far enough to the Right to win over lunatic Trump supporters and not far enough to the Left to ever be considered a contender by leftwing demagogues. After she smashed Kamala Harris she was summarily executed by the media and ushered out of the debates without just cause. She's actually in the middle of a lawsuit over it, but I digress. There is nothing to cheer for. This is basically as bad as Clinton/Trump for me... Its the worst possible scenario imaginable -- so surreal and cartoonish that you swear we're living inside of a parody.I still cannot believe this is real life... and still cannot believe how many people have rolled over, died, and accepted this fate.

Even I concur with that notion. And it is something Obama himself chimed in on in regards to 'cancel culture' and the incessant predilection of focusing on identity politics. The good news is I am seeing a paradigm shift in that regard. There seems to be a genuine pushback occurring and that manifested in the Democratic primary. I had honestly assumed Elizabeth Warren would be the nominee due to the focus to get a women elected president. But her performance in the debates and the lack of enthusiam around her seemed to seal her fate. The fixation on AOC also was beyond frustrating. I am sorry, but she is basically the Sarah Palin of the Democratic party. And placing her on an undeserved pedestal did the Democrats no favors.But it appears clearer heads are now prevailing within the Democratic party. They ended up going with the 'safe' candidate in Biden and I am seeing less and less focus on AOC or other members of 'The Squad'.Now the $64,000 dollar question is: who is the likely VP nominee? I think Sanders supporters would like to see him selected. But having two old men is likely not going to be the tactical solution.Looking at the candidate pool, it is difficult for me to gauge who would be best suited in the VP role. I think some may push for Kamala Harris. Maybe not a bad option, but that could energize Trump's base because anyone coming from, ahem, 'Commiefornia' might end up having too much baggage. (No offense to the Californians on this forum)I also liked Tulsi Gabbard and I think she might have made sense as a VP option. But like you indicated, the media decided to undermine her and that may have now made it non-viable for her to enter the fray.I guess the one name that could be floated now is Cuomo. He has become pretty popular as a result of his response to Covid-19. He seems to have a fair amount of respect and doesn't appear too much on the fringe. And based on the sentiment of many Democrats feeling he should be the person running for president, if he is chosen as a VP option, that might tip the scales in the Democrats favor come November.