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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Phat
Member
Posts: 18262
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 106 of 955 (873902)
03-21-2020 5:22 AM
Reply to: Message 99 by Faith
03-20-2020 6:54 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
I've been shopping all over town and all of the grocery stores are 70% depleted. Could the rapture be far off?

The only way I know to drive out evil from the country is by the constructive method of filling it with good.Calvin Coolidge
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.-RC Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith

- You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
Anne Lamott
Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.~Andre Gide

This message is a reply to:
 Message 99 by Faith, posted 03-20-2020 6:54 PM Faith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 107 by Tangle, posted 03-21-2020 6:25 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 108 by dwise1, posted 03-21-2020 7:03 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 110 by jar, posted 03-21-2020 7:58 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 115 by AZPaul3, posted 03-21-2020 10:57 AM Phat has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 107 of 955 (873903)
03-21-2020 6:25 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
03-21-2020 5:22 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Phat writes:
Could the rapture be far off?
Yes.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Phat, posted 03-21-2020 5:22 AM Phat has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 108 of 955 (873905)
03-21-2020 7:03 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
03-21-2020 5:22 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
As a grocery store professional, perhaps you can provide some insight.
Early on at Trader Joe's, I was told that they restocked the shelves as best as they could before the store opened and then the shelves would get depleted during the day.
Basically, I'm assuming that most of the stores' supply lines are still operating. Is that a safe assumption? What I would fear would be the disruption of those supply lines.
My first decade in the Navy Reserve was in warehousing units, therefore in supply (I came in as a Data Systems Technician, DS, based on my Air Force training and experience as an Electronic Computer Systems Repairman (AFSC 30574)). One of the principles of supply is that they have tracked supply and demand within the supply system for years, from which they have defined "high-water marks" and "low-water marks" which (in conjunction with lead-time) tell them when they will need to order more materiel and how much (I even attended a course on the computer system, UDAPS, which worked all that out).
I would assume that grocery stores have worked out a very similar system. In addition, there's the "just in time" inventory model notably championed by Japanese car manufacturers in which you try to minimize the amount of inventory you hold in order to avoid the extra costs of having bought parts that sit idle in warehouses for long periods of time (plus the overhead of warehousing). Capitalism inevitably evolves into a very efficient beast that minimizes expense as much as possible (even and usually at the cost of the workers' welfare).
So, hopefully, grocery stores' supply systems remain intact. But those systems were fine-tuned over the years based on normal conditions. Conditions are no longer normal. With all the panic buying, the old rates of demand for each item no longer apply. For example (pulling figures out of the air, out of a hat, or out of far less savory places), when pasta consumption might have been about 20% of inventory, now suddenly it's at 100%. The same with canned soup. The tried and true rates of replenishment no longer apply. So even if the store's normal supply systems continue to function normally at their normal rates, those items will not be able to keep up with demand.
Now if those normal supply lines and rates were to start to fail ... .
FWIW, I am a military retiree, but in the 8 years since my retirement I have yet to go onto a military base. It suddenly occurred to me before waking up in the middle of the night (an occupational hazard of being an old person) that base commissaries should be more immune to panic buying that civilian stores. Maybe it's time for me to visit the commissary so that I can buy some eggs. And canned soup.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Phat, posted 03-21-2020 5:22 AM Phat has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(2)
Message 109 of 955 (873906)
03-21-2020 7:04 AM


Interview with Larry Brilliant
Larry Brilliant is an epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox.
Wired
The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like this. It was simply when.
So maybe this is the wake-up call we needed. Nasty as coronavirus is, there are worse diseases out there. Maybe we’re lucky it isn’t much worse.
But let’s not be complacent.
It's the most dangerous pandemic in our lifetime.
But it’s not all bad news
By slowing it down or flattening it, we're not going to decrease the total number of cases, we're going to postpone many cases, until we get a vaccinewhich we will, because there's nothing in the virology that makes me frightened that we won’t get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months.
And a suggestion on what the US should be doing
But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they didthey did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.
Edited by PaulK, : No reason given.

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 110 of 955 (873907)
03-21-2020 7:58 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
03-21-2020 5:22 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Phat writes:
Could the rapture be far off?
The End Times and Great Tribulation are definitely possible but the rapture is simply fiction.
Edited by jar, : appalin spallin

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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coffee_addict
Member (Idle past 477 days)
Posts: 3645
From: Indianapolis, IN
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 111 of 955 (873909)
03-21-2020 8:49 AM


Toilet paper
A few days ago, I was going to my office and stopped by Sams Club to get some grocery and stuff. Saw people grabbing toilet paper. Some people loaded up their flat carts with huge packages of toilet paper. So, I headed toward the toilet paper section. There was 1 left. I took it. I managed to grab a package of 45 Mega Rolls from Sams!
So, a couple days ago I took our kids (aka dogs) to the park. Talking with other parents. Some people complained that they couldn't find any toilet paper. One woman said her family was down to 3 rolls and they still couldn't find any anywhere.
Here is a news article about an Oregon PD telling the public to please stop calling 911 because they are out of toilet paper.
https://ktla.com/...11-because-youve-run-out-of-toilet-paper
quote:
It’s hard to believe that we even have to post this. Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance.
In fact, history offers many other options for you in your time of need if you cannot find a roll of your favorite soft, ultra plush two-ply citrus scented tissue.
Seamen used old rope and anchor lines soaked in salt water. Ancient Romans used a sea sponge on a stick, also soaked in salt water. We are a coastal town. We have an abundance of salt water available. Sea shells were also used.
Mayans used corn cobs. Colonial Americans also used the core of the cob. Farmers not only used corn cobs, but used pages from the Farmers Almanac. Many Americans took advantage of the numerous pages torn from free catalogs such as Sears and Roebuck. The Sears Christmas catalog, four times thicker than the normal catalog, could get a family of three wiped clean from December through Valentine’s Day; or Saint Patrick’s Day if they were frugal.
Then, of course, there are always alternatives to toilet paper. Grocery receipts, newspaper, cloth rags, lace, cotton balls, and that empty toilet paper roll sitting on the holder right now. Plus, there are a variety of leaves you can safely use. Mother Earth News magazine will even tell you how to make your own wipes using fifteen different leaves. When all else fails, you have magazine pages. Start saving those catalogs you get in the mail that you usually toss into the recycle bin. Be resourceful. Be patient. There is a TP shortage. This too shall pass. Just don’t call 9-1-1. We cannot bring you toilet paper.
I must admit that before the Great Toilet Famine of 2020, I never ever ever ever thought it's actually a thing.
Edit.
Just did an inventory. We still have 14 mega rolls left before we have to open up this package. Bring it on, Great Toilet Paper Famine!
Edited by Lammy, : No reason given.

If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

Replies to this message:
 Message 112 by Chiroptera, posted 03-21-2020 9:13 AM coffee_addict has replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 112 of 955 (873910)
03-21-2020 9:13 AM
Reply to: Message 111 by coffee_addict
03-21-2020 8:49 AM


Re: Toilet paper
I was told that one of our grocery stores - it may be the local Walmart - announced it's going to limit toilet paper purchases to one package per customer.
I guess a person can go back in several times or have several family members grab a package, but it may reduce the panic impulse.

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

This message is a reply to:
 Message 111 by coffee_addict, posted 03-21-2020 8:49 AM coffee_addict has replied

Replies to this message:
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coffee_addict
Member (Idle past 477 days)
Posts: 3645
From: Indianapolis, IN
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 113 of 955 (873911)
03-21-2020 9:21 AM
Reply to: Message 112 by Chiroptera
03-21-2020 9:13 AM


Re: Toilet paper
Now is as good a time as any.
My husband and I vow to not participate in any further toilet paper purchasing. We currently have 62 mega rolls. This will last the two of us for like a year. We will only buy some if we are down to 3-5 rolls.

If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


(1)
Message 114 of 955 (873912)
03-21-2020 9:35 AM


QUININE-BASED THERAPEUTIC DRUGS FOR THE VIRUS
Maybe you've been hearing about these drugs, Chloroquine and Hydroxychloraquine? Supposed to help prevent AND treat the Covid-19 virus, at least reduce its effects. Sounds great but then I heard one of my talk show guys* last night say he had his doubts so he looked it up and found out it can cause neurological damage which leads to all kinds of psychological problems, from nightmares to psychosis.
From Wikipedia:
QUINISM:
Neuropsychiatric quinism is a chronic encephalopathy due to intoxication by mefloquine, quinacrine, chloroquine. It is associated with brain dysfunction and brainstem dysfunction. It may be confused as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI). In the opinion of one medical author it "may have been widely unrecognized in veteran populations, and its symptoms misattributed to other causes."[1] Symptoms include, but are not limited to, limbic encephalopathy and neurotoxic vestibulopathy.[2]
Here's Wikipedia on Chloroquine which is primarily used to treat malaria, the main subject of the article, but its possible efficacy for the virus is also discussed, mostly positvely:
COVID-19[edit]
In late January 2020 during the 2019—20 coronavirus outbreak, Chinese medical researchers stated that exploratory research into chloroquine and two other medications, remdesivir and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "fairly good inhibitory effects" on the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is the virus that causes COVID-19. Requests to start clinical testing were submitted.[42][43] Chloroquine had been also proposed as a treatment for SARS, with in vitro tests inhibiting the SARS-CoV virus.[44] '
On 19 February 2020, preliminary results found that chloroquine may be effective and safe in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia.[45] There is evidence to indicate the efficacy of chloroquine phosphate against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro on Vero cells.[42] The Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology and the Guangdong Provincial Health and Health Commission issued a report stating that chloroquine phosphate "improves the success rate of treatment and shortens the length of patient’s hospital stay" and recommended it for people diagnosed with mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia.[46]
Chloroquine has been recommended by Chinese, South Korean and Italian health authorities for the treatment of COVID-19,[47][48][unreliable medical source?] although these agencies noted contraindications for people with heart disease or diabetes.[49] In February 2020, both drugs were shown to effectively inhibit COVID-19 in vitro,[42] but a further study concluded that hydroxychloroquine was more potent than chloroquine, with a more tolerable safety profile.[50] Preliminary results from a trial suggested that chloroquine is effective and safe in COVID-19 pneumonia, "improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus-negative conversion, and shortening the disease course."[45]
Another version is Hydroxychloroquine
(Sorry my eyes are giving out and finding something to quote is too hard right now.)
*Michael Savage
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(2)
Message 115 of 955 (873920)
03-21-2020 10:57 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
03-21-2020 5:22 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Could the rapture be far off?
It has been indefinitely postponed because of COVID-19.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Phat, posted 03-21-2020 5:22 AM Phat has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 116 of 955 (873923)
03-21-2020 11:21 AM
Reply to: Message 97 by caffeine
03-20-2020 6:07 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
caffeine writes:
Sweet heavenly Jesus.
Prophylactic measures are not just to protect oneself but also to prevent one from becoming an inadvertent vector during the early infectious stage when no symptoms or only mild symptoms are apparent.
May I suggest simply ordering a grocery delivery and staying home if you're this concerned?
Grocery delivery does not exist in our area. South of here in the more densely populated Boston metropolitan area there are services like PeaPod. Those who can avail themselves of such services should be aware that the virus can persist on surfaces for as long as 72 hours. Delivered groceries should sit in a protected but outer area of your domicile such as the garage, or in a large-size garbage bag in the hallway (wash hands after handling), or under an awning, etc.
The same is true of take out. Starbucks dining rooms are shut down, but many of their drive-throughs remain open. When your car window and the drive-through windows are both open air from Starbucks containing the exhalations of the waitperson can enter your vehicle, deposit on your car's interior and your clothes, and enter your breathing passages. The Starbucks cup could contain virus on its surface. Carry a spray bottle of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Spray the outside of the cup and the cover with alcohol, then wipe clean with a tissue, then do the same for your hands. Spray alcohol on your clothing and the car's interior.
Yes, that is too much. The proper advice is to avoid all drive-throughs.
Ordering take-out delivery has problems, too. If you order a pizza to be delivered then both the inside and outside of the box could have virus. The heat of the pizza is sufficient to kill the virus, but only on the parts of the box that actually are in contact with or very near the pizza. The rest of the box must be sprayed with alcohol. You should avoid coming anywhere near the delivery person or with any air they have recently breathed.
Delivery of Chinese food is a probably a little easier. Hot Chinese food in cardboard containers is more than hot enough to kill all virus. However, the inside and outside of the bag could have deposited virus. Spray with alcohol before handling.
Well, if it reassures you, it was only about ten days ago when I saw maybe one or two people wearing masks in town, at most. On Wednesday I was almost the only person out without a mask; since yesterday it's a legal requirement to cover your mouth outside.
Masks are very difficult to come by in the US. This is typical:
As is this (blacked out portions are addresses and phone numbers of local stores).
The lack of masks in the US will contribute to the virus's spread.
In summary, the coronavirus is extremely contagious and extreme prophylactic measures are appropriate in order to prevent both catching it and becoming a vector for it. Perhaps you are right that this is an overreaction, but as Dr. Fauci reminds the public frequently, it is far better to overreact than under.
--Percy

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 Message 97 by caffeine, posted 03-20-2020 6:07 PM caffeine has replied

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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 117 of 955 (873930)
03-21-2020 12:11 PM


California is planning for 25 million peopke to be infected in 8 weeks
There have only been a few thousand infected so far, perhaps 10 thousand, in California.
This was reported the same day I said nobody is assuming exponentially higher infections, so I missed that one.
California is also putting the homeless in hotels.
We still need to allow people to sleep outside without trespassing and loitering charges. Any place, any time of the day. The hope I hold is that is gives people the freedom to find a spot safe from the virus problem that is ending many many lives.
Biden said we need tent hospitals, perhaps so there can be quick expansion to solve the problem of too few facilities. I would prefer that the tents be OPEN AIR and separated a good distance from one another.
No politician has taken responsibility for the failure to plan for this thing. We should have been aware of the risk of viruses long ago, and it is obvious that NO POLITICIAN ever wanted to spend the money for OVER CAPACITY in hospital facilities with all the equipment costs, healthcare worker training costs, the worker costs themselves, and especially the massive land costs. I give some credit to the single payer healthcare realists like Sanders since there was the beginning of the realization that money has to be sought after to begin to fund our health care system reform and needs.
I can't access it presently but I have an article I saved about 8 to 10 years ago which showed the money it would take to classify 100 percent of viruses and bacteria AND to characterize the features.
100 million dollars invested could classify about 83 percent.
100 billion dollars would be able to classify 99 percent and characterize most of its features.
The idea was to get a bit ahead of deadly outbreaks. I will try to find it when I get a computer soon.

  
Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


Message 118 of 955 (873937)
03-21-2020 2:36 PM


Reasons for the shortage of medical supplies
Most hospitals in the US are privately owned, isn't that so? They do their own ordering of equipment, not the state or the federal government, isn't that so? I have been hearing that 36 states have a law limiting how much equi8pment they can order, something about "need" determined by the state rather than the hospital management. So now many hospitals are finding they may not be prepared for a pandemic.
But that's just one problem. Another is that a lot of our medical suppliesx are manufactured in China and recently there has been a severe shortage of them coming from China.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 119 of 955 (873939)
03-21-2020 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 101 by Coragyps
03-20-2020 9:44 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
But please don’t really mix bleach and alcohol. Way better than mixing bleach and ammonia, but still not at all good.
A friend of mine took a call where a woman mixed bleach and ammonia to clean her apartment. She slept all night in those fumes. She finally called 911 saying that she was having difficulty breathing. By the time he got there she was already in the throes of death. She was thrashing around incoherently, an incredible volume of blood and what appeared to be lung tissue was gushing from her mouth and nose. And then she died, obviously of suffocation, right in front of him. Said it was one of the most disturbing and disgusting scenes he's ever witnessed. I saw the aftermath photos.... unbelievable amount of blood and pink tissue. Gruesome way to die.
Moral of the story: Do NOT EVER mix bleach and ammonia.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 120 of 955 (873940)
03-21-2020 3:04 PM
Reply to: Message 79 by hooah212002
03-19-2020 2:40 PM


Re: A Question About Masks
I've read an alarming number of comments, on reddit mainly, saying everyone needs to literally stay indoors and that the act of going outside puts you at risk of contraction and death. Keep in mind, I am talking about just going outside. not going to the store. Not going to a restaurant. Not going to a concert. Just going outside your house. Is there ANY validity to this?
I doubt that immensely. I am in a very high risk profession as I have to interact with the public and have very little PPE to act as a barrier. But just being outside is almost no threat. You need to stay healthy; that includes going outside and exercising. Obviously you want to practice social distancing and avoid crowds, that's legit, but the air that's outside is still the same air thats getting on the inside of your house. Don't worry about that.
Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by hooah212002, posted 03-19-2020 2:40 PM hooah212002 has not replied

  
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