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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
May’s Plan B is she threatens everyone with No Deal to get Plan A through Parliament. That actually does clarify Plan B. Question is: will it work? Seems like a dangerous gambit.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17822 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament. It might work on Parliament, if the efforts to stop it don’t come through. But given the scale of her defeat the first time it’s not something to bank on.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament. So if that is the case, doesn't that mean a No Deal Brexit is pretty much the most likely at this stage? The only options left are: 1) May's Deal2) No Deal 3) Second referendum (and/or general election) If May is running down the clock, option 3 seems to be highly unlikely. Especially considering the requirement for an extension of Article 50. Which would need European Parliament approval. I guess the only other potential option is a a revocation of Article 50. I believe the EU said Britain can do this unilaterally. Considering the political climate, that may be considered a betrayal of democracy. Of course, they could argue that they are only revoking it 'temporarily' to provide time for alternatives. As I said: clusterfuck and rapidly approaching shitstorm.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17822 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
I think that the most likely scenarios are - at present:
No Deal Parliament takes over and forces a soft Brexit May’s deal And the order of likelihood is far from certain. No Brexit isn’t even ruled out. It also depends on the EU’s tolerance for the squabbling I. Parliament. If the EU won’t grant an extension for Parliament to get its act together (or for a referendum or a General Election or whatever) then that’s pretty much out. Whichever way it goes expect a load of arguing and shouting and rancor in the House.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9489 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Queenie has decided to say something...to the Women's Institute!
quote: Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8513 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Was there a huge man dressed in leather armor standing to the left behind her carrying a large head-chopping ax?
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Tangle Member Posts: 9489 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Yes but no axe, just a tray of homemade Victoria sponge cakes.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8513 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Oh Dear. Her Majesty shows a lack of imagination. Charles would have had the ax-man in the scene just to help the point across.
BTW, the sponge cakes, strawberry or lemon?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: MPs reject move to delay departure date - BBC News Well this should be interesting. Not sure how much the EU is going to budge. But perhaps with the prospect of a No Deal Brexit on the horizon, they might be willing to make some concessions.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17822 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance.
But if she is just going to go back to insisting on a fixed time limit or a unilateral right to withdraw - or assuming that the “technology” fairies will magically solve all the problems it is going to be a hard sell.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9489 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
If I was the EU, I'd be doing everything I could to create an environment for a referrendum. That means give nothing - they know 'no deal' is impossible, except by accident.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm. |
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
PaulK writes: It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance. I think there are also stickler points around whether or not the UK stays in the common market and the customs union. Several Labour MPs and Brexiteers seem to have widely different ideas about that.
Tangle writes: If I was the EU, I'd be doing everything I could to create an environment for a referrendum. That means give nothing - they know 'no deal' is impossible, except by accident. I think that has been their endgame from the get go. Either force a re-vote or broker a deal that is heavily skewed in the EU's favor. The last thing the EU wants right now is to foster a situation where the UK comes out on top and has an economy that starts to outperform the EU. That would set a dangerous precedent and could start to give ideas for thinks like Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, etc. Those are unlikely in my opinion, but there could still be pressure on Brussels if an economic slowdown occurs and affects the EU disproportionately relative to other countries.
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frako Member (Idle past 306 days) Posts: 2932 From: slovenija Joined: |
I think that has been their endgame from the get go. Either force a re-vote or broker a deal that is heavily skewed in the EU's favor. Well the birts had the idea that they will be the British empire negotiating with a pack of barbarians. Thing is They are a fractured island nation negotiating with an empire. Of course the deal will be skewed in the EU'S favour that's the whole point of 27 countries banning together. They wanted to leave and still have open access to the EU's common market who do they think they are. They had the best deal of any EU nation, they did not have the EURO and their open borders where not so open iv been trough the whole of Europe the only place i was ever searched on the border was the UK. They even got rebates from the Eu common fund a veto vote .... If there was ever an EU member that had no reason to leave that would be the UK. I just hope when they come begging back on their hands and knees they get a standard entry deal. Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9489 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
frako writes: I just hope when they come begging back on their hands and knees they get a standard entry deal We just need to revoke and it's like nothing happened. Personally I'm for that, but if people are insistent on leaving I want the whole hog; totally gone - no deal, start again from scratch. We deal with the initial chaos - inflation, shortages, jams, currency falls, unemployment and re-build as a giant Singapore and fuck the EU up the arse. It'll take two generations. And all the C2, D Brexiters and pensioners will personally suffer, because they'll be at the coal face but that's what the idiots wanted right?Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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frako Member (Idle past 306 days) Posts: 2932 From: slovenija Joined: |
We just need to revoke and it's like nothing happened. Yea but thats not going to happen, the right would riot.
re-build as a giant Singapore and fuck the EU up the arse. It'll take two generations. No you wont, the only reason you had all that trade with china was because you labled yourselves as the door to Europe. Without the EU you are a door to nowhere. Its the french that will have to expand their docks to compensate now. Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.
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