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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 7488
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 391 of 887 (847017)
01-15-2019 4:23 PM
Reply to: Message 390 by PaulK
01-15-2019 2:46 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
Ok. So now there is no plan yet Britain has got to be out by March something . Why? Who’s forcing this deadline?
Without a plan there will be great economic dishevel and gnashing of monetary teeth. Why? How so?
What are the issues with Britain just standing up on that March day, walking down the hall and out of the European building? Parking pass won’t get validated? How big a parking pass we talking about?
And if Britain and Ireland want to keep their (non)border free and open as it is now who is it that says they can’t do that? What would happen? Is Merkel going to put German troops on the Irish border?
What happens on that fateful March day that cannot be overcome by calm consideration by willing consenting adults?
Might, just might, the British electorate pull their collective heads out of their collective derrire and abandon this kerfuffle?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 390 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2019 2:46 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 392 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2019 4:37 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17395
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 392 of 887 (847018)
01-15-2019 4:37 PM
Reply to: Message 391 by AZPaul3
01-15-2019 4:23 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
The deadline was set in law when Parliament voted for Brexit
Exiting without a deal means that all arrangements with the EU are void - that covers a hell of a lot. Tariffs, entry, flights, data protection....
The Irish border is a border with the EU. Since stoping the free movement of people was one of the reasons for Brexit it would be a bit silly to say it’s OK if people happen to come through Ireland. Likewise movement of goods (what’s the point of tariffs or regulations if importers can just avoid them?)
At this stage the British electorate can only lobby their MPs. If there is a General Election they can have some impact. If there is another referendum they could have more (but I think that a referendum could be easily rigged by the choice of options.). Neither seems that likely - there will be a No Confidence vote tomorrow, but May is expected to win.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 391 by AZPaul3, posted 01-15-2019 4:23 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 393 by Diomedes, posted 01-15-2019 5:23 PM PaulK has replied
 Message 396 by AZPaul3, posted 01-15-2019 6:13 PM PaulK has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 980
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 393 of 887 (847023)
01-15-2019 5:23 PM
Reply to: Message 392 by PaulK
01-15-2019 4:37 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
I think we have now officially transitioned from quagmire to clusterf&*k. Next in line is shitstorm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 392 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2019 4:37 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 394 by Tangle, posted 01-15-2019 5:29 PM Diomedes has replied
 Message 395 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2019 5:32 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8896
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.3


(2)
Message 394 of 887 (847024)
01-15-2019 5:29 PM
Reply to: Message 393 by Diomedes
01-15-2019 5:23 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
I'm pretty sure buggers muddle came before cluster fuck. But maybe that's needlessly pedantic.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 393 by Diomedes, posted 01-15-2019 5:23 PM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 398 by Diomedes, posted 01-16-2019 9:18 AM Tangle has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17395
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 395 of 887 (847025)
01-15-2019 5:32 PM
Reply to: Message 393 by Diomedes
01-15-2019 5:23 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
I thought we were already in the Perfect shitStorm. There is no option that won’t piss off a lot of people. Time is running out. May’s credibility is shot. The EU won’t renegotiate without major changes to the offer...

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 7488
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 396 of 887 (847026)
01-15-2019 6:13 PM
Reply to: Message 392 by PaulK
01-15-2019 4:37 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
The deadline was set in law when Parliament voted for Brexit.
As I recall, in Her Majesty’s governments the Parliamant IS the law (within reason).
They made it. Now, change it. Choose some other date.
Exiting without a deal means that all arrangements with the EU are void - that covers a hell of a lot. Tariffs, entry, flights, data protection....
So what would stop either or both from obersving most of those conventions anyway?
The ones the whole Brexit thing is about can be decided in Parliament at their leisure without any European concerns.
They want bicycle seats of different than regulated EU sizes, they can have it.
The Irish border is a border with the EU. Since stoping the free movement of people was one of the reasons for Brexit it would be a bit silly to say it’s OK if people happen to come through Ireland. Likewise movement of goods (what’s the point of tariffs or regulations if importers can just avoid them?)
Heavens forbid two neighbors should make nice with each other. Reach an accommodation with the neighbor. Let the talks begin yet again and yet again for however long it takes. Ireland may not be Mexico but Brits don’t get to build a wall either.
referendum could be easily rigged by the choice of options
Very easily indeed, but with the whole world watching there is a larger constituency to be served. The question comes up who is doing what level of rigging and why? Britain is still a democracy (with respect, Your Majesty). Once the exact wording to be presented is made public (but not yet officially adopted) every political interest not involved in setting that wording will be howling as will the press, domestically, internationally, galactically.
I would think what will be settled on as the final language would not be allowed to get too far away from fair.
Neither seems that likely - there will be a No Confidence vote tomorrow, but May is expected to win.
If she falls, does it come crashing down to the point where Her Majesty dissolves the Parliament, beheads both the PM and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and calls for an election?
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

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 Message 392 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2019 4:37 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17395
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 397 of 887 (847031)
01-16-2019 12:29 AM
Reply to: Message 396 by AZPaul3
01-15-2019 6:13 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
quote:
They made it. Now, change it. Choose some other date.
Parliament has the power, but they have to use it. And if they want an extension of the deadline they need EU agreement.
quote:
So what would stop either or both from obersving most of those conventions anyway?
Public pressure for some, international law for others.
quote:
They want bicycle seats of different than regulated EU sizes, they can have it.
Once we depart from EU regulations the EU is going to stop recognising our standards - at least in the relevant areas. Which means companies would need to get EU certification for goods. It’s not just goods either - data protection is a big issue. If we don’t follow GDPR to the EU’s satisfaction, EU companies can’t send their data here.
quote:
Heavens forbid two neighbors should make nice with each other. Reach an accommodation with the neighbor. Let the talks begin yet again and yet again for however long it takes. Ireland may not be Mexico but Brits don’t get to build a wall either.
The point is that Ireland is in the EU, so it’s not just Britain and Ireland, it’s Britain and the whole EU. Ireland is not going to institute border controls with the rest of the EU, and we can’t expect them to.
quote:
Very easily indeed, but with the whole world watching there is a larger constituency to be served. The question comes up who is doing what level of rigging and why?
Probably the government to try to get support for May’s deal. But it is worse than that, it is hard to set the question so that it doesn’t influence the result.
quote:
I would think what will be settled on as the final language would not be allowed to get too far away from fair.
Which would be fine if there was agreement on what is fair. But there isn’t. If the majority want Brexit in some form should we stick with Brexit ? If there is more support for Remain than there is for either of May’s deal or No Deal individually should we abandon Brexit ? Both are very likely true.
quote:
If she falls, does it come crashing down to the point where Her Majesty dissolves the Parliament, beheads both the PM and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and calls for an election?
Usually it’s a General Election but Parliament has time to come up with an alternative government - if they can agree on one.

This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 980
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 398 of 887 (847036)
01-16-2019 9:18 AM
Reply to: Message 394 by Tangle
01-15-2019 5:29 PM


Re: A Massive defeat for May
I'm pretty sure buggers muddle came before cluster fuck. But maybe that's needlessly pedantic.
Fair point. I am still coming up to speed on my UK lingo.
So the sequence might look like:
Quagmire -> Buggers Muddle -> Clusterfuck -> Shitstorm
Not sure about Omni-shambles. That could be a synonym of Buggers Muddle. But willing to include that as well.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 980
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 399 of 887 (847050)
01-16-2019 2:54 PM


May's government survives no confidence vote
quote:
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has seen off a bid to remove her government from power, winning a no confidence vote by 325 to 306.
Rebel Tory MPs and the DUP - who 24 hours ago rejected the PM's Brexit plan - voted to keep her in Downing Street.
May's government survives no-confidence vote - BBC News
So that at least reduces the options on the table since a general election is now not possible or likely.
So remaining scenarios are:
1. May's current deal passes with some amendments or provisions
2. A No Deal Brexit occurs
3. A second referendum
I guess a lot of that will be predicated on what May can salvage in the next few days, since she is under time crunch for a Monday deadline for Plan B. She has been adamant that a second referendum won't occur. But she has flip flopped on other things. So I wouldn't take it off the table.
I am still of the opinion that eventually, Parliament will vote for some variation of May's deal since it is far superior to a No Deal Brexit. It is likely that MP's constituents will start to become more annoyed with this whole mess and may start putting pressure on them to just get on with it.

Replies to this message:
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Straggler
Member (Idle past 461 days)
Posts: 10332
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 400 of 887 (847054)
01-16-2019 5:36 PM
Reply to: Message 399 by Diomedes
01-16-2019 2:54 PM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
Extension of article 50 is the next most likely step.
May has started talks with other party/faction leaders/spokes-people with the notable exception of Corbyn.
Corbyn says he won’t talk to May until no-deal is taken off the table.
My prediction - for what little that is worth - is article 50 extended and then the eventual push for a second ref from a Labour that ultimately leads to that. But then I’m not sure remain would win a second ref. It’s a fucking shit show.

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Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 7488
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 401 of 887 (847055)
01-16-2019 6:13 PM
Reply to: Message 400 by Straggler
01-16-2019 5:36 PM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
Certainly you folks have plenty of poll services that have been hammering on this for quite some time.
What are your most trusted favorites saying?

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 8896
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 402 of 887 (847061)
01-17-2019 3:44 AM
Reply to: Message 401 by AZPaul3
01-16-2019 6:13 PM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
It looks like a remain majority but not by much and there's an increasing amount of confusion causing an increase in 'don't know' so it would still be touch and go.
https://whatukthinks.org/...re-held-today-how-would-you-vote

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 401 by AZPaul3, posted 01-16-2019 6:13 PM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 403 by Diomedes, posted 01-17-2019 9:28 AM Tangle has not replied
 Message 404 by Percy, posted 01-17-2019 10:14 AM Tangle has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 980
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 403 of 887 (847066)
01-17-2019 9:28 AM
Reply to: Message 402 by Tangle
01-17-2019 3:44 AM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
That's the real danger with another referendum. Despite the chaos, there is no guarantee that the vote would switch in a meaningful way. And even if it did tend towards Remain, if the margin is slim, that opens up the possibility of continued pressure and calls for additional referendums.
I don't have a dog in this fight and despite some my own concerns with the EU, I was still in favor of Britain staying. My main rational is that Britain was the foil for Germany, which is essentially the defacto 'leader' of the EU. Without them, Germany would have even more clout over the smaller, weaker countries. And Brussels is essentially just their puppet.
With that being said, calling another referendum or calling off Brexit entirely would cause serious damage to the credibility of the government as an institution. Or maybe that is shot already. Hard to say.
Well, as we said, clusterfuck. No better term at this time.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 21346
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 404 of 887 (847068)
01-17-2019 10:14 AM
Reply to: Message 402 by Tangle
01-17-2019 3:44 AM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
Tangle writes:
It looks like a remain majority but not by much and there's an increasing amount of confusion causing an increase in 'don't know' so it would still be touch and go.
https://whatukthinks.org/...re-held-today-how-would-you-vote
Isn't the margin in favor of Remain 8-10% lately? Aren't the devastating downsides of Brexit that have gradually become apparent over the past couple years a call to Parliament to carry out their leadership responsibilities and do what is best for the country, regardless of how the electorate voted in 2016?
It is this blind adherence to the 2016 referendum, including some dunderheaded idea that an issue can only be voted on once, that is a big part of the problem. The members of Parliament know a Brexit vote today would be far more informed than the one in 2016, and they should make sure it happens.
In all representative governments it is reasonable to ask, "If the electorate voted for the country to jump off a bridge, should the government do it?" In my opinion we elect our public officials not to blindly do our bidding but to represent our best interests, even when we have a misguided understanding of what those best interests are. Unfortunately most representatives today care most about getting reelected. Rather than leading they slavishly mold their behavior to public opinion in their district. Love of country must take precedence over love of holding office, even when it means you'll lose that office. Integrity demands this kind of behavior, but little of it exists today.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.

This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17395
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 405 of 887 (847074)
01-17-2019 12:57 PM
Reply to: Message 400 by Straggler
01-16-2019 5:36 PM


Re: May's government survives no confidence vote
We have May’s Plan B. Run down the clock, threaten No Deal and hope someone else blinks.
She’s playing chicken with the fate of the Nation. Too bad there is no way to get rid of her.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 400 by Straggler, posted 01-16-2019 5:36 PM Straggler has not replied

Replies to this message:
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