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Member Posts: 3941 From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior) Joined: Member Rating: 10.0 |
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Author | Topic: The economy needs a 3% GDP growth to function well | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
That is the new fiscal year coming up and I described it as FY 2017 by mistake. It is FY 2018 that will see the Federal Reserve begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The reductions will start at $10 billion per month (starting in December I think) and the amount liquidated will gradually rise to $50 a month in 12 months.
October 1 2018 till September 30 2019 will be FY 2019 (not FY 2018 as I stated above) and that will be the fiscal year where apparently $600 billion will be liquidated. In addition to huge budget deficits of at least $700 billion, in these 2 years, there will be all this QE liquidation bond selling that will require investors. Interest rates already have jumped quite a lot just this week alone. I didn't see the yield numbers for yesterday or today (have yet to read my Wall Street Journal for September 29 plus I don't know what happened today), but September 27 say a major increase in the treasury yield. (from like 2.0% up to about 2.3% in just 1 day)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
The problem with the current economic system is that it only measures "wealth" in monetary units:
To be "wealthy" in this system you must accumulate a lot of money and things valued in monetary units. In my thinking this is a false paradigm. This is what causes Trump, the Koch brothers, Walmart and the republican party. A person can be wealthy, in my opinion, if they are surrounded by a happy and supportive family (Asgara and Buz come to mind), and a person can have a wealth of knowledge. These things do not have a strict monetary value and so they are not included in the "economy" valuation. What is wealth? Bing dictionary brings up:
quote: It is only when you get to archaic that you get to well-being ... So to my thinking a country is wealthy that is concerned with and encourages the well-being of it's citizens, that has a wealth of knowledge to handle problems (like global climate change and renewable power generation), where the health and happiness of the citizens is a paramount concern. That is not the current USofA ...
quote: quote: Now I imagine a few nations have changed position since 2005 (Venezuela for instance), but I can't help notice that countries with high degrees of social democratic policies -- such as universal health care and guaranteed minimum income -- rank at the top, and that the US ranks 12th (in 2005). So I would contend that GNH is a better measure of "wealth" than GNP ... particularly as it is difficult to have too much happiness. Enjoy Edited by RAZD, : .by our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Taq Member Posts: 9973 Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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LamarkNewAge writes: The average income in the United States appears to be going toward $59,000 per person for 2017. The statistical Naze in me can't help but point out that this is the median income which is different from the average or mean income.
The world average should be over $11,000 for 2017 but that depends on how much worse the dollar gets. (Purchasing power in the world will average over $17,000 per person in 2017). A truly universal (that is worldwide) income right of $250 per month (PPP or purchasing power parity) might be in order if one wants faster economic growth and the (near)end of abject poverty.
I'm not an economic expert, but it seems like a bad idea to dump a lot of cash into an economy since it could create unmanageable inflation/deflation. It also reminds me of a story my grandfather used to tell about his time in the US Army during WW II. There were quite a few guys who liked to gamble and play poker. Within a few days of getting their paychecks a lot of those guys would be broke, but there were a few card sharks that would be flush with money, and it was usually the same guys each month. Just flooding the economy with money seems like a bad idea, but it might work if it is balanced by building infrastructure that would produce good paying jobs in the long term. Otherwise, all of that money moves into the pockets of barons or an economic oligarchy (think Russia) and stays there. But I could be completely wrong. Again, I'm not an expert in economics.
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LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
quote: I can't make to much fun of you because I managed to forget what you seem to have forgotten. I USED to know (the very basic fact) that the median income was a much lower dollar amount than the average income, but it seemed to slip my mind (remember the Brexit thread and PaulK challenging my knowledge on that issue?) The median is about $18,000 per capita per year while the average is going to be about $59,000 per capita per year. The median household income will be around $38,000 or something. For some groups (especially Americans of Indian descent), the median household income is close to the average individual income amount. The Indian household median income situation was what got me confused (in the Brexit thread)between average and median (though I knew exactly what median meant, as you surely do, but I got the dollar amount all confused, and I used to know better LONG ago. PaulK raised the issue of "well being" being better reflected by the median income level, and I stupidly said that the median was about the same as the average, and he called me on it. How I forgot that, I have no idea.
quote: You seem to be responding to the QE temporary creation of money (to be removed later?) It made mortgages cheaper and lower interest rates there enabled people to get good monthly payments. But the wealthy were the biggest winners there. Lower income folks are hurt by lower mortgage rates because it shoots up housing prices. That was the mortgage backed security part of the $4.5 trillion in debt purchases. As for the federal treasury bond purchasing part... The national debt hasn't been too expensive to finance that's to the QE buying treasury bonds and keeping rates down. But a massive ton of the debt purchasing was fairly short term maturity bonds, and they will need to be replaced my (much higher yielding) bonds sold to investors in time. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
quote: American Indians are interesting. There is a lot of interest in (generally fundamentalist) Christianity despite the well known past imposition. Indians are interested in a lot of issues and frankly, a societal resurgence (as if it ever surged in the past) in the liberal arts might attract lots of Indians. Indians in the United States might not be the best examples if one expects to see what typical results will be. I don't know. I know that a number of working Indians do have issues with liquor, but most are deeply offended if "their people" are singled out as having worse vices with addiction than whites and blacks. They are very vocal on that note. (dunk Indians often shout out against whites and "their drugs"). Drunk and sober Indians alike dismiss their being singled out as any different.
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Taq Member Posts: 9973 Joined: Member Rating: 5.6 |
LamarkNewAge writes: Indians in the United States might not be the best examples if one expects to see what typical results will be. I know where you are coming from, but I don't think they are atypical, either. There is a strong correlation between unemployment and chronic drug use. One could argue which leads to which, but the correlation is there. From what I have seen, this is true across all races. If you look at the current opioid crisis it is really bad in W. Virginia where unemployment is high (i.e. coal miners out of work).
I know that a number of working Indians do have issues with liquor, but most are deeply offended if "their people" are singled out as having worse vices with addiction than whites and blacks. They are very vocal on that note. (dunk Indians often shout out against whites and "their drugs"). Drunk and sober Indians alike dismiss their being singled out as any different. There is a genetic basis for alcohol tolerance and addiction (e.g. ADH isoforms), but those are tangential to the issues I am referring to.
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LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
An AP story was just printed today in my local paper
Here is a link from another paper Report: Rich will get still richer unless policies change - Albuquerque Journal
quote: A fall from 22% down to 20% seems like a roughly 10% income share drop for the top 1%. I did not see the exact numbers for the bottom 50% but it looks like an almost 10% income share is an improvement from 2008 to 2016 at least. I don't know what the numbers were when looked at from a broader perspective (from 1980 to 2008, and even for 2008 I don't know the numbers). There is an anti free trade bias from the study authors it seems (and the AP article does seem to uncritically assert that globalization has somehow hurt the bottom 50% of Americans). I would call that erroneous. Well, what to make of this?
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Dr Jack Member Posts: 3514 From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch Joined: Member Rating: 8.7 |
Unlimited growth on a limited planet is impossible. This is simply untrue. Growth needn't be driven by consuming more resources; it is also driven by innovation and creativity. In fact, most growth over the last seventy years (at least) has been produced not by consumption of more resources but by rapid improvements in technology and the creation of new ideas. And, even if it were true, it is only relevant if those limits are hit within a timescale relevant to current decision makers. A limit to growth that applies a thousand years in the future is of no consequence. An economy without growth isn't stable; it is stagnant. Edited by Dr Jack, : Forgot a point.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
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Where does happiness fit into your life? your concept of wealth?
It is crucial to well-being, health and personal satisfaction. My previous post on this listed information from 2005. There is updated information since my last post:
quote: So Venezuela did fall. I also picked countries where austerity was imposed (Spain, Greece, Portugal). Countries with high degrees of social democratic policies -- such as universal health care and guaranteed minimum income -- still rank at the top. The US fell some, the first country below 7, but I don't think we have the full impact of the Trump Kleptocracy effects. Especially when the new tax scam goes into effect. It would be interesting to see countries graphed since the 2012 report. Enjoy Edited by RAZD, : .by our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
``Here's the results for 2016:
quote: Costa Rica moved up above US in placement, but 2016 report scored lower (was 7.087, 7.079 in 2017 report) US went from 7.104 in 2016 report to 6.993 in 2017 report. Russia, Poland, Greece, Venezuela and Portugal all moved up from 2016 report to 2017 report. Puerto Rico dropped from 15th place (7.039 in 2016 report) to not being listed in the 2017. Make what you want of the numbers. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
The Netherlands has the world's tallest people, so perhaps they have the best diet?
Or is spiritual health the best measure? What about those spiritual issues? Could the unreal explosion of vegetarians/vegans in Israel in JUST the past decade (or broadly speaking ALMOST decade and a half) be signs of spiritual growth and thus be a sign of a (growing) successful society? What about India? On related moral concerns, consider the following: Moral poverty in the United States (especially the unhealthy south) might be an issue to consider. The black community of Alabama saw the fight against Roy Moore (and his sphere of - ironically - faux "moral" supporters) as a spiritual battle against Satan himself (and I should point out that his chasing of younger girls isn't what I am concerned about here, and I doubt that was the main concern from black voters though I assume they cared somewhat about his sex life while I don't give a rat's rear end). Moral poverty must be considered, to some extent, a drag on lifespans and economic health. I think that moral and spiritual issues can be seen as a sign (or signs) of society's growth and thus could be a harbinger for the future (if not the present). We should be able to agree that health indicators are important. But perhaps all of the above issues are symptoms of the respective societies success? But are we looking at results that represent the respective societies as a whole or is a lot of top-loaded (like the top 1% or top 10% or top 20% or top 50%) success skewering the overall numbers? Then we have to consider the fact that there aren't going to be the same definitions of "happy", "moral", "spiritual", and (perhaps even) "healthy".
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LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
I assumed the only thing he did was date teenage girls in a manner of common consent (one was 14 I think).
I forgot that there were other accusations (including him touching people against their will and issue like that). I was just reading another thread, and a post. I didn't follow the discussion of his sexual accusation issues closely. So, just scratch out what I said above. I am not interested in the issue, but perhaps I went too far when I said I didn't give a rats behind. (and I actually care a lot about rats anyway, and think mammal eating snakes should be illegal pets plus I oppose the legality of inhumane rodent traps) (edit: I just understated what I think should be illegal when it comes to killing animals but moving on) I only mentioned the issue because I was trying to point out that his sexual issues weren't the "moral" issue in black voter's minds. I was trying to make a point about morality being subjective and I was thinking of racism of the right being "evil" to some while abortion and homosexuality seem evil to others (like Moore supporters). Southerners present themselves as happy and moral even though they are physically unhealthy. My point was that people can skew happiness indicators. Perhaps my whole point was weak from the get go. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
What about India? It's listed in the reports. I haven't looked to evaluate their positions.
The black community of Alabama saw the fight against Roy Moore ... Interestingly the "black belt" that began as good soil for cotton and became a depressed area of predominantly black people after the Civil War, continuing to today, voted overwhelming for Doug Jones, adding another overlay on the map.
Moral poverty must be considered, to some extent, a drag on lifespans and economic health. This was part of the evaluation of the UN investigation of poverty in America. See American Poverty -- UN envoy investigates Enjoy Edited by RAZD, : lnkby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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jar Member (Idle past 394 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
With the ever increasing advantages offered by technology is there any good reason the US should not move towards a Progressive Manor Estate society? By accumulating the wealth in the hands of the Elite, those who have demonstrated that they are the most suited to rule, we could achieve a functional stable society for all where Trickle Down will actually work.
With the adoption of online ordering and direct just in time delivery coupled with the Smart Home that can track everything including whether or not someone is in a room and if so, adjust light to the appropriate level for the current activities in that one room; track available foods to make sure there is sufficient quantity and diet appropriate foods for each resident at a given location the needs of the peoples could be met in an efficient and orderly manner and reduce waste to near zero. Ubiquitous computing would even be able to adjust meals to suit the individual needs of each unit and also monitor to make sure that the proper unit consumes the foods. One advantage to consolidated wealth is of course that the wealthy require more services than common units so there will be a higher demand for services like Footman or Best Boy, Waiter and Server and Butler; Ladies Maid and Gardner and Fancy Women. Just look at the variety of significant jobs that were available in last great Progressive Manor Estate society. As we consolidate all retail into a few regional distribution points we would open up most of the current real estate to re-purpose as Unit Housing. Allowing the Elite to use modern computing technology as well as direct just in time delivery to appropriately distribute all resources needed will keep the units functioning at an optimal level while reducing waste as well as improving overall US environmental conditions. No unit would need to drive an individual vehicle to go shopping or to work rather the same system used for just in time delivery could also be used for just in time pickup and delivery for those units needing transportation over a greater distance then by walking alone. It seems to me that by adopting a Progressive Manor Estate society as our goal the US could create an orderly stable society where ever unit knows it's place and is valued and replace outmoded inefficient systems such as we use today with ones suited for the 21st Century and flexible enough to change rapidly based on actual hard real time evidence.
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Phat Member Posts: 18262 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.1 |
Wouldnt this recreate the whole idea of indentured servants?
Why should free people know their place? If reality includes ending the war against the wealthy and bowing and scraping, I fear the anger that would arise.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith Paul was probably SO soaked in prayer nobody else has ever equaled him.~Faith
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