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Author Topic:   2012 Olympics
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1055 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 129 of 181 (670560)
08-16-2012 9:59 AM
Reply to: Message 128 by Straggler
08-16-2012 9:29 AM


Re: Is the U.S.A. a top sporting culture?
Lets say that the US can enter 4 hockey teams and all the other countries can enter just one. How does this change which country has the best team?
Men's Hockey Results
Germany - Gold
Netherlands - Silver
Australia - Bronze
(Britain came 4th losing to Aus in the bronze medal playoff)
I still don't see how the US having 4 inferior teams somehow gets it a medal here? Please explain.
Germany won the men's hockey. That doesn't mean Germany had the best team. There is no way to objectively determine the 'best' team. If we could replay the Germany-Holland final a thousand times, do you think Germany would win it a thousand times? Of course not. We don't know what the final outcome would be, but Germany would certainly lose several matches.
The more teams you have, the more chance you have to win. I'm not sure what's difficult to understand about this. Would it help to provide a list of thousands of sporting fictures won by an inferior team?
As for whether the US had athletes at home who could have beaten other country's medallists, of course they did. So did several other countries. Olympic events typically allow between one and three entrants per country. In some of the events where more than one is allowed, we can see that the same country wins two or three medals.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by Straggler, posted 08-16-2012 9:29 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 136 by Straggler, posted 08-16-2012 12:12 PM caffeine has not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1055 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 131 of 181 (670565)
08-16-2012 10:36 AM
Reply to: Message 130 by bluegenes
08-16-2012 10:21 AM


Re: Is the U.S.A. a top sporting culture?
Still, I agree with your point, and limited entry could cost you the occasional bronze.
If we changed the athletics conditions to one athlete per country, this year it would have cost the US 4 silvers and 4 bronzes this year. That's just athletics. If we did the same with all disciplines in all events, it would lose the US a further four silver and three bronze - so eight silvers and seven bronzes in total.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 130 by bluegenes, posted 08-16-2012 10:21 AM bluegenes has replied

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 Message 135 by bluegenes, posted 08-16-2012 12:00 PM caffeine has not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1055 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 149 of 181 (670670)
08-17-2012 4:00 AM


Removing restrictions
A few too many replies to reply to each one individually, so I thought I'd just bung a general reply in here.
On consideration, I'm still confident that an unrestricted Olympics would win the US more than just one extra bronze - they'd win quite a few more bronzes and silvers.
However, when arguing with Straggler, I was coming from a position of it only being the US that sent more athletes, because of his bizarre refusal to accept the obvious fact that more entrants means more chance of winning. If all restrictions were removed, there's a good chance it could lose the US a few bronzes in the sports where other countries specialise. To grab one example, South Korea and China could probably field a few more Olympic quality archery teams, which would have made the USA's silver in that event harder to win.
I still think the USA would benefit overall, however, since most of the events I could think of in which the US couldn't field more competitive atheletes, like fencing and weightlifting, for example, they didn't get a single medal anyway.

Replies to this message:
 Message 150 by Straggler, posted 08-17-2012 8:20 AM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1055 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 157 of 181 (670693)
08-17-2012 10:47 AM
Reply to: Message 150 by Straggler
08-17-2012 8:20 AM


Re: Removing restrictions
It is you who seems to be making the rather bizarre claim that just entering lots of people (or teams) in an event is some sort of statistical route to success because actually being good at that event doesn’t really count for much in terms of winning. This is patently not how competitive sport works.
I'm not sure why you're so resistant to this idea, nor why you keep representing it as a dichotomy between 'more entrants' and 'being better'. By arguing that entering more teams is an advantage, I am not claiming that the quality of teams is irrelevant. The better the team, the more chance it has of winning. This is obvious. But, imagine the two following scenarios:
Scenario A - Countries A, B, C, D all enter one team each, their best team.
Scenario B - Countries A, B and C all enter their best team. Country D enters their best 15 teams.
Now, in which scenario is country D more likely to win gold? In Scenario B, they're almost guaranteed to have a team in the final, and then, even if it is not the better team, once there it always has a chance of winning on the day. And it's not like the difference in quality between, for example, Germany's best basketball team and the USA's fourth best basketball team is equivalent to the difference between a Premiership club and a pub side.
That's all that's being argued here. Having more entrants gives you more chance of winning. It obviously doesn't guarantee it.
I am essentially agreeing with Bluegens analysis above. That is what I am referring to here when disputing those (Oni and Caf) who seem to be arguing that the US specifically is somehow at a great disadvantage because of the participation limitations in individual events
That's not what I said, though. I pointed out that it would benefit other countries as well. Any country or group of countries who are dominant in a particular sport would benefit from having the caps removed. Rowing's an obvious one, since it's one that limits entrants to one per country. The top rowing countries, like Britain, Australia and Hungary would be able to get two of three medals in the same events, which now they can't. Allowing a third entrant in badminton would help China get an extra bronze or two. It would benefit any country that has more Olympic quality competitors than they are currently allowed to submit.
Like I said, overall, I think it would add a few medals to the US' count.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by Straggler, posted 08-17-2012 8:20 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 159 by Straggler, posted 08-17-2012 12:52 PM caffeine has not replied

  
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