|
Register | Sign In |
|
QuickSearch
Thread ▼ Details |
|
Thread Info
|
|
|
Author | Topic: What is a Theory? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22480 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
erikp writes: Formal proof for the hypothesis that science is necessarily false, would otherwise be very useful. The formal proofs of mathematics have nothing to do with scientific theories. The falsifiability requirement of scientific theories means that they are always necessarily incomplete. Rrhain has been stressing this point about the incomplete nature of scientific theory. You're defining a false set to be any set which contains more than zero false statements, then saying that if we consider science as a set of statements that if it contains more than zero false statements then science is false. This is sort of like saying that if my car has one or more non-working parts that I can't get to work. Mathematics is an essential tool of science, but one can conceptualize mathematical abstractions that have little correspondence to the real world, and that is the case with your line of reasoning. While science uses math, like my car it is part of the real world and is not a mathematical abstraction. --Percy
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erikp Member (Idle past 5571 days) Posts: 71 Joined: |
quote:Popper implies that a falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified. There is indeed no proof for this statement. quote:If every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, it means that every falsifiable theory will eventually be proven to be false. That means that the correct status of scientific theories is: unproven, false. This is important. Too many people use the phrase "scientifically proven", even though, not one single theory has ever been "scientifically proven". Furthermore, if the falsification process will inevitably end with the proof that the theory is false, we know that all scientific theories will only be useful for some time, after which they will be discarded. I concede the point, however, that the statement that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, is remains unproven. It requires proving that every collection of future observations for a theory, must contain at least one observation that will contradict the theory. It is not trivial to prove this.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 17825 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
quote: As I have stated elsewhere this is to be expected, based on the incomplete state of our knowledge. It is not inherent in being falsifiable (indeed any true and useful theory must be falsifiable but cannot be falsified).
quote: No. What must be realised is that when we talk of scientific proof we are not speaking of the absolute proof provided by inductive logic. We are, however, speaking of sufficiently strong supporting evidence that it would be sensible to accept the theory as true (as indeed, we can be sure that it IS mostly true).
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bluescat48 Member (Idle past 4211 days) Posts: 2347 From: United States Joined: |
If every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, it means that every falsifiable theory will eventually be proven to be false. That means that the correct status of scientific theories is: unproven, false. This statement reeks of "Stupidity." Even if every scientific theory was falsified, in all cases the replacement theory would still contain elements of the current theory. Such robust theories as the Copernican Solar System, Plate tectonics, evolution, oxydation-reduction, Periodic law & gravity, for example, would not be totally falsified without bringing down virtually all related theories. Each may be falsified in the sense of alternation of certain aspects of the theory, but in all of the above cases the theory contains some actual facts. The mechanism for the theory might be modified at some future date, but the premise is still there. Edited by bluescat48, : sp There is no better love between 2 people than mutual respect for each other WT Young, 2002 Who gave anyone the authority to call me an authority on anything. WT Young, 1969
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1426 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
hey again, ericp, still having trouble with the logic I see.
If every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, it means that every falsifiable theory will eventually be proven to be false. That means that the correct status of scientific theories is: unproven, false. All {A} is {B}, {B} therefore {A} is a common logical error. You can see from this picture that there is a lot of {B} that does not have to be {A} Does gravity not exist because Newton's law of gravity has been invalidated? Do all the rockets that landed on Mars suddenly disappear into space because their trajectories were calculated using Newton's Law? As on your other thread, the antithesis has the same conditions, so according to your "logic" they too must be "unproven, false" and again we have conclusions that are a contradiction based on your premise, so the premise must be false. Again, missing from your logic is the result of a theory that has been falsified:
You have assumed, falsely, that only the third category applies.
This is important. Too many people use the phrase "scientifically proven", even though, not one single theory has ever been "scientifically proven". Curiously "too many people" doesn't necessarily include scientists. This is also the logical fallacy of popularity. Scientists are more likely to say "science has demonstrated\shown ..." which would be a true statement. Science has shown that evolution has occurred. Science has shown that speciation has occurred. These are true statements because the processes defined as evolution (the change in hereditary traits in populations from generation to generation) and speciation (the division of a parent population into reproductively isolated daughter populations) have been observed to have actually occurred. We can also say that science has shown that no contradiction to the theory of evolution has been observed yet, even though the theory has been tested thousands of time. Therefore it is more reasonable to treat the theory as tentatively true than it is to treat it as tentatively false. Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. • • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Parasomnium Member Posts: 2224 Joined: |
erikp writes: I concede the point, however, that the statement that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, is remains unproven. It requires proving that every collection of future observations for a theory, must contain at least one observation that will contradict the theory. It is not trivial to prove this. It is impossible to prove this, if only because "every collection of future observations" describes a practically infinite number of observations. Also, if a certain aspect of reality behaves according to certain basic rules - be they mathematically expressible or not - and if your theory happens to state these rules exactly, then it is impossible in practice to make an observation that falsifies your theory. But this does not mean that the theory isn't falsifiable in principle, because that only requires you to be able to state an observation that would falsify it, if and when it were made. Therefore it is possible to have a falsifiable theory which, due to its exact coincidence with reality, must forever remain unfalsified, which disproves the statement that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified. Only falsifiable theories which are in fact false, may eventually be falsified. "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin. Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erikp Member (Idle past 5571 days) Posts: 71 Joined: |
quote:All cases are equivalent. "Water boils at 100 C" has always been unproven, and presumably false, but it took a long time to discover that "Water boils at 70 C if you reduce the pressure sufficiently", and that the boiling point for water was replace by a formula in terms of atmospheric pressure. That theory or any further refined theory is, of course, still false. Whatever theory currently describes the boiling point for water, it will still be false, but we simply don't know why, and that is why we keep using that theory, until the next iteration of refinement produces yet another theory. Even though formally unproven, the point of view that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, and therefore false, is in my opinion, absolutely reasonable. In those terms, science is necessarily: unproven, false. Edited by erikp, : unmatched quote
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fallacycop Member (Idle past 5542 days) Posts: 692 From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil Joined: |
Even though formally unproven, the point of view that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, and therefore false, is in my opinion, absolutely reasonable.
Good thing you pointed out it's only your opinion
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bluescat48 Member (Idle past 4211 days) Posts: 2347 From: United States Joined: |
All cases are equivalent. "Water boils at 100 C" has always been unproven, and presumably false, but it took a long time to discover that "Water boils at 70 C if you reduce the pressure sufficiently", and that the boiling point for water was replace by a formula in terms of atmospheric pressure. That theory or any further refined theory is, of course, still false. No it is not, just refined. At a given pressure water boils a specific temp. All that has done to the original theory is correct a missing part. It does not disprove or make the theory false. Why do you claim the theory is false? Edited by bluescat48, : sp There is no better love between 2 people than mutual respect for each other WT Young, 2002 Who gave anyone the authority to call me an authority on anything. WT Young, 1969
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erikp Member (Idle past 5571 days) Posts: 71 Joined: |
quote:Exactly. We use theories that are (currently) impossible to prove false; but which are (necessarily) false. The state of the art moves forward, and science progresses when someone finally makes the observation necessary to prove what we knew all along, but never managed to prove: that the theory is simply false.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erikp Member (Idle past 5571 days) Posts: 71 Joined: |
quote:The theory that says that "water boils at 100 C" is simply false. According to the definition of "false", one observation that contradicts the theory is sufficient to prove it false. Well, one can clearly observe that water boils at 70 C when atmospheric pressure has been reduced sufficiently. Therefore, applying the definition, the theory is incontrovertibly false. Note that 999 999 999 999 observations may not contradict, and therefore support the theory; it doesn't matter. That one observation that does contradict it, irrevocably falsifies the theory. And the theory is then simply false, regardless of how long anybody or how many people may have thought it was true.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Huntard Member (Idle past 2316 days) Posts: 2870 From: Limburg, The Netherlands Joined: |
erikp writes:
No it isn't, water under normal circumstances still only boils at 100 C.
The theory that says that "water boils at 100 C" is simply false. According to the definition of "false", one observation that contradicts the theory is sufficient to prove it false.
But the observation wasn't under normal circumstances, it added a bit, the pressure. And so the theory became, water boils at 100 C unless a certain pressure is applied, then it boils at 70 C.
Well, one can clearly observe that water boils at 70 C when atmospheric pressure has been reduced sufficiently.
Exactly, but since this doesn't happen naturally here on Earth, the theory that water boils at 100 C still stands.
Therefore, applying the definition, the theory is incontrovertibly false.
No it isn't. Your logic, however, is.
Note that 999 999 999 999 observations may not contradict, and therefore support the theory; it doesn't matter.
Yes it does. Since the observation you're talking about didn't contradict the theory.
That one observation that does contradict it, irrevocably falsifies the theory.
But it didn't contradict it, water still boils at 100 C under normal circumstances, it will boil earlier when you tinker with the pressure,, but in a normal situation, this never happens.
And the theory is then simply false, regardless of how long anybody or how many people may have thought it was true.
As shown, the theory is not false, there was just a bit added. I hunt for the truth
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Coyote Member (Idle past 2127 days) Posts: 6117 Joined: |
We use theories that are (currently) impossible to prove false; but which are (necessarily) false.
And you are showing once again why working scientists tell ivory tower philosophers to butt out and let them work. The state of the art moves forward, and science progresses when someone finally makes the observation necessary to prove what we knew all along, but never managed to prove: that the theory is simply false. You bring to mind that nice Jack London quote:
quote: Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erikp Member (Idle past 5571 days) Posts: 71 Joined: |
quote:What is the definition for "normal circumstances"? In absence of a definition for that term, your statement is simply open-ended. If you do define the term, however, we are inevitably back to the formula that describes the boiling point for water according to the current state of the art. That formula is wrong, but we just still don't know why. The next iteration of that formula will be wrong too. Science will remain: unproven, false.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Huntard Member (Idle past 2316 days) Posts: 2870 From: Limburg, The Netherlands Joined: |
What is the definition for "normal circumstances"? In absence of a definition for that term, your statement is simply open-ended.
Conditions as they exist naturally on this Earth. Happy now?
If you do define the term, however, we are inevitably back to the formula that describes the boiling point for water according to the current state of the art.
Yes, and it is true.
That formula is wrong, but we just still don't know why.
Everything we know says that it is right, how can you be so sure that it is wrong? Do you have evidence that it is wrong? No? Then this is just a baseless assertion.
The next iteration of that formula will be wrong too.
How do you know there will even BE a "next iteration"? You don't? Then it is again a baseless assertion.
Science will remain: unproven, false.
Wrong. Science will remain true, until facts turn up that show it isn't entirely correct. I think we can say this safely about most of the most well understood theories: "NO fact that turns up will sow them to be absolutely false." They might need some tweaking, but I'm fairly confident that they won't be shown to be utterly false. Look at your water example, that water boils at 100 C is still true, it just so happens you can also make it boil at 70 C when you tinker with the pressure. By the way, you do know NOTHING can ever be proven in science, don't you. I hunt for the truth
|
|
|
Do Nothing Button
Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved
Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024