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Member (Idle past 1436 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
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Author | Topic: Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top | |||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Yes, about nine million dollar's worth, presumably in addition to the FEMA resources that were already on their way.
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: The letter said that there was a "FEMA ERT-A team enroute". On the 27th, however, Katrina was a category 3 hurricane that would make landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Alabama, and New Orleans was dry. Are you suggesting that we should send the 82nd Airborne into New Orleans every time there's a hurricane in the Gulf? Have you paid attention to how many false alarms like that there are every year?
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: You can't forecast a hurricane with that kind of confidence 48 hours in advance. I know this from personal experience from trying to be in the paths of hurricanes. A corollary is that it's very difficult to anticipate the strength of a hurricane prior to landfall. National Hurricane Center Advisories > Wikipedia This is from the 1 PM Advisory on 27 Aug
quote: Forgive the caps and the awkward pauses, that's National Weather Service format. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 02:18 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: First of all, what point are you trying to make? If you want to say that Blanco knew that Katrina would make landfall as a category 4, and that she knew it would strike New Orleans, why did she only ask for nine million dollar's worth of aid--not only for New Orleans, but for the entire State of Louisiana? This unusual turn of events has actually placed me in the position of defending Blanco by pointing out that there is no way she could have known with certainty what the storm would do 48 hours in advance. Yes, it was predicted to reach Category 4 but that in itself isn't unusual. Lili was a Cat 4 hours before landfall in Louisiana. At landfall it was a Category 1. That was only a couple of years ago and would be well in the minds of the Louisianans. Even more recent was last years fiasco with Ivan, that made a last-minute turn towards Pensacola. It also was a Category 4 prior to landfall. And it did a lot of damage, but not like what we see from Katrina. Essentially you need to know three things to make a competent decision about how much Federal help you need: (a) You need to know how strong the hurricane will be. (b) You need to know where that hurricane will make lanfall. (c) You need to know the area exposed to certain wind velocities. 30 miles can make all the difference in the world. Now, to show you the extent of the area under hurricane advisories, here is the 4 PM August 27th advisory:
quote: Here are the 11 PM Aug 27 strike probabilities for Hurricane Katrina: Hurricane KATRINA? There is a 17% chance it would hit New Orleans. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 02:34 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
I overlooked this:
quote: Okay, have a safe trip.
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Right. That's one of the reasons there should be a bipartison investigation: Bush has too much of a stake in this since he pushed for the unification. I think that covers (2) also. (3) There is nothing here I disagree with, really we need more information. (4) What legal power does the DHS have to force New Orleans to make a plan, and then stand by it in an emergency? (5a) There is nothing I can possibly say to justify these two appointments. (5b) Yes, primary authority rests with the lowest level of government.
quote: Source: http://www.fema.gov/library/strategicplanfy03.shtm
quote: quote: http://www.dhs.gov/.../interapp/editorial/editorial_0569.xml How many times in the Stafford Act do the words "coordinate" and "assist" appear in the duties of FEMA? How often does the phrase "assume authority" appear? Again, I'm not really interested in rehashing this over and over again. I'm simply going to say that there should probably be legislative action if we are to make serious changes and permanent changes to how FEMA and DHS operate. Not that the current occupants of the Executive necessarily would be enthusiastic about such changes, but I think it's more fundamental an issue than merely the actions of a single president.
quote: Somebody might have realized, hey, my city is below sea level. Maybe we should enter into a strategic partnership with another city for handling displaced persons? Houston was glad to help after the storm. Of course, in their defense N.O. is a poor city and such an agreement would likely involve money changing hands, and other mayors are less likely to agree to a binding pact when New Orleans is dry than after watching hours continuous rescues and shelter crises on all the news channels. Similar principle to "easier to get forgiveness than permission". (5c) I like the idea of requiring FEMA to be more proactive in the rare catastrophes. I also like the idea of using Federal resources like bases in an integrated, multistate evacuation plan. I believe it was Jesse Jackson that suggested within a few days of the storm and I still think it's viable. There are other good suggestions as well. If the United States wants to continue to persist for another 200 years then people think need to think about major catastrophes (bigger than this one), continuity of gov't, etc. There are bigger problems out there than hurricanes, specifically nuclear war, the probability of which I would say gets closer to one as the decades pass by. (5d) We're not going to settle State's rights issues or the ideal size of the Federal government, so I will simply agree to disagree. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 11:27 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: No, not the sole job in preparation, FEMA can help operational planning, like an evacuation that you just mentioned they probably should have preplanned. But when a hurricane comes barreling at New Orleans, Nagin is the first line of defense.
quote: And we need to (a) find out why the response was ineffective (b) fire the incompetents and (c) quit with the nepotistic hiring practices.
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: In the sense that DHS and FEMA like for as much of the work as possible to be done at the lowest levels, he is the first line of defense. In the sense that the standard operating procedure is for the governor to ask for troops before they are sent in, Blanco is on the first line of defense. In the sense that they are first and foremost coordinating agencies, the local authorities are on the first line of defense. On August 27, when the Governor asked for a declaration of emergency, Katrina was a Category 3 forecast to strengthen, though landfall was still 'up in the air':
quote: And according to another forecast product by the NHC, the forecast probabilities issued at 4 PM Aug 27 there was a 21% chance of the eye of the hurricane making landfall within 65 nautical miles of New Orleans before 1 PM Tuesday. That means that there's a 79% chance of the storm making landfall more than 65 nautical miles or remaining at sea through 1 PM Tuesday. Hurricane KATRINA? Some of you may feel that we should send in the cavalry at that point. However, this is not a very uncommon situation for Gulf hurricnes. For example, this is from the ten PM Wednesday, October 2, 2002, advisory for Hurricane Lili:
quote: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/pub/al132002.public.047.html That particular advisory was also accompanied by a strike probability table that listed New Orleans as 47%. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/prb/al132002.prblty.047.html How about another recent hurricane? 10 PM Tuesday September 14 2004
quote: Hurricane IVAN? Now, the 10 PM 14 Sep 2004 strike probability for New Orleans: 26% Hurricane IVAN? If the Bush Administration had already dropped paratroopers into New Orleans twice before Hurricane Katrina, do you think that Democrats might have made fun of him a little for it by then? It would be nice if we had perfect forecasts but uncertainty is par for the course. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 11:09 AM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
There's another interesting topic I just came across.
Cindy Sheehan wrote a commentary in which she decried the occupation of New Orleans.
quote: And:
quote: Emphasis mine. In fact, you will find the entire commentary posted on MichaelMoore.Com Michael Moore | Substack If Cindy Sheehan is ticked off at Bush for "occupying" New Orleans, instilling order, and ending looting, imagine how angry she would be if for Ivan and Lili he had inserted thousands of troops without their being requested from the Governor? This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 04:54 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: "Several days earlier" Katrina was a Category 1 hurricane in Florida, and there was no real evidence that such a catastrophe was imminent. Please see my previous post (message 255) in which I compare the history of Katrina to previous hurricanes Lili and Ivan, thus showing that there was nothing extraordinary enough to justify a massive deployment of troops and Federal personnel on the 27th of August, and that even if such a deployment had occured, there was no place in particular to concentrate them. On top of that, you risk endangering Federal assets by deliberately exposing them to a disaster beforehand. Further, unless the FEMA people would have been magically fixing those levee breaches faster than the water was tearing through it would not have changed the outcome. Finally, FEMA was very slow but FEMA usually is. You know, there already is an emerging conspiracy theory: that explosives residue was supposedly found on levee debris and covered-up by the Corps of Engineers. Shall we unpack the tinfoil? This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 05:38 PM This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 05:39 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Well then
quote: In other words, you are exploiting it to make a political statement about the ideal size and powers of the Federal government? Neither the Federal government nor the State or local governments can take primary responsibility for the safety of individuals who choose to live in a city below sea level and then, for whatever reason, do not leave. And in the case of people who were pulled from rooftops, did not even take their mayor's advice and go to the Superdome. THAT is conservative, small government thinking. If everybody thought this way: (1) New Orleans would be a lot smaller to begin with (I might not have lived there because I've been expecting this disaster, if I did, I would get flood insurance and have a car to leave. If I couldn't afford those things, then I couldn't afford New Orleans). (2) Fewer people would have remained in the city. (3) There wouldn't be people still needing to be rescued because they would have walked to the Superdome or convention center before the storm had they not been able to get out of the city. (4) 800+ people probably would not have died. But since personal responsibility isn't PC these days, we have this partisan attempt to blame Bush for people that willingly chose to remain, not only in New Orleans but in unsafe housing projects. You gave me your editorial with the "criminal negligence" quip, that's mine. It's hardly "criminal negligence" when we are talking about adults who should have gotten out but chose not to do so.
quote: Unless lead=coordinate. And you didn't answer my question. Under what legal authority can DHS force New Orleans to have an acceptable evacuation plan, and stick to it?
quote: Was it stocked and ready? Have you visited it? Another problem is that nuclear shelters are usually put in the ground and not higher than the first story. If you're anticipating 30 feet of water... And please, while you are at, explain what you mean by "later than necessary", and how you know how long is "necessary". This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 07:40 PM This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 07:59 PM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: You said that it's the because of a failure of the DHS if New Orleans wasn't prepared. That logic is specious until you demonstrate that if DHS told NO to prepare, they would. How do you suggest that DHS enforce it's "leadership" role?
quote: LOL. Basically, Leadership Through Annoyance. Look, I agree that DHS uses too many "pretty words" in it's mission statement but claiming that they have control over everything that happens is nonsense. I restate the question: What can DHS do if New Orleans doesn't have an acceptable plan? What can DHS do if other States don't want to play ball?
quote: Only if such a disaster actually occurs, and nobody expects one during their time in office. That isn't a valid threat until after the bungle-up happens.
quote: A mandate. Where is the legal authority?
quote: But it does only apply after a "situation". You said it yourself: you would have hearings and then public outrage. You need a foulup for that.
quote: You want to shelter people in a museum exhibit?
quote: You want to shelter people in a "museum"-type exhibit that is in a basement. And I presume this is in New Orleans?
quote: First of all, though, there is no evidence that the shelter system would have functioned well enough, fortunately we never had to find out. That shelter system was also inspired by a clear threat of nuclear annihilation that occasonally bordered on hysteria. That being said, if DHS were to bring back a shelter program (for hurricanes and for nuclear fallout) I would politically support that.
quote: This is an Appeal to Emotion when I asked for a logical argument. I am not asking if they got there too late to rescue everyone. It was "too late" to rescue everyone when the hurricane struck. I am asking how fast they could have reasonably gotten there, and how you know. I would like to know how you know how long the logistics should take, what units to move in from where, how long it takes to clear the roads, how long it should actually take the Coast Guard to make 30,000 rescue ops. that sort of thing. This is what you need to produce before you can say that it took unreasonably long. I haven't seen this from you, and until it is provided, you are committing the logical fallacy of Begging the Question. The question stands.
quote: They should have gone to the Superdome. More to the point, they should not have lived in a city below sea level without having a means of escape.
quote: Why can't they? Citizens of Mexico can illegally cross the US border with virtually no resources and relocate essentially anywhere in the Lower 48. Many of the citizens of New Orleans are poor...but I doubt that poor.
quote: I have remained in a hurricane's path but through my own conscious decision, fully comprehending the risk. If I had died or been inconvenienced by an overwhelmed government unable to instantly rescue me, that would have been my own fault.
quote: Then we have at least some common ground.
quote: Why didn't Nagin plan? Don't you hold him responsible for that? And further, technically those people should have planned. Like I said, if I could not afford a car and flood insurance, then I don't think I could afford to live in New Orleans. And even if I did, I would have been darn sure to check a topo map before finding digs. I guess you could blame the government for that too if you wanted...encouraging the poor to live in a dangerous place through housing projects. I'll agree though that DHS should have a plan for New Orleans. They should also have a plan for a mag 9 earthquake in Washington State, too. I don't want to say that I think DHS was running at anything near what it should have done. I'm just not satisfied with all these claims like "they weren't fast enough" (how fast should they have been given the resources and warning they had?)
quote: Not nature, but common sense.
quote: Yeah, but how often does not everyone get out? Now, this is something else DHS needs to be thinking about: making sure that evacuations can finish before landfall. But that's OT.
quote: Hah! I can picture that--though I still hate to think that they were endangered, and perhaps some even killed, in the storm.
quote: If you say that the government (preferably with help from the States) should improve education, then I'm with you on it. Same thing with the shelter program you were talking about. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-17-2005 10:32 AM
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: I think that's fair, but...
quote: How do they enforce it? CNN just ran (in the last ten minutes, on their flagship channel) a story that Nagin is saying that business owners should return to New Orleans, but the Feds are saying that the conditions aren't acceptable and that anyone who returns does so on their own risk. Who should the people of New Orleans listen to? Why isn't Nagin following the Federal line, if the Feds are his boss? I'm curious about how much authority they have in this situation.
quote: Okay.
quote: :Nods: at recognition of people doing their job.
quote: Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA (or DHS if you prefer) could you have assured us that you would have gotten everyone out? How can you assure this is even possible? Yes, one life lost is too many, and I can say that about a lot of things. But I think the question should be whether it is reasonable to expect that no life will be lost.
quote: That's the smart thing to do, and more people should think like that. Especially this case since you're talking about shorefront property...I doubt that building in that area was out of economic necessity since that usually drives up land value. Around here I know where the floodplains are, and some of them are getting townhouses built on them. Should've stayed a golf course.
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: You admit that Sheehan doesn't have a clue about what she's talking about?
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gene90 Member (Idle past 3854 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Okay, but right now you have the mayor of New Orleans and the current head of the Federal relief effort contradicting each other. See my previous post.
quote: Fair criticism, assuming that the Feds have power to force compliance.
quote: Okay, and you mentioned a lady that died after calling for help several times. But what we don't know is how many resources were available to rescue her, how thinly spread the Coast Guard was in making rescues, etc. Like I said, one life is too many, but what we want to know is how many can reasonably be expected to be saved.
quote: Right, but normally building codes are the province of local governments.
quote: Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA or DHS on last August 27th...how quickly should FEMA have gotten there, with how many people, and how do we know the figures are reasonable?
quote: This is already done. Guidelines positioning landfills make a distinction between "rubbish"--chemically stable building materials, and "garbage"--containing items you want to be careful to separate from your aquifer. The rubbish landfill is a lot easier to license. Basically you're talking about moving this rubbish to build on. Subsidence/compaction will likely cause some foundation damage but it's a way that cities have historically dealt with flooding and added real-estate to waterlines.
quote: How much would this cost? You might want to look at, I think, message 255, in which I show that on the 27th this hurricane wasn't looking like as much of a threat as two "duds" for New Orleans in the last few years.
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