Coronavirus and Pandemics

I was based in eastern ND (the cold part) for 5 years. The nicest people you could find, but around 1980 it felt very isolated plus the weather could get a bit much at times. That part of the state is in the region that includes Int'l Falls, MN, where arctic air masses would descend from Canada and sit on us, making Int'l Falls the coldest place in CONUS (US excluding Alaska and Hawaii). If you remember those scenes in Dr. Zhivago where he's trudging across flat empty frozen expanses, that was filmed on location in the Canadian plains (mainly Alberta, as I seem to recall from the credits). When we arrived in July, we were told a joke that they do have four seasons there: June, July, August, and Winter. Then we learned that it wasn't a joke. Another joke explains the population distribution in Canada, that they're all huddled together on the southern border for warm.I rather liked it there, but work opportunities weren't there (software engineer) so we moved back to SoCalif which also made my wife happy. Our son chose to go back to ND for school and then decided to stay there. However, his wife is from Florida so guess where he's living now.

Most people (meaning anyone not in the White House or in the rightwing echo chamber) seem to understand testing. Unless you know who's infected and who's not, unless you know where the hotspots are and where they're not, those resuming normal activities and behavior risk infection. The situation is no different now than before mitigation efforts began. If mitigation efforts cease then the infection rate will increase, unless we have massive testing. That means millions of tests per day. Currently we're at around 150,000 tests per day, about where we've been since before the beginning of April.Trump could mobilize the country to produce PPE and test kits, and to recruit testers, test labs and infection investigators, but he won't. He played the governors like a fiddle. He claimed total power and the governors pushed back, giving him exactly what he wanted. He backed away and told the governors it was up to them to decide when to reopen, and if things go bad then it's on them. Oh, and by the way, he's wants the country reopened, he stands with the protesters, but it's all on the governors.The governors don't have the power to build the test capabilities we need, so we will not have them. When (not if) governors begin giving in to pressure and begin loosening mitigation guidances (May 1 is a frequently cited date, just as Easter was frequently cited as a potential reopening date a few weeks ago) then the infection rate will again begin climbing. Here's today's bar graph of newly detected infections up through yesterday: This is not what a declining infection rate looks like. At best it's a plateau, and at worst, as I've been saying, it's an artifact of inadequate testing, as recently echoed in the Atlantic in How Bad Is the Coronavirus Outbreak? Here’s a Key Number. - The Atlantic:

quote:

---

The high positivity rate also suggests that new cases in the U.S. have plateaued only because the country has hit a ceiling in its testing capacity.

---

That is, things are not getting better, they're getting worse, and this is happening at the same time that increasing numbers of people are chaffing at the constraints on their right to work and move about freely. They will likely get their wish that mitigation orders be lessened and perhaps even dropped, and then they'll learn that epidemiologists really do know what they're talking about, though we'll all suffer because, just as we already saw in early March, the newly infected will be carriers until they show sufficient symptoms to get tested.That is, if they can get a test. Again, we're suffering from a severe lack of test capacity, and so it's very difficult to get a test. If you have no symptoms then you'll be turned down for testing. If you have mild symptoms then your doctor, urgent care and the emergency room will all likely tell you the same thing: remain home, take some Tylenol, and call again if the symptoms worsen. If your symptoms worsen they'll tell you the same thing. If your symptoms get worse yet they will still give the same advice. Finally, when your temperature has spiked at 104° and your chest feels like a band of steel is crushing it making it impossible to breath, they'll tell you to come in and take the test.Why is it done this way? Because the country can only test about 150,000 people per day. Health professionals cannot afford to use their scarce test kits on any but those who from all appearances have a fair chance of actually being infected. That's why, on average, 20% of the people receiving the test get back positive results. In reality nowhere near 20% of the country is infected. It's actually only a tiny percentage.It seems unlikely that all 50 governors and the mayor of Washington D.C. will see the inadvisability of going against professional medical advice and giving in to those protesting against mitigation rules. Some states will begin loosening up. When they do it will take about three weeks before infection rates begin climbing again. Since people can pass freely across state boundaries we will all pay the price.If my own state drops the mitigation rules I will not change my behavior one bit. I will continue to wear a mask and gloves when I am out and about among people. I will continue to assume that all stores are hotbeds of virus. Groceries, mail and packages will get quarantined in the garage for three days before opening. And in a few weeks the negative impact will become apparent and everyone will resume their mitigation behavior. Maybe then, probably sometime around the second half of June, we can begin to have a serious conversation about testing and get some action out of the dolt in the White House.There's another possibility that I hope likely. Just as when Easter approached it became clear that reopening was not in the cards, so will it become obvious as May 1 approaches. Perhaps this time it will also become clear, to enough conservatives, that we need more testing.And there's yet another possibility. Though the states have nowhere near the resources of the federal government, they are making progress toward increased test capacity. Perhaps it will be enough to make a difference.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Typo.

I always heard that Winnipeg had two seasons - winter and mosquito. We're going to be in trouble with management soon for being off topic but hopefully as we are able to be community, and are maintaining social distancing Percy won't be too hard on us.You're right about the population of Canada being close to the border. 90% of the population live within 100 miles of the border. I grew up in Alberta where we would often experience -40 although that doesn't seem to happen as much anymore. Lived in Montreal for 15 years where it it gets cold but it was the snow that did you in. Then had 8 years just outside Toronto which was pretty easy, particularly as the town I was in, (Oakville) was on Lake Ontario and wasn't too bad for snow.While we were in Toronto we had a small place in Ft Myers Fla. and we figured that when I retired we would summer in Oakville and winter in Ft. Myers. However we eventually concluded that we wanted to put down roots in one place where we could be more solidly established in our community and church. We picked the Saanich Peninsula on Vancouver Island and moved to where we are now. It meant commuting to Vancouver for work for 8 years until I aged out at 60 and had to retire.The climate here is great. It spends very little time below freezing in the winter with only a relatively rare snow fall which usually melts in a day or two. In the summer it rarely goes above 85 deg F. Summers are very dry and we do get a fair bit of rain in the winter months but that doesn't require shifting it around.My wife is from the Boston area but I rescued her and brought her up here, but she had adapted quite nicely.

I continue doing my 2 part time jobs, which have always involved minimal exposure to others, and it's even more minimal now.The radio station (ktwh.org) is pretty much keeping away all optional workers, and rerunning old shows in their absence. I think the number of people still showing up at the station is about 10, but all are scheduled such that there is only 1 person at the station at a time (with an occasional 2, still keeping distances from each other). We have no outside of the usual staff at the station, and are doing a fair amount of wiping things down at the end of shifts/day.My second job is night cleaner etc. at a veterinary clinic. Even in normal times, I'm almost always the only person in the building at the time. The clinic is restricting human clients from even coming into the building, and they're doing such things as having dog owners remove leashes and collars out in the parking lot, and the clinic then supplies a leash/coller to bring the dog into the building. Those leashes/collars are then run through the washing machine and dryer at the end of the day.I live alone (other than 4 cats) in a fairly isolated cabin out in the woods. I rarely got guests, even in normal times. Even though I'm traveling to and from Two Harbors on a daily basis, I can still easily go a full day or more without even seeing another person, especially if you don't count people hundreds of feet away or also in automobiles. Being a hermit night person makes me a social distancing natural.We have had no confirmed Covid-19 cases in Lake or Cook counties in northeast Minnesota. I don't see much of what's happening about town during daytime, but I think people are doing a pretty good job of minimizing contacts.Or something like that.MooseAdded by edit - I also live a pretty low cost existance - Even if no new money came in, I do have enough in checking to cover 3 to 4 months of expenses. I get by on about $600/month for normal day to day functioning. Things like insurance payments, extra auto maintenance, and cat illnesses will send that higher. Edited by Minnemooseus, : Added by edit.

April 5 had 9,600April 12 saw 22,000Now it will top 40,000 on April 19So much for the 60,000 total deaths fantasy. The 60,000 was supposed to be the total U S deaths when all was said and done in the more distant future. We will actually get 60,000 while the virus is still going strongI am only going to hope this really will be lesson for immensely better preparation for ever going forward.

60,000 was predicated on the nation practicing social distancing.I fear the South and some of the Midwest are heading for deep shit.

Thought you'd like this one, Percy.This is our President (at the head of the table) consulting a meeting of advisers: They have their masks on, but note that they've been served sausage and cheese.This took place a couple of weeks ago, but by that time it was already forbidden to meet in groups, and all work activities that could be done remotely had to be done remotely.Obviously the President (who, it should be pointed out, has no real role to play in the management of this crisis) struggles with Webex and Zoom. He needs to be shown the graphs on paper. With sausage and cheese.ABE: Why does this image not work? That's the correct url.Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.

I live in the midwest and I can assure you that next to everything iui s shut down.THE SHUT down is worse than the dreadful virus.I needed almost a week to be able to find a store that could sell me a new phone.It is punishing.This virus is so bad, but I would take 2 million deaths a year over the shut down. We need to prepare better next time.Not that this dreadful virus will ever end.

Is that the renovated Catoctin cabins?

Did you say you'd kill 2 million people so you can more conveniently buy a phone?

Fuckin' Republicans.

Really pathetic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!And also not very bright.

That's actually the Presidential summer residence. It probably has some fancier looking rooms in it:

AbE: Okay.Edited by Percy, : AbE: Didn't realize it was the Czech Republic's president.

Broadway star Nick Cordero has leg amputated after complications from the coronavirus, reports the Washington Post. Blood clots are a complication of coronavirus.I've seen no estimates or statistics of the variety of ways people experience the coronavirus, but here are my guestimates: I also think that the 20% worst cases have a fair chance of some type of permanent effect, such as diminished lung capacity, heart damage, kidney damage, liver damage, amputation, etc., and of course death.The demonstrators against mitigation efforts don't seem to understand what they're risking, not just for themselves but for everyone they come in contact with. Given his tweets I count the president among the demonstrators. Underneath it all he does understand the risks and is just playing political games with people's lives. He would not dare meet the demonstrators face to face without screening each one for temperature and without using the White House's handy-dandy automatic coronavirus detector machine, which I bet he isn't using the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of.--Percy