Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
4 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,817 Year: 3,074/9,624 Month: 919/1,588 Week: 102/223 Day: 0/13 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   The Optimal Climate & Optimal Human Development
Jon
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 1 of 10 (778472)
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


I'm splitting this from: 2014 was hotter than 1998. 2015 data in yet?.
A lot of the boogeyman hype regarding climate change seems to work from the assumption that the only amount of climate change that is good is no climate change at all.
But does the evidence really support this? What does the optimal climate system actually look like and why is that system optimal?
I addition, since almost everything we do seems to have some impact on some aspect of that system at least somewhere, what is the amount of change from an optimal climate system we can accept in exchange for the benefits of doing stuff?
To answer these questions, I think we need to start out by addressing what impacts various climate systems have on humanity. Then we can find one that has the fewest negative impacts.
Next we should probably lay out the benefits of the various things we do and the influences on the climate system these activities have.
Finally, by comparing the benefits of our activities with the negative impacts their climate changes cause we should be able to find the best possible compromise between our development and what effect our changes on the climate system might have on that development.
From there, the only real directions to go would be to lower the negativities or increase the benefits (or both) of that compromise.

Love your enemies!

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 02-20-2016 2:06 PM Jon has replied
 Message 3 by Dr Adequate, posted 02-20-2016 2:49 PM Jon has not replied
 Message 4 by RAZD, posted 02-20-2016 5:00 PM Jon has not replied
 Message 9 by Stile, posted 02-22-2016 9:11 AM Jon has not replied
 Message 10 by ringo, posted 02-22-2016 11:10 AM Jon has not replied

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 2106 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 2 of 10 (778476)
02-20-2016 2:06 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Jon
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


One factor that must be taken into consideration is technology, and in that I include access to adequate forms of energy.
The less technology a group has, and the less it is able to utilize available energy, the more it is dependent on a moderate and stable climate.
Given enough technology and available energy, a group could terraform Mars and do quite well. With poor technology and low energy availability an ice age would wipe out a group pretty readily.
Within limits most modern first-world populations could handle a 3 degree increase in temperature more readily than a 3 degree drop in temperature. It is now thought that a drop in temperature around AD 535-650 due to three volcanic eruptions was one factor in the fall of the eastern Roman Empire.
Late Antique Little Ice Age may have collapsed the eastern Roman Empire | Daily Mail Online

Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.
Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein
In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool
It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers
If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle
If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1
"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Jon, posted 02-20-2016 1:07 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by Jon, posted 02-21-2016 11:52 AM Coyote has replied
 Message 7 by caffeine, posted 02-21-2016 3:16 PM Coyote has seen this message but not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 285 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3 of 10 (778483)
02-20-2016 2:49 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Jon
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


What does the optimal climate system actually look like and why is that system optimal?
There seems to be an obvious answer: it looks like the one we have, and it's optimal because all our stuff is where it is predicated on the climate being how it is.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Jon, posted 02-20-2016 1:07 PM Jon has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 4 of 10 (778501)
02-20-2016 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Jon
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


Space colonies
To answer these questions, I think we need to start out by addressing what impacts various climate systems have on humanity. Then we can find one that has the fewest negative impacts.
Problem is that this is a very narrow focus.
Turn the ocean into a dead sewer once the bottom of the food chain fails due to acidification (no more shell-fish etc).
Kill off 50% of the land ecosphere with droughts and floods. Extinctions are already on the rise -- how far can that go.
For an example of using energy and technology try building up to living in space self-contained -- that is what you would need to be able to do.
And maybe that is a good goal to pursue -- cut the umbilical cord and move out into space.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Jon, posted 02-20-2016 1:07 PM Jon has not replied

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 10 (778553)
02-21-2016 11:52 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
02-20-2016 2:06 PM


The less technology a group has, and the less it is able to utilize available energy, the more it is dependent on a moderate and stable climate.
Very true.
But to the extent that development of technology mostly involves the destabilization of the climate, there is potentially a point at which the costs start to outweigh the benefits - a point at which each additional unit of technological advancement destabilizes the climate more than that unit allow us to mitigate that associated destabilization.
Within limits most modern first-world populations could handle a 3 degree increase in temperature more readily than a 3 degree drop in temperature.
In modern times, insufficient farm yields would be mitigated by putting some food grown somewhere else using fossil-fueled tractors and combines onto diesel trucks and rolling it across a few thousand miles of asphalt to where people need it.
Warmth is, generally, more tolerable than cold, though. Its effects are also easier to mitigate.
Edited by Jon, : No reason given.

Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 02-20-2016 2:06 PM Coyote has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Coyote, posted 02-21-2016 12:04 PM Jon has not replied

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 2106 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 6 of 10 (778554)
02-21-2016 12:04 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Jon
02-21-2016 11:52 AM


But to the extent that development of technology mostly involves the destabilization of the climate, there is potentially a point at which the costs start to outweigh the benefits - a point at which each additional unit of technological advancement destabilizes the climate more than that unit allow us to mitigate that associated destabilization.
One of the things that could replace some sizable percentage of fossil fuels is nuclear power, but the "peacenics" some decades back made nuclear such a dirty word that research, particularly in the US, has slowed and development of new plants has largely stopped.

Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.
Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein
In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool
It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers
If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle
If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1
"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Jon, posted 02-21-2016 11:52 AM Jon has not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1025 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 7 of 10 (778577)
02-21-2016 3:16 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
02-20-2016 2:06 PM


Here's a better cite:
Old trees reveal Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) around 1,500 years ago
Never cite MailOnline in support of an assertion. It automatically makes you look less likely to be correct.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 02-20-2016 2:06 PM Coyote has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Jon, posted 02-21-2016 7:00 PM caffeine has not replied

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 8 of 10 (778581)
02-21-2016 7:00 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by caffeine
02-21-2016 3:16 PM


Never cite MailOnline in support of an assertion. It automatically makes you look less likely to be correct.
Content over source.

Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by caffeine, posted 02-21-2016 3:16 PM caffeine has not replied

  
Stile
Member
Posts: 4295
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004


Message 9 of 10 (778594)
02-22-2016 9:11 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Jon
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


Jon writes:
Finally, by comparing the benefits of our activities with the negative impacts their climate changes cause we should be able to find the best possible compromise between our development and what effect our changes on the climate system might have on that development.
What is a "benefit" and what is a "negative?"
Is a harsh winter a negative because some people get sick?
Or is a harsh winter a benefit because it leads to the species evolving into hardier human beings?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Jon, posted 02-20-2016 1:07 PM Jon has not replied

  
ringo
Member (Idle past 412 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


Message 10 of 10 (778604)
02-22-2016 11:10 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Jon
02-20-2016 1:07 PM


quote:
This warming may provide opportunities for agriculture in certain regions with an expansion of the growing season to go along with milder and shorter winters. This could increase productivity and allow the use of new and potentially more profitable crops. link

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Jon, posted 02-20-2016 1:07 PM Jon has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024