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Author Topic:   Deflation-gate
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 31 of 466 (748630)
01-27-2015 2:08 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by AZPaul3
01-27-2015 1:33 PM


The volume of an inflated ball is not constant, nor does it increase proportional to pressure. Any analysis that does not take that into account and uses some naive application of the ideal gas law is going to be wrong. And by wrong I mean that they will over estimate the change in pressure for a given temperature rise.
I have seen a few calculations by amateurs that are surely incorrect, and also some statements from experts that don't reveal their assumptions. Not sure how anyone can figure out which experts to trust.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.
Edited by Admin, : Fix italic close code.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by AZPaul3, posted 01-27-2015 1:33 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by AZPaul3, posted 01-27-2015 3:42 PM NoNukes has replied
 Message 44 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 4:18 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 32 of 466 (748631)
01-27-2015 2:10 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 12:26 PM


Re: Science Takes the Stage
NoNukes writes:
Squeezing it between my hands, and attempting to 'palm' a basketball with each of my left and right hand would be enough to detect under inflation and over inflation of a standard size and weight men's basketball.
Impressive.
And yes you can bounce a football in a way that would help reveal under pressure.
And you can bounce a football in such a way? Again, impressive.
I would be complete surprised if a professional football player who handles the ball frequently was not even better at detecting inflation with a football that I am with a basketball.
Have you considered the possibility that your skill at detecting inflation pressure is just special? This video of Bellichick's 2nd press conference begins just as he's addressing the issue of inflation pressure. He addresses it in more detail later on, but at this point he only says detecting inflation pressure is difficult:
Bellichick said the trials they ran picking out underinflated footballs
He also does not play quarterback. Please describe those trials.
I'll do better than that. This video from later on in Bellichick's 2nd press conference begins just as he's describing those trials. He says that detecting a 1 psi drop wasn't possible, while detecting a 2 psi drop was hit or miss:
If you watch the entire video you'll see that Bellichick describes how the balls are delivered to the referees immediately after being prepped. Bellichick says being prepped can increase the pressure by as much as 1 psi, which is completely consistent with a ball increasing in temperature due to friction and proximity to a warm body. If the referees then inflate the balls right after being prepped (keep in mind that the referees are not inflating the balls from scratch, they're just adjusting the pressure to what the team requests) then there will be as much as a 1 psi drop when they return to room temperature, and another 1 to 2 psi drop when they are sent out onto the field where the temperature was around 40 degrees by halftime.
And why was one of the twelve footballs at a higher pressure than the rest? I proposed a possible scenario in an earlier message. The refs had inflated eleven footballs when they were interrupted. They had a 15 minute conversation, then inflated the last football, which had by then cooled to room temperature.
Or another scenario: They were interrupted just as the last football was about to be inflated, then misremembered that it hadn't been inflated and mistakenly marked it inflated. If the footballs had all originally been inflated around 13.5 then this last football would have had higher pressure than the rest.
Maybe someone with a gauge in his pocket?
Possibly. But perhaps that person had some reason to suspect under-inflation.
I'll bet he did have a reason. But that reason was likely that he didn't trust Bellichick and already had suspicions of underinflation, not that he could tell the ball was underinflated.
What most of the press coverage ignores is that there's no direct evidence of Patriot wrongdoing. The balls measured underinflated, but many factors affect inflation pressure.
Playing in the northeast in an outdoor stadium, it's not unheard of for the Patriots to have night games (around an 8:30 start time) where the temperature drops more than 20 degrees during the game. Keeping the balls within the legal range during these games would be a significant headache, but if everyone's so sure that inflation pressure can have so significant an impact on game outcome that purposefully tampering with it is cheating of the highest degree justifying calls for things like banning from the Superbowl, million dollar fines, loss of 1st round draft picks for years, etc., then the NFL better get right on this and put procedures in place that will guarantee that ball pressure remains in range for the entire game.
But if ball pressure is largely inconsequential, which it probably is, then this is far too much ado about nothing. But reputations are being trashed with no evidence (so far), and that's not right.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 12:26 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 01-27-2015 2:14 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 34 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 2:26 PM Percy has replied
 Message 36 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 2:37 PM Percy has replied

  
Tempe 12ft Chicken
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 438
From: Tempe, Az.
Joined: 10-25-2012


Message 33 of 466 (748632)
01-27-2015 2:14 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Percy
01-27-2015 2:10 PM


Re: Science Takes the Stage
Percy writes:
And you can bounce a football in such a way? Again, impressive
It appears that as long as you know where to contact the ball into the ground, you can dribble a football as well.
NFL Football Dribble
Edited by Tempe 12ft Chicken, : No reason given.

The theory of evolution by cumulative natural selection is the only theory we know of that is in principle capable of explaining the existence of organized complexity. - Richard Dawkins
Creationists make it sound as though a 'theory' is something you dreamt up after being drunk all night. - Issac Asimov
If you removed all the arteries, veins, & capillaries from a person’s body, and tied them end-to-endthe person will die. - Neil Degrasse Tyson
What would Buddha do? Nothing! What does the Buddhist terrorist do? Goes into the middle of the street, takes the gas, *pfft*, Self-Barbecue. The Christian and the Muslim on either side are yelling, "What the Fuck are you doing?" The Buddhist says, "Making you deal with your shit. - Robin Williams

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 Message 32 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 2:10 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

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NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 34 of 466 (748633)
01-27-2015 2:26 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Percy
01-27-2015 2:10 PM


Re: Science Takes the Stage
Squeezing it between my hands, and attempting to 'palm' a basketball with each of my left and right hand would be enough to detect under inflation and over inflation of a standard size and weight men's basketball.
Impressive.
Not really, Percy. It just means that I have handled basketballs and checked their pressures reasonably often.
And you can bounce a football in such a way? Again, impressive.
You seem to be mocking me, Percy. Well that's your right. But I've seen people 'dribble' a football on a table for a few bounces. I cannot do it myself, but I don't have particularly good 'handles'. Whether or not you could detect the pressure differences in question with such bouncing is speculation on my part.
A number of players have expressed preferences which suggests (but of course does not prove) that differences in pressure are meaningful.
Have you considered the possibility that your skill at detecting inflation pressure is just special?
I suspect instead that you haven't handled very many official basketballs. There's nothing particularly special about it.
This video of Bellichick's 2nd press conference begins just as he's addressing the issue of inflation pressure. He addresses it in more detail later on, but at this point he only says detecting inflation pressure is difficult:
Perhaps Bellichick is unable to tell the difference. Perhaps lots of people cannot. But given my own experience, I suspect that only more detail, and not simple denials from Bellichick are going to be required. At least for me anyway.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 2:10 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 46 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 4:35 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 35 of 466 (748634)
01-27-2015 2:29 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
01-27-2015 2:14 PM


Re: Science Takes the Stage
It appears that as long as you know where to contact the ball into the ground, you can dribble a football as well.
Thanks 12 chicken.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 01-27-2015 2:14 PM Tempe 12ft Chicken has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 36 of 466 (748635)
01-27-2015 2:37 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Percy
01-27-2015 2:10 PM


Re: Science Takes the Stage
And why was one of the twelve footballs at a higher pressure than the rest? I proposed a possible scenario in an earlier message. The refs had inflated eleven footballs when they were interrupted. They had a 15 minute conversation, then inflated the last football, which had by then cooled to room temperature.
Again, the temperature of the skin of the football is largely irrelevant.
Inflating an already inflated football takes a few seconds. The pressure is going to be dominated by the temperature of the air put into the ball from the room. Your scenario does not work.
There may or may not be enough evidence to make a call. The problem is the uncertainties surrounding the information that we do have. I have no idea how you are making the call that there is insufficient evidence.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 2:10 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 48 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 4:39 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 37 of 466 (748636)
01-27-2015 2:49 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 12:33 PM


Re: It Just Doesn't Stop
NoNukes writes:
That said, why are Aikman and Brunnel not credible to you?
They are plenty credible to me when they talking about what they know, but in this case they're talking through their hats. As quoted in Ex-players react: Brady‘s cluelessness ‘unbelievable’ Troy Aikman said:
Troy Aikman writes:
It’s obvious that Tom Brady had something to do with this. For the balls to be deflated, that doesn't happen unless the quarterback wants that to happen, I can assure you of that. Now the question becomes: Did Bill Belichick know about it?
I don't think Aikman is privy to any special knowledge. He doesn't know the balls were deflated, and if they were, he doesn't know Brady was involved.
Here's Mark Brunell:
Mark Brunell writes:
I did not believe what Tom had to say. Those balls were deflated. Someone had to do it and I don’t believe there’s an equipment manager in the NFL that would on his own initiative deflate a ball without the starting quarterback’s approval. I just didn’t believe what Tom Brady had to say.
Same for Brunell. He doesn't know the balls were deflated, and if they were, he doesn't know Brady was involved.
Some of the stories about the testing would seem to rule out changes in temperature being an issue, but who knows if those stories are accurate?
Given PV=nRT, how could temperature fail to be a factor? There is a lot being written out there that is self-evidently very ignorant of the ideal gas law.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 12:33 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 4:36 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 38 of 466 (748637)
01-27-2015 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 12:43 PM


Re: Science Begins Receiving Mainstream Attention
NoNukes writes:
The temperature of the air in the ball is what determines the pressure/volume and not the skin temperature of the ball, which might be something different at least during filling. Your explanation should be about how hot air got put into the ball.
The increased temperature of the skin and bladder would be transmitted to the air inside. The footballs are already inflated when they're prepped, and they're still inflated when they're delivered to the referees. All the refs have to do is slightly adjust the pressure of each ball to the requested pressure. This only requires a slight pump or release - very little air would be added or released.
Seriously, Percy? You sound like someone who wants this pressure idea to work.
This is a strange take. It isn't a matter of wanting "this pressure idea to work." This is simple physics involving one of the most famous and honored relationships of all time, PV=nRT. It isn't a matter of wanting it to work but of carefully working out how much it was responsible.
So what happened to the 12 balls that were not under inflated?
There's a lot of misinformation out there. At this point I don't think we have much reliable information about the Colts' balls or the backup balls.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 12:43 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 39 of 466 (748638)
01-27-2015 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 12:51 PM


Re: Bill Nye Gets it Wrong
NoNukes writes:
A football is made of insulating material of unknown heat capacity. How long after you tucked the ball under your jacket would it take to see a significant pressure change. If you kept the ball against your skin for five minutes and then put it back on the table, how high would the pressure get?
While Bellichick didn't carry out these precise experiments, he *did* perform experiments, and he found that prepping the balls increased their pressure by around 1 psi.
Bellichick said he went through a normal game-day preparation of the footballs, so I assume that means he measured the pressure of twelve footballs, then had the quarterbacks (most likely with assistance, probably running backs and some staff) go through their normal prep, then measured the pressure again. He found the pressure increased by around 1 psi.
My pressure gauge isn't convenient, but if you have one that is you could give the experiment you proposed a try. Take an inflated football at room temperature, stick in a pressure gauge, put the football under your shirt with the gauge sticking out between buttons, then write down the pressure every minute and draw a graph.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 12:51 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 40 of 466 (748640)
01-27-2015 3:42 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 2:08 PM


Apparently there are a lot of people, some rather surprising, that do not understand the Ideal Gas Law's relation of temperature to pressure nor that thermodynamics really does work on footballs. Bladder or not, pig skin or not, a football is not made to be insulating.
The Pathfinder kids video shows clearly the drop in pressure when a football is inflated with room temp air then placed in a colder environment. No one, as I am aware, has done a corresponding experiment with different results.
What this means is that Belichick's explanation is viable. Note, I did not say honest or correct, just viable.
As for experts to trust? Someone might want to talk to those Pathfinder kids.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 2:08 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 41 of 466 (748641)
01-27-2015 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
01-27-2015 12:54 PM


Re: Wilson, The Football company disagrees
Tempe 12ft Chicken writes:
According to representatives from Wilson, the company responsible for all of the footballs used in the NFL, Belichick's explanation is BS and doesn't factor in the bladders that each football contains, which do not let air escape them unless there is a defect in the bladder.
Source: Belichick full of hot air
A better link is one from within the article you linked to: 'That's BS': Football Manufacturer Doesn't Seem To Buy Belichick's Explanation. It includes the part you quote here:
Jim Jenkins, Wilson Representative writes:
different environments might cause the PSI inside the ball to change,but "maybe in a year or two." To cause the pressure to change more quickly, Jenkins suggested a ball would have to be placed in a freezer, then thawed.
So, who do you think would have run more experiments on the air contained within footballs, Belichick with his experiments he only ran recently, or the company that has made the footballs for the NFL for the past 70 years?
I think AZPaul3's speculation that the Wilson representative is talking about loss of pressure due to leakage is probably correct. The Wilson rep completely missed that Bellichick was talking about changes in pressure due to temperature fluctuations. That's easy to understand though. Bellichick was obviously unaware of what it was in the different "climatic conditions" (the term he kept using) between inside and outside, but anyone with a little science knowledge knows the overriding factor would be temperature. I think Bellichick's use of the term "climatic conditions" confused the Wilson rep.
Another scientist has come out stating that Belichick's experiments are not correct also, a man named Neil DeGrasse Tyson.
NdGT writes:
For the Patriots to blame a change in temperature for 15% lower-pressures, requires balls to be inflated with 125-degree air.
Source
...I'd like to see one of them actually run the calculations,...
I went through the calculations and Tyson is correct. If you plug the figures into the natural gas law, then in order for the gas at a temperature of 45 degrees to be 15% below it's original pressure of 13 psi, given constant volume the original temperature would have to been 125 degrees (all values approximate), 80 degrees higher.
But in my Message 8 I describe the experiment I conducted where I measured a 2 psi difference when changing a football's temperature between 30 and 74 degrees, a difference of a mere 44 degrees instead of 80 in Tyson's calculation. Obviously something else is going on since the pressure dropped by about twice as much as the ideal gas law predicts. My gauge is digital and reads in .5 psi increments, so that's a source of inaccuracy and could account for half the difference. But even using the smaller difference I can't imagine what might have caused it. It can't be decreasing volume, because that would increase pressure.
One possibility is that air is not an ideal gas. The ideal gas law postulates a monatomic gas, but air is made up of molecules of different gases like O2, N2 and CO2. Also, last Sunday night was very rainy, so humidity must have been at or near 100%, but figuring out how to adjust the ideal gas law for air with all its different molecules and humidity is above my pay grade. I did attempt to look it up but it was turning into a time sink.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 01-27-2015 12:54 PM Tempe 12ft Chicken has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 7:48 PM Percy has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 42 of 466 (748642)
01-27-2015 4:07 PM


There has also been a lot of gnashing of teeth over the fact that the Colt's balls (I can't say that without smiling) were within specs when they were tested at halftime as well. People seem to think pressure is pressure and if they are not the same then NE cheated.
The league requires 12.5 to 13.5 psi as the min max. We already know that a temperature change can affect the pressure.
What we also know is that the Pats requested their balls at the very minimum psi while the Colts requested theirs at the maximum.
Any loss of pressure due to temperature would put the Pats in violation, while the same drop would have kept the Colts within specs.
As far as I am aware, the actual pressure results (actual numbers to the significant digit) for the halftime tests on each ball, both teams, have not been released. Anyone know?

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 43 of 466 (748644)
01-27-2015 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
01-27-2015 1:26 PM


Tempe 12ft Chicken writes:
Also, there is some complaints I have found about Neil DeGrasse Tyson's calculations, claiming he was confusing gauge pressure and absolute pressure.
Obviously I made the same mistake when I confirmed Tyson's calculations. Repeating the calculation with absolute pressure and applying the ideal gas law again tells us that a temperature change of 40 degrees Fahrenheit would be sufficient to change football pressure by around 15% (of gauge pressure).
So if the temperature inside the stadium rooms was 70 degrees and the outside temperature was 45 degrees, that's only a difference of 25 degrees, 15 degrees short of the required 40 degree difference. We need the footballs to have started at a temperature of around 85 or 90, not 70.
This is where the process of prepping the footballs comes in. If prepping the footballs raises their temperature to 85 or 90, not unreasonable given all the handling by beefy guys around 98.6o, and then the footballs are immediately delivered to the referees, then there's the answer.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 01-27-2015 1:26 PM Tempe 12ft Chicken has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 45 by herebedragons, posted 01-27-2015 4:31 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 44 of 466 (748645)
01-27-2015 4:18 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by NoNukes
01-27-2015 2:08 PM


NoNukes writes:
The volume of an inflated ball is not constant, nor does it increase proportional to pressure.
Yes, this is true, but the leather skin constrains the flexible inner bladder. The leather skin will expand and contract somewhat with changing pressure, but the change should be very modest for modest pressure changes, which is what we're talking about here.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by NoNukes, posted 01-27-2015 2:08 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
herebedragons
Member (Idle past 858 days)
Posts: 1517
From: Michigan
Joined: 11-22-2009


Message 45 of 466 (748647)
01-27-2015 4:31 PM
Reply to: Message 43 by Percy
01-27-2015 4:13 PM


So if the temperature inside the stadium rooms was 70 degrees and the outside temperature was 45 degrees, that's only a difference of 25 degrees, 15 degrees short of the required 40 degree difference. We need the footballs to have started at a temperature of around 85 or 90, not 70.
Consider that its not the temperature of the ROOM where the balls were filled, but the temperature of the AIR that went INTO the balls that would need to be 85 or 90 deg. It is not unusual that an air compressor would heat the air as it compresses it.
I don't know, this is one of the strangest "scandals" I have ever heard of. What puzzles me is why does the NFL not supply balls or at least have an official who is responsible to inflate them?
HBD

Whoever calls me ignorant shares my own opinion. Sorrowfully and tacitly I recognize my ignorance, when I consider how much I lack of what my mind in its craving for knowledge is sighing for... I console myself with the consideration that this belongs to our common nature. - Francesco Petrarca
"Nothing is easier than to persuade people who want to be persuaded and already believe." - another Petrarca gem.
Ignorance is a most formidable opponent rivaled only by arrogance; but when the two join forces, one is all but invincible.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 4:13 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by Percy, posted 01-27-2015 4:48 PM herebedragons has replied
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