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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 256 of 955 (874219)
03-26-2020 8:20 PM
Reply to: Message 255 by Percy
03-26-2020 7:04 PM


Re: We're the new record holder!


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
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Coragyps
Member (Idle past 734 days)
Posts: 5553
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002


(1)
Message 257 of 955 (874220)
03-26-2020 8:30 PM
Reply to: Message 255 by Percy
03-26-2020 7:04 PM


Re: We're the new record holder!
USA! USA! Uh.....never mind.....

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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 258 of 955 (874221)
03-26-2020 8:37 PM
Reply to: Message 257 by Coragyps
03-26-2020 8:30 PM


Re: We're the new record holder!
Well we have had two 100+ days so far this month and quite a few 95+ days so we are all safe. All the folk in the Valley that say they tested positive must just be wrong since hot weather kills the virus.
AbE:
Can't believe them folk in South Florida or Louisiana either.
Edited by jar, : see AbE

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

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dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 259 of 955 (874222)
03-26-2020 10:09 PM
Reply to: Message 228 by JonF
03-25-2020 3:45 PM


Re: Today's Cuomo Press Conference
I wouldn't be comfortable with hooking up another patient on my wife's ventilator other than some last resort.
That is exactly what it is. It's a desperate last-resort measure where the alternative is a patient's death.
Rachel Maddow is discussing the situation tonight. In the medical emergency of treating large numbers of shooting victims at the 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting, the ER room had to resort to Macgyvering ventilators to treat two patients instead of just one. Because the only alternative was the death of a patient.
Large mammal vets (never could figure whether that described the vet or his patients) are volunteering their ventilators, though my understanding is that many of those need to worked manually. Hospitals are looking into emergency conversion of anaesthetic machines into makeshift ventilators. Because that's what every hospital in every individual state has to do because of the near-total lack of any leadership at the federal level.
Early in the hour, Maddow reports on several governors who all tell the same story. They cannot get the medical equipment they need (eg, protective equipment, ventilators) because they are literally bidding against all the other states and even the federal government for that vital equipment. With the companies operating on a purely voluntary basis, they are applying free market principles of supply and demand to sell to the highest bidder, which also is driving up the price for everybody else.
Right now, Trump has dumped everybody in an "every man for himself" fuster cluck that is a sure-fire guarantee for disaster. He has the Defense Production Act to use, but he won't use it. What is vitally needed a week ago is for the federal government to direct industry to produce what's need, to place orders for the needed equipment, and then to use the federal government's logistics capabilities ("we're not shipping clerks"? -- hasn't Trump ever heard of the Defense Logistics Agency? Or that true military professionals study logistics, not battles?) to get the needed equipment where it needs to be when it needs to be there (and then to the next place it needs to be).
Every state is on a different curve, each of which will peak at different times. Gov. Cuomo has described the scenario as first putting the resources to fight the first peak, then shift those resources to the next hot-spot to deal with it, then on the the next hot-spot, etc. Right now, that will never happen. But if the federal government were to do its job then it could plan out where and when each of those hot-spots will peak and hence plan out the logistics required to get that needed equipment redeployed where it needs to be in time to be effective.
Leaving every state entirely on its own competing with each other and with the federal government with absolutely no coordination within the entire national system is sheer madness, if your goal were to deal with this pandemic. So what is Trump's actual goal? Is there some kind of money-making scheme in play? Or maybe he wants this to explode into a complete disaster such that he can declare absolute emergency powers, including postponing the November elections indefinitely?
One of Rachel Maddow's guests tonight was the Commanding Officer of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Watch it! He knows what his troops need to do and they are preparing for immediate mobilization. All he needs is the Word from the White House to move and directions of what needs to be done. How many more weeks have to pass before Trump can get up from sitting on his thumb and finally give the Word?

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 261 by Percy, posted 03-27-2020 7:51 AM dwise1 has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 260 of 955 (874225)
03-27-2020 7:43 AM


So, now our glorious leader Boris has it and is self-isolating in 10 Downing Street. Probably means a lot of others in our government and senior civil service have too: it's all very democratic.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 261 of 955 (874226)
03-27-2020 7:51 AM
Reply to: Message 259 by dwise1
03-26-2020 10:09 PM


Re: Today's Cuomo Press Conference
dwise1 writes:
One of Rachel Maddow's guests tonight was the Commanding Officer of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Watch it! He knows what his troops need to do and they are preparing for immediate mobilization. All he needs is the Word from the White House to move and directions of what needs to be done.
I expect Trump will take action very quickly - to remove this person from his post.
To everyone: Ignoring the Trump razzing, you should read DWise1's above post because it lists some important parts of the federal role in this disaster that aren't receiving enough attention.
Trump is using the daily coronavirus briefings and his other opportunities for airtime to campaign. He's the only one campaigning right now. "Equal time" opportunities should be given to the Democrats after each of his appearances.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Correct post attribution.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 288 by dwise1, posted 03-28-2020 3:22 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 262 of 955 (874227)
03-27-2020 7:58 AM


Sports Betting Turns to Trump
There’s no sports for betting. So, sports book posted an over/under on Trump’s words tells us that with no sports to bet on that gambling sites have turned their sights on Trump:
quote:
SportsBettingDime.com has posted Over/Under numbers on the words and phrases the president regularly uses in his daily coronavirus pandemic media briefings.
...
Now, for President Trump’s daily news briefings, the highest number for SportsBettingDime is 24.5, the number of times the words fantastic, incredible, amazing, and tremendous will be said as a group. Separate them, and oddsmakers think fantastic will be said the most, as it’s solo Over/Under is 8.5.
The lowest totals are for the phrases not our fault, working very hard, and we’re doing a great job, each is 2.5 by itself. You can’t bet them in combination, however.
I'll take the over on "we're doing a great job."
--Percy

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 263 of 955 (874228)
03-27-2020 8:04 AM


Trump Out of Touch With Reality
Trump continues to express his wish to open the country up and get back to work against the advice of almost all relevant health experts and just as we've achieved the highest level of coronavirus infections in the world. All news organizations are reporting this, one article is https://www.cnbc.com/...ekend-on-plan-to-reopen-economy.html.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 265 by jar, posted 03-27-2020 9:23 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 264 of 955 (874229)
03-27-2020 8:48 AM
Reply to: Message 262 by Percy
03-27-2020 7:58 AM


Re: Sports Betting Turns to Trump
I'm pretty sure someone must have created a drinking game based on Trump's press conferences.
"I know more about coronavirus than anyone."
"EVERYBODY CHUG!"

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 265 of 955 (874231)
03-27-2020 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 263 by Percy
03-27-2020 8:04 AM


Re: Trump Out of Touch With Reality
There are vast areas of the US where it is very reasonable to restart all the local industry; most of Montana and Wyoming, North and South Dakota, the High Desert of California, Death Valley, non-urban Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, the Texas Ranch Country, Florida Everglades ...
Lets get all those workers back on their jobs!

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

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Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 266 of 955 (874232)
03-27-2020 9:45 AM
Reply to: Message 255 by Percy
03-26-2020 7:04 PM


The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
Read it and weep. The graph's tooltip says the most recent data point is from two days ago, but the 84,000 number is about what I heard last night, so I think the latest data point is actually from yesterday:
This is a fairly ideal exponential curve, and where it's going can be projected fairly accurately. I project US infection numbers will be these in the coming days:
DateNumber Infections
by Evening
3/27/2020109,000
3/28/2020144,000
3/29/2020193,000
3/30/2020262,000
3/31/2020359,000
4/1/2020495,000
4/2/2020685,000
4/3/2020951,000
4/4/20201,323,000
So I project that on Saturday, April 4, 2020, the number of US coronavirus infections will surpass a million by a substantial margin. That's only a little over a week away.
If 6% require a ventilator that is 80,000 ventilators, but patients probably won't all need them at the same time, so that helps a little. The country began with about 160,000 ventilators and 13,000 in the national stockpile. I've heard that a large percentage of our ventilators, nearly half, are neonatal ventilators, and I'm not sure if the figures I've cited include those ventilators or not. Neonatal ventilators are not appropriate for adults. Also, I've seen it mentioned that a number of ventilators are older outmoded models probably not appropriate for severe cases.
The shortage of ventilators will first become apparent in New York, which I estimate has around 15,000 ventilators now. Given where the numbers are going to be in a week, and given that a high percentage of all cases will still be in New York, their estimate of needing 40,000 ventilators sounds about right, even though Trump was on Hannity last night saying that he didn't believe the number would be that high. Trump is a ding dong who know little or nothing about almost everything, so it's pretty safe to assume he's wrong, especially since it goes against expert estimates and advice.
--Percy

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Replies to this message:
 Message 267 by Chiroptera, posted 03-27-2020 10:04 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 268 by kjsimons, posted 03-27-2020 10:07 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 269 by NosyNed, posted 03-27-2020 10:20 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 270 by JonF, posted 03-27-2020 10:41 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 290 by Percy, posted 03-28-2020 6:42 AM Percy has replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 267 of 955 (874233)
03-27-2020 10:04 AM
Reply to: Message 266 by Percy
03-27-2020 9:45 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
From the Guardian:
Coronavirus mapped: which countries have the most cases and deaths?
I say this article yesterday. (It's dated this morning, so perhaps it's updated regularly.) It has several graphs comparing various countries around the world.
Whereas China's rates of new cased and deaths have flatten out, the US curve is pretty much a straight line - on a logarithmic scale, which means the rate is pretty much exponential.

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

This message is a reply to:
 Message 266 by Percy, posted 03-27-2020 9:45 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
kjsimons
Member
Posts: 821
From: Orlando,FL
Joined: 06-17-2003
Member Rating: 6.7


Message 268 of 955 (874234)
03-27-2020 10:07 AM
Reply to: Message 266 by Percy
03-27-2020 9:45 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
About those ventilators, I've heard one issue with this virus is that the patient is needing to be put on them for ten or more days rather than 3-4 which ties them up longer than 'normal'. This exacerbates the shortage of ventilators.

This message is a reply to:
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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 269 of 955 (874235)
03-27-2020 10:20 AM
Reply to: Message 266 by Percy
03-27-2020 9:45 AM


Silly Percy
Didn't you read where Faith says "nobody knows". You can't use that math stuff to make things up. Faith told you that you can't. Has she ever been wrong?

This message is a reply to:
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JonF
Member (Idle past 168 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


(1)
Message 270 of 955 (874236)
03-27-2020 10:41 AM
Reply to: Message 266 by Percy
03-27-2020 9:45 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
The Administration line now is that we don't need anywhere near that number of ventilators.
Retooling a GM plant for ventilators is too expensive.

This message is a reply to:
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